Keys to Stability in the Balkans.

In the aftermath of the NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, instability has continued to plague the Balkan region. Inter-ethnic violence persists in Kosovo, and a prominent Yugoslav Army general has warned that Yugoslav troops could be sent back into Kosovo to defend the Serb minority. At the same time, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)--reluctant to disarm--has virtually seized power in the province and is determined to maintain its dominance. Although NATO has achieved its short-term goals, including the return of the Kosovar Albanian refugees to their homes, the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo, and the deployment of a multinational force with NATO at its core, no progress has been made in achieving ethnic reconciliation. Clinton administration officials have condemned the continuing violence in Kosovo and the revenge attacks against Serbs. Nevertheless, NATO's Kosovo Force (KFOR) appears to be unable and unwilling to prevent further violence against Serb civilians. A radical shift in policy would be necessary to bring about a lasting peace in the region.

The KLA has made no secret of its intentions to maintain political control over the province and has set up a shadow government. As Chris Hedges has reported in the New York Times, this self-declared provisional government has confiscated property and extorted money from business owners in Kosovo's urban centers. The KLA has had a poor record in complying with NATO's provisions for demilitarization. Reports suggest, for example, that KLA forces have concealed heavy weapons that were supposed to be placed under KFOR control in July 1999. In the meantime, Hashim Thaci, the self-declared KLA provisional government's prime minister, has appointed friends and relatives to key government posts and has vowed to stay in power until elections are held. Increasingly, Kosovar Albanians are complaining of human rights abuses by the KLA and have felt intimidated by the overwhelming presence of armed KLA soldiers. The KLA continues to advocate for an independent Kosovo, but such a position has no support among the NATO allies. It is unlikely the KLA will give up this basic demand, and there are fears that a KLA-KFOR confrontation could result.

Since the end of the NATO bombing campaign, Serbia remains solidly under President Slobodan Milosevic's control. The opposition has continued to show signs of weakness, including internal squabbles and a lack of clear leadership. The U.S. has vowed not to rebuild Serbia unless Milosevic is removed from power. Yet, it is unrealistic to expect that the Serbian people, exhausted by war and economic collapse, can now overthrow him in a popular revolution. Moreover, even when and if Milosevic is removed from power, there is no guarantee that his successor will pursue a different Kosovo policy. A weak and unstable Serbia will promote, rather than diminish, instability in the Balkans.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia faces instability on another front as well. The Montenegrin government has submitted a proposal for broader political autonomy within Yugoslavia. Milo Djukanovic, the Montenegrin president, has threatened to call for a referendum on independence if Serbia fails to agree to this plan. There are approximately 30,000 Yugoslav Army troops stationed in Montenegro, and it is possible that a Montenegrin declaration of independence could result in a military confrontation similar to what occurred when Slovenia and Croatia seceded from Yugoslavia in 1991. Montenegro is strategically even more important to Serbia than Kosovo, because it serves as Serbia's sole outlet to the Adriatic. It is unlikely that a Belgrade regime would readily accept an independent Montenegrin state. A confrontation there could potentially spill over to neighboring Croatia and Bosnia and could jeopardize the status of the ethnic Albanian minority in Montenegro.