KUWAIT - The OPEC Countries - Part 6.

The decision-making superstructure in Kuwait is coming under increasing strain. The ruler and crown prince, Shaikh Jabir Al Ahmad Al Sabah and Shaikh Saad Al Sabah respectively, are both in their 70s and are in uncertain health. The third man in line, First Deputy Premier and Foreign Minister Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah has a weak heart and is fitted with a pacemaker.

A clear-cut line of succession is not obvious to the political groups in the country, which has the most democratised system in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). So medium-term stability in Kuwait will be a function of whether the elements of the ruling family can agree upon a ruler and whether the parliament will respond positively.

However, instability is not likely to create chaos, observers say, although there may be a period of some confusion while the ruling Al Sabah family tries to forge an agreement among its branches on the next ruler after Shaikhs Jabir, Saad and Sabah. The medium term in the Kuwaiti situation could be anything from two to five years. In the short-term, things will remain as they are - essentially stable and marked by the peculiarities of the emirate's parliamentary system.

Decision making for the petroleum sector in Kuwait involves a few members of the ruling Al Sabah family and some non-Sabah associates. In the cabinet these few are represented by Shaikh Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmad Al Sabah in his capacity as acting oil minister and acting chairman of the state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC). Having assumed the role on Feb. 10, 2002, after the resignation of his predecessor Adel Al Subaih, Shaikh Ahmed is expected to remain in his post until parliamentary elections in mid-2003.

In general terms, the emirate's decision-making system has improved since the 1990 Gulf crisis. There is a greater degree of openness and professionalism at the executive level. The strong possibility of damaging publicity, or even criminal charges such as those faced by former oil executives, has limited the chances of corrupt practices spreading within KPC and its various subsidiaries.

Final say for the petroleum sector rests in the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) and this has to be approved by the National Assembly (parliament), after endorsement and submission by the Council of Ministers. In practice, however, power lies in the person of the Emir, Shaikh Jabir Al Ahmad, who can dissolve parliament as he had done before.

The SPC was established in 1974. The SPC law was amended on Jan. 18, 1987, with the stipulation that it should be headed by the prime minister. It should have seven government ministers and six qualified non-ministerial members. The council should meet at least four times a year, or more often in case of emergency. The oil ministry formulates policy decisions, which have to be approved by the SPC and parliament. Execution of decisions is done by the oil ministry and their commercial and technical aspects are executed by KPC.

There are 14 members on the board of KPC. These include eight executive directors: Oil Minister and KPC Chairman Shaikh Ahmad Fahd; Nader Sultan, who is deputy chairman and CEO; Siham Al Razzouqi, who is managing director; and the five heads of KPC's main sectoral units.

The six non-executive members include representatives, at the level of undersecretary, from the ministries of oil, finance, trade, planning and foreign affairs, and a director from the Central Bank. The oil and finance ministries function according to the general orientations of the cabinet, the SPC and the Supreme Council of Planning. They also function according to the specific guidelines of the emir's informal layer of authority, which is controlled by the shaikhs of the Bani Jabir branch of the ruling family.