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Israeli-Hezbollah conflict of 2006: EBA in joint OPs.

The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict received varied coverage from the American press. One headline read, "Hezbollah Didn't Win." Another proclaimed, "Israel At Odds With Itself." Which one was accurate?

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While the final outcome of the conflict is yet to be determined, lessons can still be learned. Foremost may be the potential holistic effectiveness of the effects-based approach (EBA) to joint operations as a modern example of fourth generation warfare.

As the ground war began, Israel planned to use quick ground maneuvers to cut Hezbollah's lines of supply and air power to shatter centralized command and control, leaving Hezbollah disorganized, unbalanced and insufficiently supplied. However, Hezbollah, operating from sophisticated fortifications and underground bunker networks, avoided the devastating Israeli air power. (1) The Hezbollah bunkers were stocked with high-tech weapons and enough supplies to facilitate operations for weeks, even months.

How, then, does Israel decapitate and demoralize this enemy?

To answer that question, the Israelis adopted an EBA to joint operations during the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict of 2006. Although employing this concept did not allow them to achieve all of their objectives, it did enable them largely to synchronize the elements of national power to realize their desired end state.

The evidence suggests the Israelis' EBA followed four lines of operations (LOOs)--combat operations, air and sea blockades, strategic communications and diplomacy--to coordinate the elements of national power (diplomatic, information, military and economic or DIME) to defeat the Hezbollah. The synchronized DIME elements worked across the Hezbollah adversary systems within the political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure (PMESII) construct to create effects that achieve objectives to reach the desired end state. The end state: Compel the Lebanese people and government to rise up against a weakened Hezbollah, disarm them, accept a robust UN force and return Israeli Defense Force (IDF) Soldiers. (2) The results currently are ambiguous.

This article recognizes that the EBA adds value as a complementary component of the joint planning process derived from operational design at the theater-strategic and operational levels in fourth generation warfare. It defines EBA and fourth generation warfare with the concept of the strategic nature of the Arab-Israeli conflict. It examines the conflict to assess the Israeli's application of EBA along four LOOs to capture lessons learned and recommend a way ahead to the joint force commander.

What is EBA? There is a heated debate raging within the joint community as to the validity of the EBA to operations. The Joint Forces Command's (JFCOM's) Warfighting Center's Commander's Handbook for an Effects-Based Approach to Joint Operations states: "EBA focuses on improving our ability to affect an adversary's behavior and/or capabilities through the integrated application of select instruments of national power. The approach connects strategic and operational objectives with operational and tactical tasks by influencing desired and undesired effects within the operational environment." (3)

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JFCOM's EBA is more art than science, is flexible and fully integrates all the elements of national power--DIME--to achieve desired outcomes across the full spectrum of operations typical in 21st century fourth generation warfare. Scholarly opponents--to include Dr. Milan Vego, professor at the US Navy War College and Lieutenant General (Retired) Paul Van Riper, noted military theorist--argue that the EBA is more pseudo-science than art. Critics argue that EBA circumvents the operational-design process and is overly enamored with the science of accessing databases to determine links and nodes, thus confusing the detailed analysis of the PMESII and yielding multiple operational-level centers of gravity that obscure the true objective and complicate actions required to achieve the desired end state. (4) The PMESII construct is just one way to subdivide the adversary systems and is not intended to be the only viable model. (5)

In a recent joint doctrine note, the United Kingdom Chiefs of Staff state that the EBA neither replaces proven operational art nor is prescriptive. Furthermore, because the military is but one part of a nation's elements of power, a multidisciplinary and multi-agency approach must be synchronized under a holistic comprehensive concept. The note goes on to state that inherent to this approach is establishing a "common way of thinking" across all the elements of national power to include international organizations and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to coordinate a comprehensive and synchronized effort to achieve a strategic objective and desired end state. (6)

EBA is actions (tasks) directed at nodes (decisive points) conducted by component agencies (resources) that are coordinated across time and space within the relevant operating environment to create effects that achieve objectives to reach the desired end state. This can be done during planning using a construct that synchronizes LOOs (across a system consisting of PMESII) framed by centers of gravity that are aimed toward achieving objectives. It is important to note that tasks can be performed by more than just the military to create effects.

Measures of performance (MOPs) measure tasks, while measures of effectiveness (MOEs) measure effects. (7) MOPs and MOEs answer two questions respectively: Were things done right? and Are we doing the right things? (8)

Joint Publication 5-0 Joint Operations Planning defines effects as embedded in the joint operations planning process to help commanders and their staffs understand and measure conditions for achieving objectives. (9) EBA complements joint operations and allows the joint force commander to synchronize all elements of national power across complex adversary systems to achieve his aims.

Finally, EBA systems enhance planning and execution, to include measuring success in the ambiguous fourth generation warfare.

What is Fourth Generation Warfare? In Marine Corps Colonel Thomas X. Hammes' article in the Armed Forces Journal, he argues that the days of large conventional armies conducting decisive maneuvers against another large conventional army to achieve a quick, decisive victory are most likely in the past. Instead, fourth generation warfare exists in the challenging new global security environment shaped by the end of the Cold War and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on our homeland. The world went from a "status quo environment" to a new and uncharted world with non-state actors attacking states with extraordinarily deadly force that spreads terror and uncertainty around the globe. (10) President George W. Bush captures the essence of fourth generation warfare in our National Security Strategy when he states, "America is threatened now less by conquering states than we are by failing ones. We are menaced less by fleets and armies than by catastrophic technologies in the hands of the embittered few." (11) The inability to narrow the enemy to an army or state and then defeat them creates the uncertainty and ambiguity that now defines our environment.

These new concepts (fourth generation warfare and EBA) run contrary to the Clausewitzian way of war. Clausewitz likely is "rolling over in his grave" at the idea that in fourth generation warfare the EBA focuses on using precision-guided munitions (PGMs) aimed at pinpoint targets causing minimal collateral damage to modify the behavior of entrenched transnational terrorists and the host nation's government. Yet, the nature of war, itself, has changed. It now resides in the political, social, economic, information and technical realms of nation states and non-state actors.

For this article, fourth generation warfare is defined as asymmetric warfare in which one opponent is a failed or failing state or non-state actor with a powerful networked ideology. The greatest threat is from the non-state actor. This failing state or non-state actor attacks the weaknesses of the stronger opponent by developing innovative strategies, custom-tailored tactics and primitive, yet advanced technologies. The state or actor consciously diverts its power outside the traditional military paradigm and emphasizes PMESII dimensions of warfare to achieve its aims. This is the reality of 21st century fourth generation warfare.

The Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict in Strategic Context. For more than 50 years, the US and the rest of the world nervously have monitored the Arab-Israeli conflict, fearing it might plunge the region and, eventually, the entire world into widespread war. The conflict has erupted into declared war between Israel and its Arab neighbors on five occasions and internally in two intifadas.

The US has supported Israel in all these wars and remains a staunch ally, often at the expense of improved relations with other Arab nations.

The ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon is the current focus of the US' and the world's military experts and governments who are anxiously waiting on the sidelines. Most regional experts are surprised that the IDF did not achieve another decisive victory quickly through operational maneuver against an opponent that, by all measurable war-fighting criteria, is vastly inferior.

Israel is in a constant struggle for survival surrounded by hostile nations whose stated aims are to end its existence. Therefore, Israel's logical National Security Strategy is one of "pre-emptive self defense." (12) The state of Israel has been fighting in a fourth generation warfare context since it was established. Nonstate actors, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinians, clearly do not see themselves as military organizations. Rather, they view themselves as webs that generate the political power central to fourth generation warfare. The ongoing conflict against a well trained, extremely effective Hezbollah guerilla force in Lebanon is yet another example of fourth generation warfare. (13) The Israelis clearly understand the concept of using DIME to deter or compel an adversary to achieve a favorable political outcome.

EBA and fourth generation warfare are not new constructs. Evidence suggests that Israel adopted this EBA to warfare in the Hezbollah conflict of 2006.

Israel and EBA. As illustrated in the figure, EBA simplifies complex situations (such as the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict) to enable the joint force commander to integrate and synchronize DIME across the adversary systems within the PMESII construct to create effects that achieve objectives to reach the desired end state.

The literature clearly identifies the objectives and desired end state for both Israel and Hezbollah. The EBA construct used here and throughout the remainder of the paper is based upon my deduction through a systems perspective to derive the center of gravity, critical vulnerabilities and decisive points. Additionally, the effects, task or action taken, resource/component, MOPs and MOEs are deduced based upon the preponderance of the available evidence noted below.

The JFCOM's Supplement One to Commander's Handbook for an EBA to Joint Operations identifies governments, populations, economics and cities as "systems." EBA's ultimate aim is to alter or influence the target systems' behaviors or capabilities to render them more amenable to strategic and operational objectives through the multiple, integrated and simultaneous actions directed at key nodes and links. (14)

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The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has many examples of an EBA in joint operations in fourth generation warfare. Yet, the results are ambiguous at this time. The IDF's strategic bombing campaign combined with precision warfare weakened Hezbollah's armed forces while, simultaneously, the IDF applied non-kinetic information operations (IO) to incite the Lebanese people and government to rise up against the Hezbollah--the Israeli government's strategic aim. The IDF's bombings were not massive, imprecise area bombing but rather limited precision bombing targeting Hezbollah infrastructure.

To understand Israel's application of EBA, one first must understand Israel's and the Hezbollah's aims and objectives. At the national-strategic level, the Israeli perspective is that the Arab world finally must recognize the Jews' inherent right to have a Jewish state. Ariel Sharon best stated the Israeli aims in a 2006 New Yorker interview. Sharon truly wanted to bring security and peace by establishing a security wall to facilitate the withdrawal from the West bank, recognize a Palestinian state and, at the same time, maintain a democratic Jewish state by not allowing the Palestinian right of return. (15) Additionally, Ehud Olmert sought international assistance to disarm Hezbollah and deter the advance of Iranian and Syrian influence in the region. (16)

Hezbollah's aims and objectives should not be confused with those of the Arab states. The Arab world does not recognize the inherent rights of an established Jewish state. The Hezbollah aims are essentially twofold: gain political power in Lebanon and among the Palestinians and freedom of action within the context of Syrian-Iranian relations. (17)

The Israeli theater-strategic objectives in this conflict are threefold: end the threat to Israeli cities by destroying Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River, destroy Hezbollah infrastructure and avoid occupation of Lebanon. The Israelis' true desires are for the international community to legitimize the current status quo, which, many believe, favors them. Hezbollah, on the other hand, seeks to reduce Israel to its 1967 borders, which could facilitate the destruction of the Jewish state.

In short, the cease-fire is tenuous. The chance for a final peace will be long and arduous.

Assess the Four LOOs. One must examine the LOOs (combat operations, air and sea blockade, strategic communications and diplomacy) to assess their success, including the MOPs and MOEs within each LOO.

1. Combat Operations. Ehud Olmert responded to the kidnapping of two IDF soldiers with devastating air attacks and limited ground attacks south of the Litani River to punish the Hezbollah. The Israeli ground forces were held at bay while thousands of precision air strikes were sustained for more than 30 days, yielding ambiguous results. These operations were aimed at strategic target sets, such as bridges and roads, to cut-off Syrian resupply routes, command and control sites, strongholds and rocket launch sites.

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This precision air campaign historically has not been the Israeli way of war. The Israelis traditionally have committed overwhelming simultaneous air and land combat power to bypass fortified areas, disrupt lines of communications (LOCs), isolate fortifications and wait for capitulation. If Olmert is successful in achieving his end state, then it also will send a clear message to the Arab world that standing up to Islamic extremism pays off. (18)

Olmert may envision Lebanon as the theater of operations and Hezbollah as his objective within the joint operations area. EBA may be the most effective means to achieve the strategic objectives and desired end state.

Israel's objective is to weaken Hezbollah's military apparatus within Lebanon south of the Litani River and contain the threat to the borders of neutral Lebanon. Thus, it is logical to consider Lebanon as the enemy's fortification that must be contained and cut-off. If this is the case, then Olmert is not sitting idly by waiting for capitulation. He simultaneously is applying DIME warfare aimed at achieving his end state.

At the time this article was written, there is little evidence or tangible battlefield damage assessment (BDA) to determine if the Israeli Air Force (IAF) or the IDF achieved critical damage to Hezbollah's indirect weapons launch capabilities. Israel has flown more than 15,000 fighter sorties and attacked more than 7,000 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon with minimal loss of life and equipment. The IAF was reported to have destroyed more than 70 percent of Hezbollah's arsenal of long-range rockets in the first hour of the campaign. (19) Yet, the fact that Israel's airpower could not stop the Hezbollah from firing hundreds of smaller Katyusha rockets into northern Israel, even on the last day of fighting, indicates the Israelis failed to achieve their desired effect.

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Also, Israel anecdotally has claimed to have killed between 100 and 600 Hezbollah fighters to date, an estimated 15 to 25 percent of Hezbollah's initial force of approximately 3,000 fighters. This is difficult to measure as Hezbollah's tentacles reach a reserve depth of an estimated 10,000 fighters; this compares to 118 IDF losses out of an approximate 15,000 soldiers decisively committed at any one time during the conflict. (20)

The true MOE assessment is Hezbollah still is capable of launching rockets into Israel. Moreover, the second and third order effects of the destruction of Hezbollah buildings and crowded bridges with little military value feeds Hezbollah's propaganda efforts and enhances negative perceptions of Israel among the Lebanese people. (21)

The IAF attacks also have created second and third order effects by displacing more than 600,000 Lebanese citizens as refugees, creating a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. The Lebanese people blame both Israel and Hezbollah for this plight. However, the majority of the Lebanese people regard Hezbollah as citizens and accept them in their borders. (22)

Finally, the IAF and IDF attacks do not seem to be synchronized. During the 48 hours before the ceasefire went into effect, Israel sent ground troops into southern Lebanon to seize territory to create the perception of military victory. This unsynchronized IDF "land grab" did little to convince the Lebanese and Hezbollah that the IAF air strikes were successful. Finally, the Israeli army's unclear results may have served to embolden Hezbollah and its supporters in Lebanon.

2. Air and Sea Blockade. Israel simultaneously imposed an air and sea blockade as part of major combat operations on 13 July 2006. The purpose of the dual-pronged blockade was to extend major combat operations from not only targeting bridges and limited road networks between Lebanon and Syria, but also to interdict the Hezbollah LOCs, including sea and air resupply from Syria and Iran.

The air and sea blockades were imposed in a timely manner, but the Hezbollah's stockpiles of weapons, ammunition and supplies were already in Lebanon. Israeli intelligence sources did not claim to have an accurate inventory of the prewar and postwar Hezbollah weapon caches but they estimated 30 Iranian transport aircraft loaded with ammunition and weapons landed at Damascus International Airport and two other military bases outside of the Syrian capital. The cargo included not only small arms but also sophisticated AT-3 anti-tank missiles, short-range surface-to-air missiles, long-range Katyusha rockets and high-explosive anti-tank mines. All these weapons subsequently were transferred to Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. (23)

The Israelis closed the ports and established a no-fly zone without major incident. The blockade should have been extended to include closing borders to interdict LOCs. The IDF's and southern Lebanese army's later attempts to secure the porous borders between Syria and Lebanon proved ineffective. It is estimated that as many as 60 crossing sites exist along the Syrian border, requiring tremendous resources to prevent the flow of supplies from Syria to Hezbollah. (24)

In the end, Hezbollah was able to stockpile enough weapons and ammunition to fight without being resupplied for months. This was evident as Hezbollah was able to fire short- and long-range Katyusha rockets through the final days of the conflict.

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A secondary effect of the air and sea blockade was to undermine the Lebanese economy with the Lebanese government feeling the weight of the blockade. Although this did not compel the Lebanese government to act to disarm Hezbollah, it did play a role in the Lebanese government's accepting a more robust UN force.

Yet, Hezbollah's will to fight appears undiminished.

3. Strategic Communications Campaign. The roots of the Arab world's anti-Israeli sentiments lie in several areas and were captured by Pulitzer Prize winning author Thomas L. Friedman during a CNN interview when he identified "three rivers of rage." The first of these rivers is tied to American support of Israel and American efforts to keep Arab dictators in power. The second is the poverty of dignity related to the decline of the Islamic empire. The third is the corrupt and repressive regimes currently in power in the Middle East. (25) Indeed, a large part of the international community views Israel as the aggressor in the ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict negatively impacts regional public opinion in the protracted Hamas-led Palestinian conflict against Israel and is viewed by most observers as a precursor to a potential strike led by the US on Iran. This is the uphill battle any Israeli strategic communications plan must address to achieve legitimacy in the international community. The near target in the 10 and psychological campaign is Lebanon, which is even more entrenched in the belief that Israel must be destroyed than most in the region--less the Palestinians, Syrians and Iranians.

At first glance, it appears that Israel has all the advantages to launch a comprehensive strategic communications plan to avoid the occupation of Lebanon. It is capable of harnessing its vast technological telecommunications infrastructure to synchronize its public affairs, media and 10 and psychological operations (PSYOPS) to reveal how a Lebanese uprising and the disarming of Hezbollah would be potentially advantageous to the Lebanese populace. But the fact is most Lebanese consider Hezbollah's members as citizens of Lebanon. In contrast, Israel has been successful in influencing and appealing to the international communities.

Israel targeted three audiences in the recent conflict: its own citizens, the enemy and anyone who may be neutral. The themes and messages are to portray Israel as the victim in the conflict and to win hearts and minds.

The Israeli air strikes were meant to sway neutral Lebanese citizens to recognize the inherent weakness of Hezbollah and how quickly it would crumble under devastating precision bombing. Yet, this strategy, to include bombing Hezbollah multi-media stations, was not effective because on the final day of the conflict Hezbollah was able to broadcast its message to the Lebanese people. Moreover, the Israeli government and people, along with the Lebanese people, favored an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. (26) This aggressive strategy did not match the theme of portraying Israel as the victim.

Hezbollah was working a two-pronged strategy of its own that included guerilla warfare and PSYOPS aimed at the same target audiences Israel was attempting to influence. Hezbollah, through guerilla tactics, powerful ideology and strategic communications, was able to unite Lebanese Christians, Sunnis and Druze populations against Israel and achieve their objectives.

4. Diplomacy. The key to a lasting cease-fire and diplomatic solution rests with the UN. The Israelis have the unwavering support of the US and majority of the western nations who view Hezbollah as the aggressor in the conflict.

Although Hezbollah is a non-state actor, it has several powerful allies in the region and international community. The Syrians and Iranians appear to be Hezbollah's most vocal and powerful allies. The French appear to be taking a questionable stance by condemning both Israel for responding disproportionately and Hezbollah for continuing to provoke Israel. However, like other countries, the French desire peace in the region to further stability.

It appears Hezbollah may have won the battle, but Israel won the war. The Israeli EBA campaign into Lebanon against Hezbollah may have been disjointed in synchronizing the four LOOs, but diplomacy largely seems to have yielded the end state the Israelis desired.

The Israeli air and sea blockade was lifted on 8 September 2006 in light of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's announcing the deployment of a UN naval task force to help the Lebanese navy secure their maritime borders. (27) Israel achieved its diplomatic objective to end the threat to Israeli cities and reached the major aspects of its desired end state. The recent UN Security Council Resolution 1701 required Lebanese troops and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon to facilitate an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

Lessons Learned for the Joint Force Commander. There are advantages and disadvantages to adhering to EBA in fourth generation warfare.

The advantages of adhering to EBA in warfare is in its inherent ability to synchronize all elements of national power across the adversary's PMESII systems using the full spectrum of operations to reach the desired end state. The Israelis were not able to synchronize the four LOOs and were hindered by a flawed and antiquated mental model of a dominant "Kosovo-esque" air campaign. But the Israeli's holistic adherence to the four LOOs, specifically the communication and diplomacy LOOs, yielded a favorable outcome.

The greatest advantage to EBA is that there is no single point of failure. Effects are designed as a wide-ranging approach that synchronizes complex and adaptive systems across flexible LOOs chosen by the commander to bring all the elements of national power to bear on a single operation or campaign to achieve a desired long-term end state.

The disadvantages to adhering to EBA are that there is a tendency to rely too heavily on the science of the process. The science merely links nodes together based on a system's perspective derived from regressive analysis of the operational design.

The joint force commander's artful application is the key to success. The commander constantly must assess the campaign execution using MOPs and MOEs and adjust it based on the effects he is achieving as they relate to the objective and desired end state. The joint force commander must not get lost in the "pseudo-science" of EBA and attempt to supplant art with science to link the complex interactive systems of the PMESII construct to focus his effects. The joint force commander must focus broadly toward achieving his end state.

The holistic application of EBA gives the joint force commander the ability to work sequentially along flexible LOOs or simultaneously, as required, to identify the centers of gravity, focus on the objectives and achieve the desired end state--as is apparent in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

The ambiguity of fourth generation warfare is the realm in which the EBA construct thrives; it is imperative that all elements of national power are brought to bear to realize the commanders' aims.

Colonel David J. McCauley, Field Artillery (FA), is the Commander of the 17th Fires Brigade, part of I Corps at Fort Lewis, Washington. He has served as the Chief of Staff and Deputy Commanding Officer for III Corps Artillery, at Fort Sill, Oklahoma; and Commander of 2nd Battalion, 18th Field Artillery (2-18 FA) in the 44th FA Brigade and during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) I and II while supporting V Corps and the Coalition Forces Land Component Commander (CFLCC). During the Kosovo Air Campaign, he served as the Chief of Plans at the Warrior Preparation Center, Einseidlerhof Air Base, Germany. He also has served as the Division Artillery S1 for the 1st Armored Division and Executive Officer for the 4-27 FA, 1st Armored Division in Baumholder, Germany, and deployed to Bosnia-Herzegovina as part of the Implementation Force (IFOR). He was the Battalion S1 of 6-27 FA, Fort Sill, and later commanded B Battery, 6-27 FA during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. He has three Master's degrees, including a MS in Information Management from Syracuse University in New York, and an MA in National Security and Strategic Studies from the Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island.

Endnotes:

1. Breaking Intelligence Ground War, "Red Alert: The Battle Joined," Retrieved August 30, 2006 from http://www.stralfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=270065.

2. "Israeli Offensive May Not Meet Long-Term Objectives." Jane's Intelligence Review, retrieved 8 September 2006 from http://jir.janes.com/public/jir/international.shtml, 1-2.

3. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) Warfighting Center. Commander's Handbook for Effects-Based Approach to Joint Operations, (Suffolk, VA: 24 February 2006), 1-1.

4. Milan N. Vego, "Effects-Based Operations: A Critique," (Joint Forces Quarterly, issue 41 2nd Quarter, 2006), 51-57. Lieutenant General (Retired) Paul Van Riper wrote an email dated 11 December 2005 to a myriad of general officers that later was disseminated widely within the joint community. The email expressed his concerns about emerging doctrinal concepts that are devoid of meaningful content, to include effects-based operations. He accepts EBA as a worthy targeting methodology developed during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, but says it should not be adopted as a new way to plan and conduct all military operations. General Van Riper further states it is critical to understand the differences between structurally complex systems, such as integrated air defense systems and power grids, and interactively complex systems, such as economic and leadership systems. Operational planners can understand the first type of system using the reductionism of systems analysis. They only can understand the second type of system holistically. That is, tools for one type of system are inappropriate for the other. For more details, the email is available at http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/4114.pdf.

5. JFCOM Warfighting Center, Draft Joint Publication 5-0 Joint Operation Planning. Joint Chiefs of Staff--Joint Working Group, Joint Military Publication, 21 July 2006, 111-12. JFCOM recognizes that political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure (PMESII), although becoming a commonly accepted acronym, will not be in joint doctrine. The reason is that there are many ways to subdivide a system into component parts.

6. Joint Chiefs of Staff, "Joint Doctrine Note 1/05, the UK Military Effects-Based Approach," Director General Joint Doctrine and Concepts, I-1-3.

7. JFCOM Warfighting Center, op. cit., I-1. Draft Joint Publication 5-0, op. cit., Ill-12.

8. JFCOM Warfighting Center, op. cit., Ill-9-10.

9. Draft Joint Publication 5-0, op. cit., Ill-12.

10. Colonel Thomas X Hammes, "Fourth-Generation Warfare: Our Enemies Play to Their Strengths," Armed Forces Journal, November 2004, 44.

11. George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, (Washington, DC: White House, September 2002), 1. This fourth generation warfare concept is defined in the 2006 National Security Strategy by stating that we are pursuing a future force that will provide tailored deterrence of both state and non-state threats (including employing weapons of mass destruction, terrorist attacks in the physical and information domains and opportunistic aggression) while assuring and dissuading potential competitors.

12. Dan Horowitz, "The Israeli Concept of National Security," National Security and Democracy in Israel, (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1993), 11-53.

13. Ibid., 14.

14. JFCOM, Supplement One to Commander's Handbook for an Effects-Based Approach to Joint Operations, (Suffolk, Virginia: February 24, 2006), 3.

15. Ari Shavit, "Profiles--The General," The New Yorker, 30 January 2006.

16. Jane's Intelligence Review, op. cit., 1-2.

17. Stratfor Special Report, "Why Hezbollah Fights?" Retrieved 1 September 2006 from http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=270174.

18. Lisa Beyer, "What Was He Thinking?" Time Magazine, July 31, 2006, 38-43. Available at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1218051,00.html. Stratfor Breaking Intelligence Ground War, "Red Alert: The Battle Joined," Retrieved August 30, 2006 from http://www.stratform.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=270065.

19. Joris Janssen Lok, "Targeting: In the Hands of Pods," Jane's International Defense Review, 31 October 2006, 7 September 2006, 1. Available at http://www.janes.com/defence/news/idr/idr060907_1_n.shtml Anthony H. Cordesman, "Preliminary Lessons of the Israeli-Hezbollah War," Center for Strategic and International Studies, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, 11 September 2006. Available at http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060911_ISP_hez_lessons.pdf

20. Anthony H. Cordesman, "Israel's Uncertain Military Performance and Strategic Goals in Lebanon," Center for Strategic and International Studies, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, 25 July 2006. Available at http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060911_isr_hez_lessons.pdf.

21. Ibid., 1-15.

22. Ibid., 2-5.

23. Andrew Brookes, "Air War Over Lebanon," The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 8 August 2006. Available at http://www.iiss.org/index.asp?pgid=14741.

24. Cordesman, op. cit., 11 September 2006.

25. CNN.com--Transcripts, "CNN American Morning with Paula Zahn," Aired 26 March 2003, 0854 Eastern time. Available at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0303/26/ltm.02.html. Thomas L Friedman identifies "three rivers of rage" that capture the essence of the Muslim world's strong anti-US and Israeli resentment.

26. UN Homepage, "Lebanon: Annan Hails 'Immiment' Deployment of Naval Force as Interim Patrols Begin," Retrieved 9 September 2006. Available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2006/09/mil-060908-unnews01.htm.

By Colonel David J. McCauley, FA
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