Job feast or famine?

Unemployment rates are down, job creation is up. In the wake of an election year, job prospects always look good, but is this the calm before the storm? What career opportunities really lie ahead?

THE GOOD NEWS CAME AS NO SURPRISE. BY election day, the Dow Jones was hovering above 6,000 points and unemployment had dropped to 5.4%--its lowest point in seven years. President Bill Clinton rallied to raise the minimum wage to $5.15 per hour while heralding the 10.5 million jobs created under his administration. The year ended on a high note indeed, particularly after almost two decades of corporate downsizing and reengineering that left a handwringing nation of workers paranoid and shellshocked.

Is this a sign of good things to come or merely a fleeting correction in an otherwise uncertain job market? The jury is still out. But don't hang up your armor just yet career warriors. Continue to hone your skills for this ever-changing, competitive workplace. It's still business as usual.

Companies continued to wield the downsizing ax last year, slashing their workforce in order to maximize profits. In fact, for the first 10 months of 1996, more than 410,000 layoffs occurred, a 20% increase over the year before. But it could have been worse.

"Some companies might have, in fact, deferred the decision to lay off employees, " says John Challenger, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm that tracks corporate layoffs. "Bad publicity earlier last year [AT&T's layoff of 40,000 employees] may have prompted corporations to put off any job elimination in the heat of a campaign." But it didn't stop them afterwards. Just ask the 6,000 Sunbeam employees--50% of the staff--who received pink slips a week after election day.

THE REAL DEAL

While the short-term job outlook is mixed, the long-term prospects look good. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment is projected to increase by 17.7 million jobs or 14% from 1994-2005. In addition, the number of self-employed workers is expected to increase by 950,000 to 11.6 million in 2005. Of the new jobs created, the greatest gains were at the low and high end of the scale.

Politicians abated public fear by boasting of economic opportunity and prosperity for all, but where exactly are these new opportunities? Many of these new jobs were in low-wage industries, particularly sales and service occupations in retail and administrative support in the services industry.

Still, increases in employment did occur in high-paying occupations. While downsizing and restructuring led to the displacement of many managers and professionals, these groups accounted for 75% of the net job growth from 1989 through 1995, according to Randy Ilg, economist, Division of Labor Force Seatistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington. Total employment increased by 6.7 million to 124.9 million during that period.

If you break down the workforce into three relative earnings groups--high-earnings ($502-$1,083 a week), middle earnings ($342-$501) and low-earnings ($167-$341), there was a decline in the middle-earnings group, mainly in manufacturing occupations.

Things are looking up for low-wage earners now that President Clinton raised the minimum wage. But overall, salaries have remained relatively flat over the last four years. Despite average salary increases of just 3.9% in 1996, and projections for 4% in 1997, earnings look strong for employees due to the continued employer support of variable compensation programs. Of the more than 1,600 employers surveyed by Hewitt Associates, 61% say they are steadily increasing the budgets for these programs. Employers budgeted an average 7.5% of payroll for these programs that generally include performance awards, business incentives and profit sharing. Hewitt Associates is a suburban Chicago human resources consulting company.

THE FORK IN THE ROAD 

Surviving in this volatile job market requires far more than selling the employment experience and skills you already have. "Having one focus is not good enough anymore. Companies wane people who can do several jobs so they won't have to hire several people," says Armentha Cruise, president of the Black Human Resources Network in Silver Spring, Maryland.

As downsizing continues, employers will increasingly demand that employees provide validation of their presence at the company through unique skills they may have or special contacts. Knowledge in areas like computer technology is crucial. "We're finding that executives who lack technical skills or who are unable to adapt to changing workplace demands--no matter how many years of service--are losing their jobs," says Charles Albrecht, president of Drake Beam Morin, a New York-based outplacement firm. Those in high-level management usually lack these skills and need people who have a handle on emerging technologies. "The irony is that corporations are actively hiring people with these skills at the same time they are letting people go," adds Albrecht.

"People in jobs for 10 years should view themselves as being challenged to connect themselves to the mission of the organization," says economist Julianne Malveaux. "Everybody has to have a Plan B. People who survive are those who have a sense that aren't defined by their work but bring a variety of things of the job." She adds that African Americans, now more than ever, muse be creative when considering career paths,

For example, those who speak more than one language and are willing to travel, or are able to communicate beyond traditional grounds, like race and gender, will have many more doors open to them. Malveaux stressed the need for economic independence in the black community, because she feels that "We've been in the middle of an economic expansion, but it hasn't been an across-the-board expansion." Some of the other fields people previously shied away from, such as government, transportation and the delivery of educational services, currently present excellent opportunities for growth.

INDUSTRIES: FEELING HOT, HOT, HOT

Other fields currently experiencing a boom are business, health and education. which account for 9.2 million of the 13.6 million jobs in the service field. The personnel supply industry, which includes temporary agencies, will add 1.3 million jobs from 1994 to 2005. Last year alone, they had gross revenues totaling $10.9 billion.

Although temporary work tends to offer low job stability, low wages and poor benefits, it has become an option for people who need to supplement their incomes. Other reasons people choose to temp include the need for diversity and the challenge of varied assignments, exposure to various employment options before committing to full-time employment, and a desire to expand their skills, which is most important today.

A field like engineering is Flourishing precisely because it prepares people to do a variety of things. Computer engineering and systems analysis will be among the fastest-grow-ing occupations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"The need for technical professionals will grow clearly through the year 2010. This field prepares you for many fields," says Charles Walker, executive director of the National Society of Black Engineers. He added that all areas of engineering are overlapping into disciplines ranging from sales to lawn "People with this technical edge bring to a company that edge," says Walker. Currently, only 3.4% of the nation's engineers are African American.

While the technical fields presently provide unlimited opportunities, traditional occupations, like typists and administrative assistants, will change over the next few years due to more challenging job requirements. Also, people with lower than average educational attainment will continue to have difficulty finding higher-paying jobs. "Executive assistants will always be needed, but in a different way," says Cruise. These people will need to constantly expand their skills to include areas they never previously dealt with, like problem-solving and becoming multi-tasked.

AN ALARMING PROPOSITION

The long-standing attacks on affirmative action programs, as highlighted by California's Proposition 209, are adding fuel to the fire of an uncertain job market. "Many people believe affirmative action means hiring unqualified people over those who are qualified. Nothing could be further from the truth," says Dolores Cole of West Group Consulting and Training in Marino Valley, California. These programs essentially measure the effectiveness of equal opportunity laws that prohibit discrimination. "Most California private sector employers stayed out of the Prop. 209 fray, recognizing that the state is largely multicultural and that it behooves them to have a representative workforce," explains Cole.

CLASS OF '97

Despite some gloomy job market projections, many students still remain optimistic about their futures, according to a recent Graduate Management Admission Council Gallup poll. The poll shows that nearly two-thirds of college seniors expect they'll have a higher standard of living than their parents in 20 years. However, it also showed women to be a little less optimistic than men, often expecting the glass ceiling to limit their career opportunities.

For new graduates, "The heavy weight of the Baby Boomers is ahead of them, clogging the career pipelines," says Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, director of the Center for Leadership & Career Studies at Emory University in Atlanta. Since the population is living longer, it won't be as easy as it used to be for new graduates to find work right after school. Sonnenfeld suggests that grads look into the technology and service fields due to their low-entry barriers. He also offers the following tips for graduates entering the work world:

* Learn the difference between individual accountability and teamwork.

* Develop at least two areas of expertise.

* Market yourself. Don't assume people know what your talents are. "Good work only speaks for itself," says Sonnenfeld. "oYu need to communicate what your interests are beyond the job."

Sarah Stringer, director of career development and placement services at Alabama's Tuskegee University, strongly recommends preprofessional employment experience, such as internships or co-op programs. "They w ant people to hit the ground running. That's just cost-effective for employers, says Stringer.

GETTING PREPARED

For those fighting to hold their ground in the job market. the key words are diversity and creativity. Here are some tips to help you stay in the game:

* Whatever your field is, keep up with the state of the art. Take advantage of any new training opportunities your organization provides.

* If you've been considering returning to school for a post-graduate degree, wait no longer.

* Network whenever possible.

* Be involved in your field both in and outside of work.

* Develop good relationships with coworkers. "Interpersonal relations are very important now, with the extra anonymity created by the Internet and voice mail," says John Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

* Keep an eye on new technologies and how they're evolving.

* At the start of the new year, take time to assess where your career is and where you want it to go. Some cities are even actively recruiting to fill empty slots and attract new talent. Columbus, Ohio, is the first U.S. city to implement a national recruitment program for the thousands of hightech careers available.

* Try to be open to relocation if it can advance your career, says Robin Ryan, author of 60 Seconds & You're Hired! She says that employers today are looking for people who have a good balance of "hard" and "soft" skills: the former includes technical skills, like computer expertise, while the latter includes nontechnical abilities such as problem solving and a willingness to take personal initiative when necessary. Finally, Ryan advises that the best jobs are the ones you enjoy, excel at and which combine your interests and natural strengths

But before you become hopelessly pessimistic about holding your place in the job market, spend time improving your skills so your company will regard you as an asset, and continue tO make yourself more marketable overall. Being multitalented can only benefit you.

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