Israel Faces Major Changes, But Not In The Near Future; The Syrian Front May Heat Up.

*** PM Siniora Says Lebanon Can Control Its Border With Syria & Prevent Iranian Arms From Reaching Hizbullah; Speaker Berri Urged Lebanon's 128 MPs To Hold A Parliament Sit-in From Sept. 2 Till Israel Lifts Its Air & Sea Blockade Of The Country

*** Bush Swiftly Rejected A TV Dialogue Offer Made Aug. 29 By Ahmadi-Nejad, Who Wanted A Deeper UN Split; Rumsfeld Hints Of Possible US Attack On Iran's Nuke Facilities

*** Kazakhstan Aims To Become The World's First Uranium Exporter Ahead Of Canada And Australia By 2010; It Signed Nuke Deal With Visiting Japanese PM Koizumi Aug. 28

NICOSIA - There is deepening malaise in Israel over the outcome of war with Hizbullah in Lebanon. Opinion polls indicate a majority of voters want to change both the political and military leaderships. But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is riding out the post-battle storm and gaining time from events yet to occur in the region.

One of the developments Olmert is said to await is a heating up on the Golan Heights, an Israeli-occupied Syrian front kept calm since 1974 when the Ba'thist regime of Gen. Hafez al-Assad  had a military disengagement deal with Israel brokered by then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Assad died in June 2000 and his son Bashar, who took over the presidency, has been leaping from one blunder to another. Since Aug. 15, when Bashar said he might open the Golan front in a war of attrition, gaining from Hizbullah's "victory" in Lebanon (see news9-LebHizb-IranUS-Aug28-06), Israeli forces have quietly been on alert for instant response to any provocation.

On Aug. 30 a previously-unknown Syrian militant group issued to the media a statement implicitly threatening it would kidnap Israeli soldiers on the heights. No response to this came from Damascus or from the Israeli side.

Olmert's position was strengthened by remarks on Aug. 27 from Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that he would not have sanctioned the capture of Israeli soldiers on July 12 if he had foreseen the Israeli response. Referring to Nasrallah's statement, Olmert on Aug. 28 told mayors of northern Israeli municipalities: "In Beirut and other capitals in the Middle East, they understood that we are not going to tolerate attacks on our sovereignty, our citizens and our soldiers".

Olmert got mixed reception for his Aug. 28 decision to limit the scope of an inquiry into the conduct of the Lebanon conflict, with some political opponents labelling it a "whitewash". Olmert said he had rejected the option of a full judicial investigation and chose instead to ask separate panels to look into the political, military and civil defence aspects of the 34-day fighting.

The decision was hit from both the left and right of the political spectrum, where criticisms ranged from attacking the government for over-reacting to Hizbullah provocation to questioning its failure to use more military force. Members of his own centrist Kadima party, however, endorsed Olmert's view that a high-profile legal investigation would have paralysed the political and military leaderships for a prolonged period. "This is a courageous and correct decision", said Yoel Hasson, a Kadima MP.

Olmert's decision nevertheless carried the risk that it could be opposed in the Knesset (parliament) or within the coalition cabinet, forcing him to back down and agree to the kind of probe which sanctioned Ariel Sharon, his predecessor, after the 1982 Lebanon war. But Olmert will not be pressed on this in the near future, having time to improve his position further.

Eliad Shraga, head of the non-partisan Movement for Quality Government, on Aug. 29 wrote: "The public is not stupid and it will totally reject this conspiratorial attempt to create a smokescreen and not investigate the truth. This committee is only a fig leaf, and we will continue until the end with our battle to set up a state commission of inquiry". The outcome of the Hizbullah-Israel battle, coupled with reservists' charges that they were sent to war unprepared, led to protests against the government, backed by Shraga's and other groups, and demands that the PM and key ministers resign.

Olmert's position has been enhanced by splits on the left. The power-sharing Labour party is deeply divided amid intense public criticism of the wartime conduct of Amir Peretz, its leader and defence minister. But Peretz on Sept. 1 reversed course and called for a full probe into Israel's military conduct in the fighting with Hizbullah.

Olmert's Aug. 28 choice, stopping short of ordering an independent probe, was to avoid the prospect of high-level resignations which an independent panel could bring. In a speech in the northern city of Haifa, he said the Israeli government did not have the "luxury" to spend long periods of time investigating the past. The decision could still generate heavy criticism as the public has been calling for a serious investigation.

The domestic turmoil on Aug. 29 overshadowed the arrival in Israel from Beirut of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who urged a lifting of the blockade of Lebanon which he called humiliating for the Lebanese. Earlier on Aug. 29 Annan visited the base of the 2,000-strong UN force in Naqoura, southern Lebanon, after extensive talks in Beirut.

Olmert on Aug. 30 rejected Annan's call, saying Israel would only raise the siege once all elements of the Aug. 14 truce were in place. During an hour of talks, Annan pressed for a lifting of the blockade, imposed on July 12. At a news conference after their talks, Olmert said any relaxation of pressure on Lebanon's ports and airspace depended on full implementation of UN Resolution 1701, adding: "The [resolution] is a fixed buffet and everything will be implemented, including the lifting of the blockade, as part of the entire implementation of the different articles".

Olmert was equally firm when it came to Annan suggestions that Israel withdraw its troops from south Lebanon within "days or weeks", once up to 5,000 UN-backed peacekeepers were on the ground. Olmert said: "Israel will pull out of Lebanon once the resolution is implemented". Annan's top priority had been the lifting of the blockade, saying: "It is important not only because of the economic effect it is having on the country but it is also important to strengthen the democratic government of Lebanon with which Israel has repeatedly said it had no problems". Annan said he hoped soon to raise to 5,000 the number of UN troops in Lebanon and urged Israel and Hizbullah to end swiftly all disputes.

On Aug. 29, Peretz said Israel would pull out from south Lebanon once a "reasonable" number of UN soldiers had deployed. Resolution 1701 calls for a deployment of 15,000 UN peacekeepers by Nov. 4, alongside Lebanese army troops. Annan held talks with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who stressed the disarmament of Hizbullah as a condition.

Then Annan went to the West Bank and met Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas. Annan did not meet PA's Hamas PM Isma'il Haniya - just as he did not meet President Emile Lahoud during his visit to Lebanon - Lahoud being a puppet of the Syrian regime and Hamas being boycotted internationally. Annan went to Amman for talks on Aug. 30. Later he went to Damascus and was to be in Tehran on Sept. 2.

US civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, on a visit to the region to try to mediate a prisoner exchange, told Israeli Army Radio he had been informed by Hizbullah that the two soldiers seized by the group on July 12 were alive. He said during a visit to Damascus on Aug. 28: "a Hamas leader told me...that the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas is alive". Palestinian militants abducted Corporal Gilad Shalit in a cross-border raid from Gaza on June 25.

Italy's first contingent of 800 troops, out of an eventual 3,000 pledged, on Aug. 29 set sail on what Rome said would be a "long and risky" mission. The aircraft carrier Garibaldi and four other ships were due to reach Lebanon by Sept. 1. France promised to send a 900-strong battalion before mid-September, with a second battalion to follow.

The UN hopes to create a buffer zone in south Lebanon free of Israeli or Hizbullah forces and policed by the expanded UN force alongside some 15,000 Lebanese troops. It is hoping Muslim states will send troops to balance the 7,000 or so pledged by EU governments. The Turkish government said it wanted parliament to meet on Sept. 5 to approve a troop contribution, after agreeing in principle to send soldiers. Other potential Muslim contributors include Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh, although Israel has objected to their taking part because they have no diplomatic ties with the Jewish state.

The fighting with Hizbullah cost the lives of nearly 1,300 people in Lebanon, mainly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers. The truce on Israel's northern border is holding. But the violence in the Palestinian territories continues with Gaza under a tight Israeli blockade.

With Israeli warships and planes patrolling its coastline, the blockade is crippling Lebanon's economy. Israel insists UNIFIL must monitor Lebanon's border with Syria; but President Assad says his government would consider any such move "a hostile act". Assad says unless Beirut refuses this, Syria will be forced to seal its border crossings, leaving its Arab neighbour completely cut off by land and sea. But on Sept. 1, Annan told a Damascus news conference Assad had promised him he will take measures for the Lebanese-Syrian border to be patrolled jointly by the forces of the two states and that Damascus would negotiate diplomatic relations with Beirut.

Condemned by the Israeli public for not dealing Hizbullah a "knock-out blow", Olmert and Peretz are fighting for political survival. With its own credibility uppermost, their government may be looking for an excuse to go another round. But a fall of Olmert's government and early elections remain a strong possibility, in which case Likud leader and former PM Benjamin Netanyahu may win.

Erosion of Israel's regional hegemony and deterrence worth has resulted in the emboldening of its enemies. The myth of Israel's invincibility has been shattered. Some Israelis see this as an intolerable existential threat. Doubt has also been cast on Israel's strategic importance to USA.

A headline in the Jerusalem Post reads: "View from America: The United States Prefers a Winner". Messages coming out of Tel Aviv are more warlike than peaceful. Olmert has warned Israel "must be prepared for all scenarios". Peretz has expressed his commitment to investigating mistakes made during the conflict "in preparation for the next round".

There is also talk of Israel and USA widening the conflict to include Iran and Syria.

An ad hoc forum of Israeli reserve officers and commanders was formed recently to call for an inquiry and resignation of Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Dan Halutz. In a poll in Aug. 25's mass-circulation Yedioth Aharonoth, 54% of respondents said Halutz should quit. Olmert fared even worse, with 63% calling on the PM, a figure which rose to 74% in the event that a suitable candidate were found to replace him. The findings reflected the perception that there was no obvious candidate to fill his post, at least not from his Kadima party.

The Yedioth poll and a separate survey in the daily Ma'ariv showed Kadima losing support to the rightwing Likud party of Netanyahu and to the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu led by Avigdor Lieberman, the leading politician of the Russian immigrant community. Lieberman has stoked fears among Israel's 1m Arab minority by proposing that Arab MPs who allegedly backed Hizbullah should be put on trial.

Ma'ariv on Aug. 25 said the Lebanon war had worsened already problematic relations between Israel's Jews and Arabs. It published a poll indicating that, while only 18% of Israeli Arabs supported Nasrallah, a majority of Jews believed all or most of their Arab fellow citizens backed the Hizbullah leader.