Kerry winning on paper.

Byline: The Register-Guard

If the Electoral College were made up of newspaper editors, John Kerry would be coasting to victory. Most of the nation's newspapers that endorse presidential candidates have done so. According to Editor & Publisher, a trade magazine of the newspaper industry, 149 daily papers as of Wednesday have endorsed Kerry, while 126 have urged that President Bush be re-elected.

Newspaper endorsements have a negligible effect on voters' decisions in presidential races (though John F. Kennedy, after unexpectedly receiving The New York Times' endorsement, said he looked forward to being able to say "I found my job through the Times"). In top-of-the-ticket races, endorsement editorials are meant to give readers an informed perspective on the issues, and to provide a summary of the reasons for supporting one candidate or the other.

Yet it's revealing that among people whose peculiar job it is to observe, analyze and comment on public affairs, Kerry has the lead. The Massachusetts senator's lead is even larger in terms of newspaper circulation. The papers that have endorsed Kerry have a combined circulation of 17.7 million, while the newspapers that support Bush sell 11.6 million copies.

What's more, the pro-Kerry group includes 38 newspapers that supported George W. Bush in 2000, but switched to the Democrat this year. Another nine newspapers made no recommendation this year after endorsing Bush in 2000. Only six newspapers that endorsed Vice President Al Gore four years ago are now supporting Bush's re-election.

Kerry has a strong lead in Oregon, where he has won the editorial support of The Register-Guard, The Oregonian, The (Salem) Statesman-Journal, The (Medford) Mail-Tribune, The (Coos Bay) World, The (Pendleton) East Oregonian and the Daily Astorian. Bush has the support of The (Roseburg) News-Review, the (Albany) Democrat-Herald, The (Grants Pass) Daily Courier, The (Bend) Bulletin and The (Ontario) Argus-Observer.

Before anyone seizes upon Kerry's edge in endorsements as proof of liberal media bias, Editor & Publisher notes that most of the nation's newspapers, particularly smaller ones, have tended to support Republican presidential candidates in the past. And while the 72 largest papers in the country have split 3-2 in Kerry's favor, Gore and Bush divided the big newspapers' endorsements evenly in 2000.

Conservatism is the default ideological orientation of most newspapers. The difference this year is that when many editors examine Bush's record, they do not see the familiar style of American conservatism, but something strongly tinged with radical elements.