Keeping track of TV trends is the latest trend.

Following the trends of American television is becoming quite trendy among international TV executives. It helps to make an educated guess whether or not a new pilot will make the come judgment day after the November sweeps, and to estimate the number of episodes the commissioning network will ultimately order for the next season, without waiting until MIPCOM to find out.

According to a recent survey by Leflein Associates of Fort Lee, New Jersey, when asked what type of television shows Americans will watch, mystery programs scored highest. Leflein estimated 68 percent of American viewers will tune into a good whodunit. Second to mysery in attracting a potential audience were family value sitcoms (65 percent); entertainment/variety programs ranked third (64 percent). The fourth rated program type (predicted to attract 51 percent of U.S. viewers) was the cutting-edge social comedy.

Mystery shows have the strongest appeal among older demos (particularly the 45- to 54-year-old audience), with women expressing a stronger viewer interest (71 percent) than men (66 percent). Family-value sitcoms have a strong appeal among minorities, people in the mid-to-lower income brackets, occupants of Southeastern U.S., households with children and people aged 25 to 44.

Entertainment/variety shows appeal to households with kids and those in the lower socio-economic category. Cutting-edge social comedies might appeal to younger adults, college grads and individuals in larger households. In addition, the survey found that the following program types can also be used to target men: Westerns (55 percent of men), spy programs (55 percent) and sci-fi fare (50 percent). Women favor animal programs (55 percent).

These results were somewhat different when compared to a NATPE poll conducted at this year's convention. The NATPE poll recorded that the hottest programming trends on the horizon were: reality shows (28 percent), comedies (17 percent), news magazine shows (12 percent), issue-oriented talk shows (9 percent) and court shows (8 percent), among other program categories.

In its TV Trench newsletter, NATPE compared the number of primetime network series trends for the past season versus 1997-98. The results recorded that the popularity of drama series increased by 1 percent - to 48 percent, sitcoms plummeted 11 percentage points to 60 percent in the 1998-99 season. Reality shows blossomed to 14 percent from 12 percent) and news fell by three points to 12 percent. In syndication, though, the trend is different: reality shows dipped one percentage point to 16 percent, drama dropped by two points to 15 percent and sitcoms climbed one point to 11 percent. One could then spot common ground between viewers' and TV executives' preferences as to sitcoms (both rated them second).

Similarly, with a 44 percent preference, trial shows placed last on the consumer list and again last on the professional list with 8 percent. Scanning the program genre output from the networks, it is clear that the industry is reacting to viewers preferences.

A side note from NATPE's TV Trench is that network-produced series do not have deficits, while most of the other series carry deficits ranging from $250,000 per episode to $500,000.

There is another trend to consider. This broadcast season was the first without any regular prime time series averaging a rating of 20. In contrast, when Video Age began publishing special L.A. Screenings reports in the 1988-89 season, there were seven series that overcame this ratings hurdle.

Having failed to produce any sizable live-action hits, American television has reverted to cartoons, with five animated primetime series airing this fall between Fox and UPN. Another trend that is differentiating cable TV from broadcast networks - an abundance of original TV movies on cable channels.

Consider a European trend, Italy's RAI is experimenting with a license fee tied to ratings, to get more value for its money. For the series A Doctor in the Family, RAI paid the production house the equivalent of $290,000 per episode for a 28 percent share. If the program gets higher ratings, the producer will receive a bonus of $115,000 for the episode.