JORDAN - Pax Americana Is Changing - Part 7.

Jordan has shown itself to be quick in adapting to the changes brought about by the events of Sept. 11, 2001. It has aligned itself closely to the US since then, and has benefited as a result in both economic and strategic terms. With Iraq now under occupation, Jordan is well placed to influence the course of events in that country, albeit in a way that blends with the objectives of the US. Regionally, the stature of Jordan has increased as it played a crucial role in the diplomacy that led to the acceptance by the Israelis and the Palestinians of the American road map for peace.

The kingdom's relationship with the US is of vital importance to its stability, and there is a deep understanding in both Washington and Amman about this fundamental factor. The way in which the Jordanian government relates to Israel is linked to this understanding. Jordan, unlike Egypt which has a "cold peace" with Israel, has managed to retain a degree of warmth in the relationship with the Jewish state; Israel recognises this as well, which is one of the reasons why it preferred to have the recent summit to sanctify the road map for peace at Aqaba rather than at Sharm Al Shaikh, on the Egyptian Red Sea coast.

However, Jordan's links with the US now extend beyond the Arab-Israeli conflict into American plans to re-order the Middle East. Observers believe that Jordan will be a lynchpin for the new order, serving both as an example of (1) a moderate Arab state willing to co-exist with Israel while at the same time having a robust but pragmatic Islamist opposition, and (2) an Arab monarchy that is prepared in a gradual and incremental way to democratise with the ultimate objective being to achieve a functional constitutional monarchy.

For its part, the US has been generous in response to Jordan's role since 9/11. Following a request by President Bush, the Congress this year allocated $700 million in emergency assistance to Jordan for the fiscal year 2003. This is in addition to the $250 million in bilateral economic aid already appropriated for 2003. On May 13, US Secretary of State Colin Powell and Jordanian Minister of Planning Bassam Awadallah signed documents that transferred the $700 million in additional funds. On the same day, Powell and Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher exchanged instruments of ratification for a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between their two countries.

In terms of domestic politics, King Abdullah has successfully consolidated his position as an absolute ruler, but one with democratic inclinations, following the death of his father in 1999. Under Abdullah's guidance, Jordan is now projecting itself as a forward-looking state that aims to integrate fully with the globalised economy and benefit from it. The momentum in this direction was set by his father before his demise, and the new king is carrying it forward both in the economic and political sphere.

The kingdom's first parliamentary elections since Abdullah assumed power were held on June 17, 2003. There was a high turnout of voters, despite dissatisfaction among opposition about electoral constituency manipulation in order to boost those supporting the king and his policies (see following pages).

The Regional Political Realities: The dynamism of the king and his policy prescriptions - both domestic and regional - will be the decisive factor in Jordan's future stability and economic prosperity. It is well understood in Amman that the two major factors of regional geo-politics that will impact upon Jordan are the Middle East peace process and developments in Iraq. The American war against terrorism will have an impact as well, although this will tend to be unobtrusive and behind the scenes - i.e. there will be the occasional media report about the arrest of an Al Qaida activist or facilitator.

The signs so far are that the king is well in tune with the ground realities of the post-9/11 era. Writing in the New York Times on June 23, after the World Economic Forum summit opened in Jordan, Alan Cowell says: "In less than 24 hours King Abdullah II of Jordan, the ruler of this land between Israel and Iraq, has opened a major international conference, held a banquet, presided over a moonlit concert with Palestinian and Israeli performers, watched fireworks on the shores of the Dead Sea, begun an educational initiative, laid out his thoughts on issues from Middle East peace to Arab democracy and made a Powerpoint pitch for investment. .If nothing else, Abdullah, 41, the descendant of the Hashemite dynasty that took over this land at its creation in 1921, has set out to prove that he is a king for his time".

All this is remarkable, in light of the fact that few countries in the Arab World have faced the challenges that Jordan has experienced in the past five decades. It has become embroiled in virtually every war that has hit the region, most of the time simply because of its geographical location. Guided by the late King Hussein, the small kingdom has survived every challenge and somehow managed to emerge unscathed. The new challenges being brought about by the changing face of Pax Americana are no different, and Jordan under King Abdullah has been facing it head on so that these challenges can be turned into opportunities.

Jordan has successfully repositioned itself as a regional player in the post-9/11 era. It strongly condemned those terrorist attacks and had expressed its support for the US military action that followed. The Jordanian army has deployed a field hospital in Kandahar in southern Afghanistan, and its doctors have treated thousands of civilians in the war-ravaged country. Some Jordanian medical personnel were also placed in Mazar-e-Sharif in the north.

Jordan's position on the peace process is very closely aligned to that of the US. On June 21, King Abdullah said: "The road map must be implemented, and this will require more than words". He added that most people in the region want only to do their jobs and send their children to school. "People are crying out for a normal life", he pointed out. Speaking after the recent acceptance of a ceasefire agreement by the Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Moasher said the agreement would "enhance the Palestinian's negotiating capability". He also said that the Israeli withdrawal from positions in the northern Gaza Strip was "an important step".

Apart from its critical role in the peace process, as a key force supporting the American-sponsored but UN-backed road map, the kingdom will play an important role in the future of Iraq. The king has been careful not to distance himself too far from Arab public opinion on the question of Iraq. Thus, he has stated: "We believe in democracy and the right of peoples to choose their leadership, we cannot imagine that people would accept the outside imposition of a leadership against their will". This statement suggests that Amman does not approve fully of the way the US is handling Iraq following the ouster of Saddam Hussein, but leaves enough room for maximum co-operation with the US.

Jordan Foreign Minister Moasher has stated the Jordanian position on Iraq's territorial integrity, i.e. that "Iraq should not be divided and we are against any intervention or its breakup into statelets". But the fact remains that, in the event of a worst-case scenario, Iraq may be split into northern, central and southern regions. As Baghdad was once ruled by a Hashemite family, related to the one in Jordan, it is not inconceivable that the kingdom may benefit territorially from such a development - especially in light of its current closeness to the US.

The government, however, officially "stresses the need to start a political process in Iraq that would lead to the formation of a credible and representative Iraqi government in order to get on with the process of rebuilding Iraq, and the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraq in the nearest future. Jordan underlines the need to guarantee the political and territorial integrity of Iraq in the reconstruction period" - according to its position outlined by the website of the Jordanian embassy in the US.

Reinforcing its role as a forward looking and globalising state, Jordan played host to the three-day World Economic Forum summit, which was held in late June at Shuneh, the lowest point on earth here by the waters of the Dead Sea. Among those who attended were US Secretary of State Colin Powell and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, as well an assembly of 1,200 executives, government ministers and others.

At the end of the summit Powell, speaking at a new conference flanked by Jordanian officials and by US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, told reporters. "We can't let a few individuals - and they really are a few individuals involved in these activities - prevent us from moving forward and making progress". At the summit, he had laid out Washington's proposals to expand a free trade area to several states in a Middle East free trade area linked to the US over the next 10 years. Washington already has free trade agreements with Israel and, since 2000, with Jordan.