Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Hoover-Knowledge Networks Poll.

News Editors/Political Writers

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 18, 2004

Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)

Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).

The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.

The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans.

Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor's performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger's popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry 62-38.

There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14).

The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.

This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.

Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research, is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp. For more information, contact: J. Michael Dennis, VP and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, Client Service; 650-289-2160, email: [e-mail].

All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.

Appendix to the News Announcement for the
Stanford University Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks
California Primary Election Survey
February 18, 2004

Survey Results

    The results are from 567 interviews conducted between February 4
and February 13 with registered voters in California. The survey was
conducted by Knowledge Networks
(http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with Stanford
University's Hoover Institution. This is the first of two surveys to
be conducted on the California primary election. The second survey
will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days
immediately before the election and the most important California
propositions.

Bush-Kerry Trial Heat Results by Party ID Among Registered Voters

                    All       Dems      Rep       Ind
Bush                38         7        80        29
Kerry               42        79         7        26
Can't Say           20        14        12        45

N=560

Excluding can't say:

                    All       Dems      Rep       Ind

Bush                48         8        92        53
Kerry               52        92         8        47

N=450

Bush-Edwards Trial Heat Results by Party ID Among Registered Voters

                    All       Dems      Rep       Ind
Bush                39         8        81        34
Edwards             36        67         5        21
Can't Say           25        25        14        45

N=562

Excluding can't say:

                    All       Dems      Rep       Ind

Bush                52        11        94        61
Edwards             48        89         6        39

N=422


Percent Voting for Bush (excluding 'can't say' responses) by Party ID
Among Registered Voters:

Democrats                8
Republicans             92
Independent/Other       53

Bush versus Kerry: Policy Preferences by Preference to Vote for Bush
vs. Kerry (Example: 81 percent of those who favor unilateral
intervention report a preference for Bush over Kerry)

                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
Favor unilateral intervention                     81           19
In-between                                        62           38
Favor intervention only w/ UN approval            19           81

                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
Support free trade                                68           32
In-between                                        39           61
Support protecting US industries                  41           59

                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
Top priority to war on Terrorism                  85           15
In-between                                        51           49
Top priority to Domestic issues                   10           90


Bush Performance on Iraq
                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
On Iraq (good + very good)                        95            5
In-between (fair)                                 68           32
Disapprove (poor + very poor)                      3           97

Bush Performance on Economy
                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
Approve on Economy                                95            5
In-between                                        19           81
Disapprove                                         2           98

Governor Schwarzenegger Approval Ratings
                                          Favor Bush  Favor Kerry
Approve                                           62           38
Disapprove                                        11           89

Do you favor Repubs or Dems on:

         Terrorism  Healthcare  Education  Economy

Reps            50          20         26       31
Dems            19          52         46       42
No diff         31          28         28       28


Percent voting for Bush by:

Favor Reps on terror          92
Favor Dems                     0
No diff                       13

Favor Reps on econ            93
Favor Dems on econ             3
No diff                       55

Favor Reps on health         100
Favor Dems                    12
No diff                       69

Methodological Note

The poll was conducted February 4 through February 13 using the Knowledge Networks web-enabled panel, which provides a representative sample of Californian households (see http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp).

The sampling margin of error for the sample 567 likely voters adults is 4.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The survey results were weighted to U.S. Census population benchmarks for adults residing in the State of California in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education obtainment, and urban/rural, and to the California Secretary of State records for political party identification.

Contact information for questions about the methodology: J. Michael Dennis, [e-mail], [phone].