JORDAN - The Arab-Israeli Context.

Jordan is placed in a very delicate position on the frontline of the Arab-Israeli conflict. With a population that contains a majority of people who are of Palestinian origin, including among them Queen Rania, each crisis that affects the Palestinian people is keenly felt in the kingdom.

From the Jordanian perspective, the developments on the Israeli-Palestinian front since Ariel Sharon controversially visited the Haram Al Sharif in September 2000 have been catastrophic. The geo-political environment had deteriorated significantly between that visit (which sparked what Palestinians called the "Al Aqsa Intifada") and the Sept. 11 attacks, by which time Sharon had become the prime minister of Israel - a worst case scenario from the viewpoint of the Arab World.

Sharon had taken a hard line towards the Arabs in general and the Palestinians in particular in the first half of 2001, virtually terminating the Middle East peace process. The Sept. 11 attacks provided the right global climate for him to launch a tough campaign aimed at delegitimising the Palestinian Authority (PA). The tactics he used had a direct impact on Jordan, where the traditional government position of support for the peace process was modified to fall closer in line with the sentiments of public opinion.

Moreover, criticism of the peace process had already been brewing in the kingdom. Having signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, Jordan has not been unable to benefit fully from the dividends of peace because of the remaining unresolved tracks in the peace process. And it looks certain that these tracks will not be pursued in the foreseeable future, as the focus from the Bush administration is on reform of the PA. It is in this context, with public opinion firmly against any action that appears to target the Palestinians, that the Jordanian leadership has to participate in the war against terror.

In practical terms, most observers say, public opinion can be satisfied with a higher level of pro-Palestinian rhetoric. They believe there is a great deal of resignation among the general population, i.e. a passive acceptance that the US and Israel are working in close co-ordination against the Palestinians and Arabs in general, and that there is nothing that Jordan can do about it.

A similar reality exists as far as the Islamists in Jordan are concerned. The Islamists active in the kingdom, both undercover and in loose association with recognised political parties, are in no position to take on the Jordanian military and intelligence establishment, widely regarded as one of the most effective and well-trained among the Muslim countries of the Middle East. Their activities will most likely be limited to political action, which the king can easily rein in through the security services as well as by tightening control over the media - i.e. through curbing of some of the existing democratic freedoms.

This has already been demonstrated in recent years, in the case of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas (which still has political activists in the kingdom) and some publications that took a pro-Islamist anti-peace line. More recently, in an attempt to curb the spread of Al Qaida splinter groups, a series of tough laws have been introduced, and books of militant literature have been confiscated from publishing houses in Amman. A number of arrests have also been made, reportedly including that of Abu Mohammed Al Makdisi, the spiritual mentor of Jordan's oldest militant group, the Islamic Liberation Party.

Nevertheless, if the violence does escalate further on the Israeli-Palestinian front, a credible challenge may come from the Islamists. If the Palestinian situation worsens to the extent where refugees flow on a large scale into Jordan, under the "expulsion option" that some Israeli hardliners are advocating for example, then things could go out of control.

Such a turn of events would eventually result in one of two outcomes: a major popular upheaval in Jordan against the peace treaty with Israel, and/or a serious reversal in the progress of Israeli-Jordanian relations in terms of economic and political and co-operation - at least in public. For the Islamists, that would amount to a victory against the US war on terror. Whether the US would let the geo-political environment in the region to deteriorate to such an extent remains to be seen.