Is "small" still beautiful? (First In/First Out).

Mark: What is it with these tiny disk formats? They just don't seem to fly.

Hal: Yup. The latest one to fold is DataPlay. It was a disk the size of a 25-cent-piece. The music industry desperately wanted some physical medium with a proprietary format with which to counter the trend toward downloading tunes and recording your own custom CDs. There was supposed to be a writable version, too, but the primary business model was to replicate and distribute prerecorded music.

Mark: Sub-2.5-inch form factors have a history of flopping. Remember Iomega's "Clik!"?

Hal: Yup. And DataPlay proves that having plenty of corporate rah-rah isn't enough if the public isn't clamoring for your new toy.

Mark: Who were the cheerleaders?

Hal: Nobody you every heard of! Only Kodak, Imation, Intel, Samsung, Toshiba... a few others too. They were in the hardware and media space. The content-providers included Arista, BMG, EMI and Universal.

Mark: Did all these folks just run out of money?

Hal: Well, the word on the street is that they had $120 million to blow, and they blew it. They folded their tent in November.

Mark: They didn't even wait to see if they'd get a Christmas present?

Hal: Nope. It was lump-of-coal time in the old stocking. Apparently they need $40-50 million more to launch it.

Mark: I guess size matters. It makes me think the 3.5-inch format may not be safe, either. Fujitsu still makes MO in that form factor, but when it comes to hard disk drives, they're doing 2.5-inchers

Hal: If I were you, I wouldn't start writing an obituary for 3.5-inch HDDs. Maxtor's got a new line, called DiamondMax Plus, based on 80GB platters and that gives them 160GB in their model "Plus9" drives.

Mark: But with the proliferation of 2.5-inchers, even disk arrays are shrinking. JMR has introduced a rack-mounted array in 1U size. They got it down that small by using 2.5-inch disks.

Hal: I'm not saying 2.5-inch is overrated. IBM--which made a big noise, last year, about getting out of the HDD business--is apparently back in it, at least when it comes to 2.5-inch drives for its "TravelStar" line. IBM has started making them with a thin layer of ruthenium atoms in the platter.

Mark: They like to call it "Pixie Dust." Cute, huh?

Hal: Gidget Goes Gigabyte.

They're claiming 80GB for a 2.5-inch drive.

Mark: You mentioned Maxtor, before. It's focusing on ATA, with its 3.5-inch MaXLine drives. I've heard analysts say that ATA will outsell SCSI by 2004. And possibly even sooner, if Serial ATA catches on.

Hal: Why would it catch on?

Mark: Because it's cheap. Serial ATA is a variation on ATA that enables throughput specs to rival plain-vanilla SCSI, at a lower cost. And that will help to push disk-to-disk backup, for primary backup applications. If HDDs are cheap enough and reliable enough to do essentially the same job, why use tape?

Hal: This may be a good moment to offer up some predictions for 2003. You cited some analysts' ideas. Give me one of your own.

Mark: Well, notwithstanding the growing expectations for ATA HDDs, I'll say that tape will not dry up and blow away. The role of tape may change, but as a medium, it won't vanish.

Hal: And I'll go out on a limb and say that, by next Christmas, the HDD industry will be breaking out the champagne to toast the DVR. That's the home digital television recorder. With an HDD inside, there are enough advantages over the VCR to bring in the next wave of consumers--the ones who wait for the "early adopters" to work Out the kinks, and then start buying. DVD players are already cheap, and the sales curve is a ski-jump. So, I figure a lot of people will consider investing in a new recording device, too, and that'll give a boost to HDD OEMs all around.

Mark: Let's see if our readers have some predictions of their own.

Hal: And let's not compete for them.

Mark: Good idea. Send your predictions to: [e-mail] or [e-mail]