JAVA HITS THE ROAD: IN-STAT/MDR SPILLS THE BEANS.

As the rapid development of palm-top computing and digital cellular telephony continues, and the resulting demand for lightweight information appliances increases, the Java VM (Virtual Machine) market will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 83.5 percent from 2000 to 2005, according to Cahners In-Stat/MDR.

Java is not directly supported by any microprocessor architecture that has succeeded in gaining significant volume shipments. Java VM, the solution that lets processors run Java code, is enabling the mobile communication and computing appliances that are becoming increasingly important.

As a result, the high-tech market research firm projects that worldwide Java VM extensions, software interpreters, and accelerator units will collectively reach 721 million units by 2005, with Java accelerators experiencing the highest rate of growth.

"Mobile computing appliances are becoming indispensable through their ability to access the Internet from any place via telephone, modem or wireless connection," said Max Baron, principal analyst for In-Stat/MDR's Digital Engines Service.

"A significant rise in worldwide-shipped Java-enabled units will start in 2002 as 3G-technology is deployed at rates that justify subscriber interest in Internet-ready wireless devices. As a result the demand for Java accelerators will increase." Over the next five years, Java VM intellectual property (IP) revenues are not expected to support more than a few providers.

"Providers will need to apply the principles of accelerators to other key functions required by the Internet, such as imaging, video, and audio," said Baron.

With time, the combined unit gains of software VM interpreters and Java VM extensions to ISAs (Instruction Set Architectures) will reduce the value of VM accelerator cores and will motivate their providers to extend their usefulness beyond Java or even replace Java VM with other functions.

The report, "Java Hits the Road: Accelerators in Mobile Applications" (No. DE0102MF), covers calendar years 2000-2005 history and forecast of shipments of Java VM Intellectual Property via cores, software and combinations of the two. The report also covers battery-operated computing devices, browsers and Internet-enabled digital cellular telephones.

The report covers battery-operated devices because these will require minimal power consumption, lowest cost of bill-of-materials and minimal physical dimensions.

The report also provides worldwide unit shipments and revenue between the years 2000-2005and positions the business of Java acceleration within the context of microprocessor cores, their royalties and the creation of architecture extensions that support Java.

The companion report, "Spilling the Beans on Java Accelerators" (No. DE0103DE), provides the technical details, comparisons and relative advantages of the six leading hardware Java accelerators that target the embedded market, in particular, wireless and portable applications.

Specifically, the report includes details of Arm's Jazelle and Nazomi's JSTAR instruction-path coprocessors; inSilicon's JVXtreme memory-mapped coprocessor; and the Parthus MachStream engine and Java module. It also includes Aurora VLSI's DeCaf and Zucotto Wireless's Xpresso processor family.