Iraq has been the first country to experience the way in which Pax Americana is adopting a harder global profile.

Iraq has been the first country to experience the way in which Pax Americana is adopting a harder global profile. Between mid-March and early April, the country's Baathist regime was on the receiving end of a military campaign unparallelled in history, either in terms of the technologies deployed or the ease with which results were achieved. The American and British blitzkrieg, by air and on land, caused the collapse of the Baathist regime within three weeks. From the global perspective, it no longer matters whether Saddam Hussein is dead or hiding.

Operation Iraqi Freedom showed the world, and more importantly the regimes in the Middle East, what the US could do to a country regarded as the most advanced in the Arab World in terms of its indigenous defence capabilities. The implications for the others in the region are clear, namely that countries which do not fall in line with the American way will sooner or later find themselves targeted by another such operation. Neighbours of Iraq, such as Iran and Syria, are already concerned that they may be next on the list; and Washington has started applying pressures through various channels, suggesting that they might be right (see Diplomat's News Service No. 21).

In Iraq, Pax Americana is now in the post-war phase. Iraq will be the first American experiment in a grand plan to re-order the Middle East, a plan conceived by neo-conservative ideologues in Washington in the early 1990s, but which crystallised and began to receive presidential support only after the events of Sept. 11, 2001. This vision is of the creation of a stable democratic order in the Middle East, at peace with Israel.

President Bush has repeatedly maintained that those who say the people of the region are not ready for democracy are wrong. Earlier this year he said: "There was a time when many said that the cultures of Japan and Germany were incapable of sustaining democratic values. Well, they were wrong. Some say the same of Iraq today. They are mistaken. The nation of Iraq -- with its proud heritage, abundant resources and skilled and educated people -- is fully capable of moving toward democracy and living in freedom".

Political moves began immediately in the post-war environment aimed at creating such an order. On April 15, almost as soon as Saddam's hometown of Tikrit - the last regime bastion to fall - was captured by a US-led force, a conference of opponents of Saddam was convened at a reception centre near Nasiriyah in the shadow of the ziggurat at Ur, the city that thrived 500 years before Christ and where Abraham was born. Some 75 Iraqis long opposed to the Baathist regime attended. There was no fixed agenda but there was strong emphasis that the diverse spread of leaders, including exiles, should forge a consensus on plans for the authority. The meeting was less successful than anticipated, and it was boycotted by the majority Shiite community (see following pages).

In the US as well as in Britain, enthusiasm for the democratic experiment in Iraq seems to have been dampened by the realities on the ground, in particular the upsurge of Shiite Islamist tendencies. Several powerful Shiite theologians, having kept a low profile under the Baathist regime, are now exercising their political clout to influence their respective constituencies - and these constituencies range from those who are pro-American to those who are as anti-American as the Baathists, if not worse. Meanwhile, Shiite zealots, allegedly trained by Iranian theocrats to fill the power vacuum left by Saddam's Baathist regime, are spreading through the whole of southern Iraq.

The situation on the ground in Iraq, including sporadic ambush attacks against US soldiers that left several dead in the last week of May, suggests that there are no prospects of a stable democratic order on the near horizon. But at the same time, all indications are that the US is in Iraq to stay for as long as it takes to achieve order. It will have friends and allies in this task, with some unconfirmed reports indicating that Iraq may be divided into five administrative zones with each to be handled by a different ally of the US.

Moreover, UN Security Council Resolution 1483, adopted on May 22, has given universal legitimacy for the US-led coalition forces in Iraq to act as occupiers of a country that should be transformed thoroughly. Issues encompassed by the resolution are to be reviewed within a year, but by then the occupation will have been legitimised by various local and multilateral linkages - including the fact that the operational government in Iraq will be one that is answerable to the American civilian and military authorities. This American overlordship of Iraq will outlast all those who try to challenge it, and it will have profound implications for the region (see this week's News Service).