July's lessons: elections in the State of Mexico herald changing fortunes for Mexico's main political parties.

Enrique Pena Nieto, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) gubernatorial candidate for the State of Mexico, achieved an easy victory in the July 3 elections.

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Considered the most important elections of 2005 since the State of Mexico is the nation's most populous state, the campaign allowed politicians and parties to measure the popularity of their respective messages on the public. The PRI victory in such an important race, with 47.55% of the vote, confirms the growing strength of the once all-powerful party vis-a-vis the ruling National Action Party (PAN) and the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

This is significant since the PAN gained control of the presidency for the first time ever in 2000, but President Fox's ongoing difficulties with implementing the changes he had promised during his campaign, have clearly hurt his party's credibility with Mexico's increasingly jaded electorate. Its candidate, former Tlanepantla municipal president Ruben Mendoza, received only 24.76% of the vote. The PRD, which hoped to capitalize on the popularity of its likely 2006 presidential candidate, Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, finished third, with 24.09% of the share.

Harbinger of 2006

The PRI's dominating performance (a triumph of 20 percentage points over the PAN and the PRD) shows that a tremendous challenge awaits the latter two parties. The PAN hopes to maintain its presence in Los Pinos, while the PRD aspires to ascend to this level for the first time.

According to some political analysts, the chances for the PRD seem particularly remote since much of its platform is based on a leftist discourse that some find belligerent or ill advised. On the other hand, the PAN and the PRD seem determined to remain loyal to the strategy of personal popularity. The party's governing strategy--the PAN at the federal level and the PRD in the Federal District government--seems to rely more on the popularity of Fox and Lopez Obrador, respectively, than tangible economic and political reforms.

The fact that the PRI also won the governorship of Nayarit on July 3 hints at the weakness of the PRD and the PAN. In Nayarit, the PAN finished an embarrassing third with only 6 percent of the vote after winning the governorship just six years ago, albeit in alliance with the PRD.

Squandering Opportunity

The PAN, in particular, appears to be stumbling. During Fox's term thus far, little headway has been made against unemployment, poverty and crime. According to numerous opinion polls and news reporting, the public and the media find change under Fox's presidency slow. To make matters worse, the shadow of corruption and media attention to verbal miscues and controversies related to racial sensitivities hurt Fox's image.

Momentum Lost

At the same time, the PRD had experienced a growing enthusiasm as the party and its supporters (about 20 percent of registered voters) sensed a genuine chance at an unprecedented victory in the upcoming presidential election. In Lopez Obrador, the PRD found a charismatic candidate who seemed to say all the right things (as far as the party was concerned).

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But impetus was frittered away as Lopez Obrador effectively took over the party, only to see its hopes dashed in the State of Mexico and Nayarit elections. The Mayor's imposition of candidates and advisers recruited from the old PRI elite also hurt his image with many people.

At the same time, it hasn't been all roses for the PRI. However, their impressive slate of electoral triumphs has produced a unity that nourishes the notion of returning to power. This has helped party leadership cobble together a common front, something neither the PAN nor the PRD has been able to do.

All three parties looked to the State of Mexico as an indicator for 2006, a chance to find out where they stood in the run-up to the presidential campaign.

Nevertheless, the game is far from over. All three parties still have to choose their presidential candidates during their respective primaries. Although the media has been quick to identify frontrunners, nothing has been decided.

A Plethora of Hopefuls

The political stage actually seems overrun with candidates of all stripes and colors.

The proliferation of presidential hopefuls is in stark contrast to previous elections under PRI administrations, in which the ruling party retained strict control over political processes. In the past, the "anointed one" would await the blessing of the president and his election was a foregone conclusion. That is no longer the case.

On the left, there are two powerful candidates--Lopez Obrador and Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, acclaimed as the "moral leader" of the left and a co-founder of the PRD, under whose banner he ran in the previous two presidential elections. Cardenas intends to make his fourth presidential bid (he also ran in 1988 with a broad leftist coalition) and hopes to imitate the success of Brazil's Lula, a long-time leftist activist who finally won the presidency after three previous failed campaigns.

Cardenas' recent decision to leave the PRD could cause a split vote among left-leaning voters, just when it appeared the left had a real chance to reach the presidential pinnacle. The split shouldn't have come as a complete surprise since Cardenas had flirted with the Green Party, the Labor Party and even Convergencia Democratica, knowing full well that Lopez Obrador positioned himself extremely well within the PRD.

The mayor is betting that his control over the PRD will limit the damage caused by Cardenas' departure. He also hopes his national popularity--he led most national polls for over a year--will help him reach beyond the PRD, a necessity if he expects to become the next president. It seems evident that even at this early stage, he is confident of victory. He has spoken about moving out of Los Pinos as president and residing in the National Palace in the Zocalo. He also has suggested he would lower the presidential salary.

Promise Unfulfilled

On the right side of the spectrum, the PAN has it no easier. The party's most renowned politicians are preparing for a skirmish that doesn't seem to be of great interest to the electorate in general. While the party faithful might take an active interest, the public seems jaded by the Fox administration's failure to affect significant change. Some critics argue that not only has genuine reform been blocked, but Mexico has slid backwards with regard to several key indicators, specifically employment, welfare and security.

Slowing Down Madrazo

The PRI also faces a treacherous path as party bigwigs sense they are approaching a return to power, based on the party's successes in the majority of state elections since 2001. The challenge will be to devise a primary system that appeases all contending factions. Specifically, a block of governors, former governors and federal legislators are fearful that party leader Roberto Madrazo (himself a former governor) will tilt the playing field to his favor.

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The potential for conflict is palpable. Although the "anti-Madrazo" faction calls itself Unidad Democratica, it is commonly known as "Everybody United Against Madrazo," frequently referred to in headlines as Tucom for the initials in Spanish. Madrazo has liberally taken credit for the party's strong electoral performances and has made no secret of his desire to become the next president.

In addition to the three major parties, there are even some well-known independent candidates, such as former foreign relations secretary Jorge Castafieda and drugstore chain owner Victor Gonzalez Torres, both of whom declared their candidacy without having the backing of any party.

Three-Year Campaign

The presidential campaign will have stretched on for three years by the time the public goes to the polls in July 2006, as a result of President Fox prematurely kicking off the campaign season nearly two years ago by actively and repeatedly discussing prospects of certain candidates within his Cabinet.

Since then, Mexico has been in virtual limbo since there are no laws regulating the pre-campaign season. What's more, there is no formal oversight over "campaign funds" spent during the past two years. Electoral law only calls for the regulation of funds during the formal campaign season, which doesn't begin until December.

This is particularly trouble-some because nearly all the potential candidates used--or continue to use--public resources at their disposal as government secretaries, elected officials or party leaders. This is true of three PAN candidates.--Santiago Creel (former Interior Secretary), Alberto Cardenas (former Environment Secretary) and Felipe Calderon (former Energy Secretary). Francisco Barrio was in Fox's Cabinet before winning an election as a federal congressman and serving as PAN legislative leader in the Chamber of Deputies.

Lopez Obrador continued to promote his candidacy from the mayor's office before he was expected to step down at the end of July. Several PRI hopefuls enjoyed this same "privilege" as state governors: Enrique Martinez (Coahuila); Tomas Yarrington (Nuevo Leon); Manuel Angel Nunez Soto (Hidalgo), Arturo Montiel (State of Mexico) and Miguel Aleman (Veracruz). Additionally, the PRI's Enrique Jackson continues to serve as president of the Senate, and Madrazo holds the party purse strings as PRI leader.

Meanwhile, little is known about proposals, party platforms and policy specifics. As never before in Mexico's political history, popularity and charisma are the dominant focus. Propaganda and the efficiency of party structures will also play a determining role. The election would seem to come down to a popularity contest, not a debate of ideas.

Gilberto Meza is a journalist with over 30 years experience in Mexico and Europe. He is currently a counselor with Cimac (Comunicacion e Informacion de la Mujer, A.C.).

State of Mexico

Elections

Enrique Pena (PRI/PVEM)           47.55%
Yeidckol Polevnsky (PRD-PT)       24.09%
Ruben Mendoza (PAN/Convergencia)  24.76%

Nayarit

Elections

Miguel Angel Navarro (PRD/PT)     43%
Ney Gonzalez (PRI)                46%
Manuel Perez Cardenaas (PAN)       5%

SOURCE: STATE OF MEXICO AND NAYARIT ELECTORAL INSTITUTES.

Note: Table made from bar graph.