JORDAN - The Iraq Factor.

Having the unstable Israeli-Palestinian mix of violence and occasional talks on its western border, Jordan is very keen to avoid the possibility of war close to its eastern border - in the event of a US assault on Iraq. The implications for the kingdom can be disastrous. Apart from the refugee factor, there is the risk that it will get drawn into the conflict in various ways. Already the kingdom has been forced to deny rumours that US troops have taken up position on Jordanian territory to prepare for an assault on Iraq.

It is in fact virtually certain that the US will require the use of Jordanian territory or facilities for military purposes in the event of an attack on Iraq. Unlike in 1990-91, when King Hussein did not co-operate with the then Bush administration to the extent that the latter wanted, things are likely to be different this time. King Abdullah has been cautious not to suggest that his father's approach in 1990-91, which resulted in a straining of Jordan's relations with the West, was a mistaken one. But observers believe that it is highly unlikely that he would adopt a similar posture.

On the other hand, King Abdullah would continue to speak out against an attack on Iraq - partly because that would help calm public opinion in Jordan and partly because a war would have devastating consequences for the kingdom's economy, which was hit by the Gulf crisis and its aftermath through much of the 1990s. Speaking in mid-May 2002, at the end of a visit to the US, the King said: "With the Israeli-Palestinian crisis going on, with the anger and frustration throughout the Middle East is really at levels people cannot take any more, another armed conflict in the region would be too much for people to bear. And I think that let's give dialogue a chance".