KENTUCKY DERBY UPDATE: DERBY RUN PUTS FOCUS ON TACTICS.

Byline: Kevin Modesti Staff Writer

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Now that he has won the 128th Kentucky Derby, all War Emblem has to prove is that he can win a real horse race. The clear early lead and comfortable pace that War Emblem enjoyed Saturday at Churchill Downs should be harder to establish in the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Baltimore's Pimlico Race Course.

``I have a feeling a lot of people won't let that happen again,'' said trainer John Ward, whose front-running Booklet will be one of the new shooters in the Preakness. ``If the winner tries to set that slow of a pace, we'll be right with him or just in front of him.''

That's as close as any challenger came Sunday to mimicking the late trainer Woody Stephens, who, on the morning after Winning Colors led the 1988 Derby gate to wire, vowed that his Forty Niner would deny the filly an easy lead in the Preakness, foreshadowing the speed duel that doomed both and set up winner Risen Star.

As it was with Winning Colors, the chance of Bob Baffert-trained War Emblem and jockey Victor Espinoza forging the first Triple Crown sweep in 24 years might depend on the tactics of the rival trainers and riders.

Can War Emblem do it?

``I don't think so. But that remains to be seen,'' said Ward, whose 2001 Derby winner Monarchos ran sixth in the Preakness. ``He'll have fresh horses coming at him at the Preakness and he'll have even more fresh horses coming at him in the Belmont (June 9).''

Let the handicapping begin again after a confounding Derby that saw 20-1 War Emblem, 23-1 runner-up Proud Citizen and 7-1 Perfect Drift run 1-2-3 almost all the way around the track.

``He could (win the Triple Crown),'' third-time Derby winner Baffert said of War Emblem, the colt he'd handled for the three weeks since Saudi Arabian Prince Ahmed Salman's $990,000 purchase took him from owner Russell Reineman and trainer Frank ``Bobby'' Springer. ``Anybody who says anything bad about him, they just didn't have any money on him.''

Other Derby trainers agreed with Baffert that War Emblem is capable of becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner, the first since Affirmed in 1978.

``The way he ran (Saturday), I'd have to give him a chance,'' said Shug McGaughey, whose Saarland finished 10th in the Derby, came out of the race with a bone chip in his left front ankle and faced surgery.

``His last three races were huge wins in extremely fast times. Superhorse in the making?'' said Steve Asmussen, whose Private Emblem - a son of Our Emblem, like the winner - finished 14th in the 18-horse Derby.

D. Wayne Lukas, whose Proud Citizen and jockey Mike Smith declined to press War Emblem's lead Saturday, said he'd call for the same strategy in Baltimore ``and if they beat us again, they beat us.''

``Had we got out of our game plan and gone after him, we might have lost second (by tiring in the stretch),'' Lukas said.

On the foggy morning after the race, as crews scooped up the trash of 145,033 fans, it appeared that only three horses from the 1 1/4-mile Derby would go on to the 1 3/16-mile Preakness: War Emblem, Proud Citizen and fourth-place Medaglia d'Oro. Also, Harlan's Holiday, seventh as a light 6-1 favorite, was described as ``possible.''

Medaglia d'Oro trainer Bobby Frankel told The Blood-Horse magazine online: ``I'm going to win the Preakness with him. My horse just had bad luck (at the start of the Derby).''

Ten non-Derby horses were being pointed toward the Preakness: Booklet, Lukas' Table Limit, Nick Zito's Crimson Hero and Straight Gin, Asmussen's Easyfromthegitgo, and Equality, Magic Weisner, Stephentown, Sunday Break and USS Tinosa.

Booklet led all the way when he defeated Harlan's Holiday in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth stakes in Florida this winter. Ward said he'll be ridden by five-time Preakness winner Pat Day. Sunday Break, USS Tinosa and Straight Gin were denied spots in the Derby by the 20-horse limit.

Heading back to Southern California were Santa Anita Derby winner Came Home (sixth in the Kentucky Derby), Easy Grades (13th), Lusty Latin (15th) and Ocean Sound (17th).

War Emblem led from start to finish in his past three victories, including the Illinois Derby win that earned the highest speed rating among the Kentucky Derby horses. Can a one-dimensional front-runner sweep the Triple Crown?

Two horses have gone wire to wire in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont: War Admiral (1937) and Count Fleet (1943).

Of course, the thought of War Emblem as Triple Crown timber sounds funny to those who watched him run fifth and sixth in the Lecomte and Risen Star stakes in New Orleans in the winter.

``The last two races, he just came to himself, and he's gotten good,'' Asmussen said. ``It's very surprising to me how good he's gotten.''

How good? We'll see. Ward said: ``That horse is going to have to come back and have a superior effort if he wants to win the Preakness.''