Jury still out on Tinseltown's big holiday winner; analysts split over Paramount and big-spending Sony.

Hollywood is still arguing over which film studio will emerge victorious from the holiday movie season.

One industry expert says Sony Pictures Entertainment, which, among other box office hits, released "Hook," will come away with the most laurels. Another says Paramount, maker of "Star Trek VI," will beam its way to the top.

Christmas is one of the biggest movie seasons of the year, second only to summer. Films released during the 1990 holiday season grossed $66.8 million.

Culver City-based Sony is the studio that stuck its arm out the farthest this season, releasing three major films that cost a total of about $150 million to make.

"Hook," directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Dustin Hoffman, Robin Williams and Julia Roberts, is the most expensive movie now on screen, costing an estimated $80 million. "Bugsy," starring Warren Beatty, was rumored to cost between $40 million and $45 million to produce, and "Prince of Tides," starring Barbra Streisand and Nick Nolte, was rumored to cost $35 million to $40 million to make.

"The studio that could have been hurt the most was Sony," said Marc Mancini, professor of film at Loyola Marymount University. "It looks like they're going to do just fine."

As of Dec. 30, "Hook" had snagged $58.1 million at the box office, coming in first place. Meanwhile, "Prince of Tides" and "Bugsy" rates No. 4 and No. 9 respectively at the box office during the weekend of Dec. 27-29. Another Sony film, "My Girl," showed up No. 10 at the box office that weekend.

Sony's promotions for these films, which include numerous advanced screenings, "was nothing short of brilliant," Mancini said. While some other studios took the attitude this year that they would be wasting tickets by offering promotional screenings of their films, Sony used advanced screenings to their advantage, Mancini said.

In addition, Sony "used every (other) means available to get the message to the public and it worked," he said.

In contrast, some of the other studios took the stance that revealing too much in advance to the public would be detrimental to their movies' success, Mancini said.

But another industry expert says Sony might prove to be the biggest loser of the season. Because of the expense of making and releasing "Hook" Sony needs to gross $200 million on the film just to break even, said Alan Gould, an analyst with Dean Witter Reynolds brokerage firm in New York.

"I don't think they'll do that," he said.

Even the industry trade paper Daily Variety noted that it seems unlikely "Hook" will match Sony's expectations of grossing $100 million by Jan. 5.

Gould looked at the flip side of Sony losing money on "Hook" though. "It would be absolutely fabulous for the industry," he said.

If Sony loses out on an expensive movie like "Hook," Hollywood studios might reverse their trend toward making high-cost flicks and bring down the cost of making films industry-wide, Gould explained.

While most of the other major studios, such as Burbank-based Walt Disney Co. and New York-based Paramount Communications Inc., are holding down costs, Sony has been pouring out the bucks.

In addition, another studio that until now had been driving up the cost of making films is out of the picture, at least temporarily. Los Angeles-based Carolco Pictures Inc. is an independent studio that has released pictures such as "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, that cost an estimated $70 million to $100 million to make.

But Carolco has suffered huge losses this year and is chopping its overhead.

"Carolco is not in a financial position to bid up costs," Gould said.

So if Sony changed its tune, "it would bring costs down for the whole industry," he said.

On the other hand, "Paramount is probably coming out on top," Gould said. Paramount released two major films this season, "The Addams Family," starring Anjelica Huston and Raul Julia, and "Star Trek VI," starring the television show's original cast. "The Addams Family" has grossed $88.8 million so far at the box office and "Star Trek VI" has grossed $50.4 million.

The difference between Sony's films and Paramount's films is that Paramounts two major releases were both produced on moderate budgets. The cost to make "The Addams Family" was about $30 million, and the Star Trek sequel just over $24 million.

Paramount will be successful this season because it has released films that didn't cost a lot to produce but are making it big at the box office, Gould summarized.

Turning the tables, 20th Century Fox will likely be another big loser this season, Gould noted. The studio's one major release, "For the Boys," has reaped $14.5 million at the box office so far. Fox must be pretty disappointed with the performance of that movie, Gould noted.

Meanwhile, another analyst says success at the box office has been rather evenly divided this season, with six films raking in more than $30 million so far.

At this time it's hard to tell winners from losers, said Christopher Dixon, an entertainment analyst with PaineWebber securities firm in New York.