It's the jobs, stupid.

Kei Matsuda, senior vice president and senior economist at Union Bank of California, has called the 2004 presidential election in favor of George W. Bush, based on changes in unemployment rates and their effect on the past six election elections.

In the presidential elections since 1980, the incumbent party has won every election--with the sole exception of the 2000 race--when payroll employment increased by more than 1 million nationwide during the 12-month period prior to the election. According to that formula, if the election were held today, Bush would win. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that 1.5 million jobs have been created since August 2003.

Like any good economist, Matsuda gives himself an out, noting that the pace of job growth seems to be slowing.

"It is unlikely that (President Bush) can score many points from the improvement in job numbers. The drop in joblessness is small, and the rate has been flat for the last several months."

--Kate Berry