Is your magazine fiber or cyber?

The "fiber or cyber" question has been asked many times over the past 15 years. As Internet companies picked up steam in the late 1990s, breathless commentators predicted the rapid demise of print media. Then, the Internet bubble burst, the tech-heavy NASDAQ stock exchange dropped from 5000 to 1000, and breathless commentators said the Internet would never meet expectations.

The commentators were wrong both times. Print media is not going away and the development of the Internet has proceeded at a more measured pace--including Internet media. So today, like baggers at grocery stores who ask "paper or plastic," media executives are asking "fiber or cyber?" That question was important enough for the American Forest & Paper Association to make it the focus of its Pulp and Paper General Session at the recent Paper Week Conference, held as always at the venerable Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in New York April 9-12.

Keynote speaker John Gillen, president and region manager, North America for Stora Enso, focused on the battle for readers and advertising dollars in "fiber-space and cyberspace." He noted that consumers have 45 hours per week on average to spend on media and that they have become rampant multi-taskers--often watching two or more media at the same time. The good news for magazine publishers. he said, is that consumers give full attention to print more than any other media, with only 10% multi-tasking while reading magazines, according to a recent study. He also noted that since television viewing has fragmented into smaller audiences, the top 25 magazines now reach more consumers than the top 25 TV shows.

Magazines are not ignoring the Internet and are in fact leveraging their print brands on Internet platforms, allowing consumers to slip back and forth between them. "In this era of content overload, readers head for media brands that they trust," said Gillen. "Newspapers and magazines act as lighthouses in this media frenzy."

Nina Link, president and CEO of the Magazine Publishers Association (MPA), also sees a bright future for magazines. She noted that the MPA has launched an ad campaign envisioning consumers reading magazines 100 years in the future. "We believe in our future. Magazines are informative, entertaining, and viewed as a trusted friend. Few types of mass media are as eagerly awaited by consumers," she said.

Significantly, magazines offer the most positive attitude from readers toward advertisements of any medium. Link noted that 84% of adults 18 and over and 80% of teenagers read magazines. The market is still growing, with ad dollars in 2005 reaching US$ 23 billion, compared with US$ 21.4 billion the previous year. Link highlighted the efforts of the Magazine Marketing Coalition, a group of magazine publishers, printers and paper companies that promotes print publications to media buyers. The campaign includes advertising, public relations, and other marketing efforts. The campaign has been a success, creating a measurable increase in favorable awareness for print publications among media buyers.

Chuck Richard, vice president and lead analyst for Outsell Inc., was less sanguine about the future of print media. His research and advisory firm has studied where and why advertisers and news users are moving online, and the study paints a "good news/bad news" picture for print.

He noted that in 2005 online media revenues were up 19%, while print (magazines and newspapers) grew 3%, events 6%, and TV/radio 2%. Notably, the two largest online media advertising merchants, Google and Yahoo, generated US$ 4.7 billion revenue growth in 2005--more than the combined growth of the top 10 print media companies, at US$ 3 billion.

Even print media's most loyal customers--consumer packaged goods companies--are embracing the Internet. A recent page 1 article in the Wall Street Journal notes, "After years of cautiously experimenting with Web marketing, powerhouse advertisers like General Mills Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc. are cranking up online spending." Ominously, younger readers are already demonstrating a dramatic preference for online media. While people 50 and older generally prefer newspapers and TV as their primary news sources, people 18-39 generally prefer Web sites such as Google, Yahoo, MSN and AOL as their primary news sources, according to the Outsell survey.

So, the question remains, cyber or fiber? While print is holding its own, habits are clearly changing as new generations of readers mature. Print will survive, but will most likely morph into a new form--perhaps one that emphasizes a "high quality" reading experience for customers that want to get away from the "mass" experience on the Web. Stay tuned!

ALAN ROOKS

Editorial Director

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Contact Alan at [phone], or by e-mail at: [e-mail]