Kerry with Large Lead Going into the California Primary and Many Voters Still Undecided on the Bond, Balanced Budget Propositions, According to New Hoover-Knowledge Networks Poll.

News Editors/Political Writers

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 27, 2004

A new Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey finds that among registered voters likely to vote in the California Democratic primary, John Kerry leads John Edwards by more than a 2-to-1 margin. When given the actual presidential primary ballot, 50 percent of the respondents "voted" for Kerry, 20 percent for Edwards, with the rest divided among the remaining candidates listed on the ballot (even though in most cases these candidates have terminated their candidacies).

Kerry's strength is remarkably uniform across all groups and viewpoints. He defeats Edwards easily (50 percent to 22 percent) even among voters who oppose free trade and NAFTA. Kerry's support is especially strong in the Bay Area and in Southern California. The gap between Kerry and Edwards is lowest among 18-29 year olds (26 percent for Kerry, 17 percent for Edwards). Kerry's support comes almost equally from men and women (51 percent and 49 percent), while Edwards is running strongest among women (27 percent compared to 12 percent among men).

The poll finds that many Californians likely to vote in the Democratic primary remain unaware of the Democratic presidential candidates' positions on major issues. Voters were asked whether Kerry and Edwards favored free trade or protectionism. Sixty-one percent were unaware of Senator Edwards' position, while 58 percent could not place Senator Kerry on the issue. Similarly, 59 percent of the sample was unable to say whether Senator Edwards favored unilateral or multilateral military intervention; for Kerry, the percentage unaware of his position was 49 percent.

The poll also finds that a large fraction of the voters have not made up their minds about the propositions on the ballot. Among voters with a preference, two out of three favor Proposition 57, which authorizes a one-time bond issue to reduce the state deficit. Forty-four percent of voters favor the measure, 22 percent are opposed, and 34 percent remain undecided. Proposition 58, which requires the state to maintain a balanced budget, is supported by a majority of 55 percent, while 18 percent intend to vote against the measure and 27 percent have yet to decide. The major division on both ballot measures is not by party, but based on voters' evaluations of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The public clearly recognizes that Governor Schwarzenegger supports both measures. Among voters who approve of Schwarzenegger's performance as Governor, both measures win by wide margins (57 percent in favor of Proposition 57 and 70 percent in favor of Proposition 58).

The survey was administered to a random adult sample of the Knowledge Networks web-enabled panel between February 23rd and February 26th. The analysis is based on interviews with 505 registered voters likely to vote in the primary election. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the analysis of the full sample and +/- 6.3 percentage points for the analysis of the voter preferences for the Democratic candidates.

The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2nd. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.

This is the second of three surveys prior to the California primary. The results of the first survey were released on February 18th. The results of the third survey, which will be released Monday, March 1, will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.

Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research is available at http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.

For more information, contact: J. Michael Dennis, VP and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, Client Service; 650-289-2160, email: [e-mail].

All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.

PRESS CONTACTS:

-- David Brady, Hoover Senior Fellow and Deputy Director,

650-723-9702 or 650-723-0713

-- Shanto Iyengar, Stanford University, 650-723-5509

-- Michael Dennis, Knowledge Networks, 650-289-2160

Methodological Note

The poll was conducted using the Knowledge Networks web-enabled panel, which provides a representative sample of Californian households (see http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp).

The survey results were weighted to U.S. Census population benchmarks for adults residing in the State of California in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education obtainment, and urban/rural, and to the California Secretary of State records for political party identification.

Contact information for questions about the methodology: J. Michael Dennis, [e-mail], [phone].