KERRY HAS MOST TO GAIN IN DEBATES.

Byline: Ian C. Friedman

THE incumbent president, besieged by a lagging economy and a major Middle East crisis, holds on to a small but sustained lead in the latest presidential election polls. The challenger, portrayed by his opposition as potentially dangerous to American security, seeks to prove to the nation that he has the leadership and vision to serve as president. Finally, the candidates prepare for their first debate.

A description of the 2004 presidential campaign? Yes, but also a description of the 1980 presidential campaign. And that's good news for John Kerry as he and George W. Bush approach their first head-to-head debate.

Nothing is more important in close presidential campaigns than televised debates. For Kerry, they offer an invaluable opportunity to do what Ronald Reagan was able to do in his 1980 debate with Jimmy Carter: establish a presidential presence in a high-tension environment and reassure voters that he'll responsibly and effectively defend American security.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter debated Ronald Reagan only once, just a week before the election. Polls indicated that Carter's lead, which had steadily grown to eight points a few weeks before the debate, was eroding.

But Reagan's 1980 debate performance, highlighted by the now familiar ``Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'' left millions with the impression of Reagan as a reasonable man who could inspire confidence. This impression played a major role in propelling Reagan to a commanding 51-41 percent victory.

Other examples of how presidential debates have played an enormously influential role in American elections offer more hopeful evidence for Kerry that debate success could quickly boost his chances for victory. They also warn that weak debate performance would likely seal his defeat.

In 1976, polls found Jimmy Carter ahead by six points immediately before his first debate with Gerald Ford in late September, though that lead had dramatically dwindled from a 33-point margin in early July. Ford's momentum was then halted by his puzzling insistence that ``there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.'' Carter won the election and later recalled, ``If it hadn't been for the debates, I would have lost.''

If Bush pulls a Ford-like blunder, Kerry will need immediately to take advantage of the unequaled power presidential debates pack in determining the outcome of close elections. A clear and articulate rebuke to a glaring Bush gaffe would allow Kerry to craft an image as a poised and commanding leader while simultaneously strengthening doubts about Bush's competence and credibility.

Here's another example. In 1988, polls showed only a six-point lead for George H.W. Bush after his first debate with Michael Dukakis. Their second debate began with Dukakis fumbling a question about whether his opposition to the death penalty would change if his wife were raped and murdered. Post-debate opinion focused on how his response to that question reinforced his image as a passionless ``ice man.'' Within a week, Bush's lead was 15 points, and he soon cruised to an easy victory.

For Kerry to win the debates and this election, it's essential that he not repeat Dukakis' mistake of reinforcing negative feelings already associated with him by voters. That means avoiding equivocations and long- winded, incoherent responses.

Let's take another example. Immediately prior to their first debate in 2000, the polls showed Vice President Al Gore with a two-point advantage over George W. Bush. After the debate, many pundits and viewers noted Gore's audible sighs and eye-rolling expressions during some of Bush's responses. These reactions damaged Gore's already tenuous likability, and within a week, polls showed Bush with an eight-point lead.

Instead of the exasperated huffiness of Gore, Kerry had better emulate other successful debaters such as John F. Kennedy, Reagan and Bill Clinton, who conveyed a lively and genuine sense of enjoyment throughout the course of what are essentially 90-minute job interviews in front of 40 to 50 million bosses.

If Kerry learns these lessons and emerges from the debates as the perceived winner, he will be able to count himself among other presidents who owe much of the credit for their victory to the unrivaled impact of televised debates.

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For challenger Sen. John Kerry, the upcoming debates offer an invaluable opportunity to establish a presidential presence.

Elise Amendola/Associated Press