KUWAIT - OPEC/Oil Price Defence.

A skilled diplomat, Shaikh Saud has played a major role in OPEC's efforts since early 1998 to defend oil prices through production cuts. He was among the few OPEC ministers to insist on further production cuts in early 1999 in order to come up with a credible price defence strategy, also advocating production cut co-operation by non-OPEC states.

His efforts and those of his Algeria, Iranian, Saudi and other OPEC counterparts resulted in an agreement in The Hague on March 12, 1999, under which big production cuts were to be made by OPEC and four non-OPEC states from April 1, 1999 to end-March 2000. The accord was endorsed on March 23 by an OPEC ministerial conference in Vienna attended by ministers from co- operating non-OPEC states. The deal was to defend an average annual price of $18/barrel for Dated Brent.

Now, however, Shaikh Saud is worried that the $18/barrel average might be exceeded during the high gasoline season in the US in the coming summer months and during the high heating oil season in the winter months in late 1999 and early 2000. He said recently that, without an agreed price ceiling and floor, actual Brent prices "could shoot over the roof" and "cause damage" to OPEC price defence strategy.

Shaikh Saud belongs to a distant branch of the ruling Al Sabah family. He built up his career as a barrister and graduated from a London university. In the late 1970s he joined Kuwait's diplomatic corps and was promoted quickly at the foreign ministry. In 1981 he became Kuwait's ambassador to Washington, where he was later to develop a strong pro-Kuwait lobby which helped in the liberation of the emirate from Iraq's occupation in early 1991.

After he was promoted to information minister in 1992, Shaikh Saud became chief spokesman for Kuwait and one of the pillars of the government under Premier and Crown Prince Shaikh Saad Al Abdullah Al Sabah. In the October 1996 cabinet reshuffle, Shaikh Saud was also made acting minister of health. That was briefly after he assumed the additional role as acting oil minister.

Outspoken on security matters, Shaikh Saud has defended Kuwait's military pacts with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the US, UK, France, Russia & China), saying on several occasions there was no longer sufficient trust among the Arabs for mutual defence. His brother Shaikh Sabah Al Nasser Al Sabah has been assistant undersecretary of defence for military installations and was one of the "insider" resistance figures during Iraq's occupation of Kuwait (see detailed profiles of the ruling family members in Gas Market Trends Vol. 36).

However, in November 1997 as information minister Shaikh Saud caused a big uproard by organising a book fair in Kuwait which displayed works considered un-Islamic. Islamists in parliament on March 15, 1998 forced Premier Shaikh Saad's 15-member cabinet to resign, as they insisted on removing Shaikh Saud from office. But a few days later Shaikh Saad made Shaikh Saud oil minister in a cabinet reshuffle.