Iraq after Saddam: the ousted dictator's capture is good news, but whether it leads to fewer attacks on U.S. forces is far from clear.

With the apprehension of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein on December 14 in a hole in the ground in Ad Dwar, near his hometown of Tikrit, the U.S.-led coalition scored its biggest victory since the fall of Saddam's government in April.

Capturing Saddam had different meanings for those involved in the Iraq conflict. For the U.S. military, it was a necessary step toward defeating the armed opposition to the U.S. occupation of Iraq, depriving insurgents of a rallying symbol.

For thousands of Iraqis, the images of a bearded and dazed Saddam in the hands of U.S. forces was visual proof that the dictator was never going to claw his way back to power and terrorize the Iraqi population anew.

For President Bush and his administration, the capture was a major victory, and also the profoundly satisfying final act in a personal drama involving both him and his father, former President George H.W. Bush.

(During the Persian Gulf war in 1991, undertaken to expel Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait, the first President Bush decided not to send troops to topple Saddam, believing he would fall in an internal coup or revolution. But Saddam survived, and in 1993 he engineered a failed attempt to assassinate the first President Bush.)

Among Iraqis, the imprisonment of Saddam will almost certainly help improve the U.S. military's reputation, tarnished by the persistent guerrilla attacks. That is important because to win Iraqis' hearts and minds, the United States must persuade the Iraqi people that its military is a winner and capable of establishing the security of Iraq.

FOREIGN TERRORISTS REMAIN

But apprehending Saddam is probably not enough to put a quick end to the insurgency. First, there is little reason to think that Saddam was orchestrating attacks on U.S. troops from his rodent-infested hideout. Many of the day-to-day leaders of the insurgency are probably still at large.

Second, several thousand rebels--members of Saddam's Baath party and possibly former Iraqi army officers and soldiers--lost their privileged positions in Iraqi society with Saddam's removal, and have everything to gain by driving out the Americans.

Third, foreign terrorists have come to Iraq to take on the Americans. For terrorists, it is no longer necessary to sneak into the United States or attack American warships in distant ports. All they need to do is go to Iraq.

MORALE BOOSTER 

But a senior Bush administration official, while cautioning that violence will probably continue for some time, says the capture of Saddam, who will likely face an Iraqi war crimes trial, is heartening for several reasons. "It certainly is a blow to the resistance," the official says. "It's bad for their morale, and great for the morale of the coalition. It will help in the effort to stop the violence from the opposition, and it may make the people we now have in custody a little bit more cooperative."

Saddam's arrest also came as the 2004 election campaign begins, and at least right afterwards, Democratic presidential candidates--even those who had criticized the war--had little choice other than to congratulate the President.

"This is a day to celebrate the fact that Saddam's been caught," said Howard Dean, who has taken a strong position against the war, the day after Saddam's capture. "We'll have to wait to see what happens to the campaign later."

RELATED ARTICLE: But where's Bin Laden?

By David Rohde in Pakistan

The man behind 9/11 is proving harder to catch than Saddam Hussein

If American forces could find Saddam Hussein hiding in an eight-foot-deep hole in central Iraq, why haven't they been able to track down Osama bin Laden or the former Taliban Leader of Afghanistan, Mullah Muhammad Omar?

American, Pakistani, and Afghan officials and terrorism experts say that the searches are enormously different.

For starters, there are 10,000 American troops in Afghanistan, compared with 120,000 in Iraq. Bin Laden has also chosen better terrain to hide in--the soaring mountain peaks and crags of the sparsely populated 1,500-mile border between Afghanistan and Pakistan--an area he knows well, having lived there for the last decade.

Bin Laden is believed to communicate only by courier and letter to deter the U.S. from tracking him electronically. He is thought to travel with a small group of intensely loyal followers, probably fewer than a dozen, who appear more loyal than Saddam's were: Efforts to infiltrate the group with a mole, or coax a betrayal with $25 million in reward money, seem to have failed.

Omar is thought to be hiding in southern Afghanistan.

A terrorism expert notes that it took the F.B.I. five years to find the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing suspect, who was hiding in the U.S. and was the focus of one of the largest manhunts in American history.

LESSON PLANS

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* What do you think should be done with Saddam Hussein?

* What should the United States do if attacks on American troops continue--leave the country, send in more troops, or adopt some other type of strategy?

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand why the capture of Saddam Hussein may not stanch the anti-American violence in Iraq and--at least in the short run--could even increase it.

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

BEFORE READING: Ask for a show of hands. How many students believe that the capture of Saddam Hussein will result in a lessening of the attacks against American troops in Iraq?

CRITICAL THINKING/WRITING: What does Saddam's capture say about his power? Did his power derive from the people he ruled (and who turned him in)? What does the article say about a link between the capture of Saddam and an end to the attacks against Americans?

Direct attention to reasons one and two in the article that explain why the anti-American violence may continue. Ask students-to imagine that they work for U.S. Army intelligence. Their job is to write one-page flyers that will be air-dropped over rebel areas in Iraq.

What would they say to rebels to persuade them that (a) the U.S. military is a winner; (b) that the Americans can provide security'in Iraq; and (c) that members of the Baath party and former members of Iraq's military will have a future in a Saddam-free Iraq?

DISCUSSION/TRYING SADDAM: The article notes that Saddam will likely face an Iraqi war-crimes trial. Ask students whether American judges should be part of the trial panel. What are the pros and cons of having Americans participate? Should other foreign judges participate?

Tell students that one proposal is to try Saddam before the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands. But this body will not impose a death sentence. Would that fact deter students from choosing this option?

WED WATCH: See a State Department view of current events in Iraq at www.state.gov/p/nea/ci/c3212.htm. To see a relief map of eastern Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding, go to www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/afghanistan_rel_2002.jpg.

Upfront QUIZ 3

DIRECTIONS: Circle the fetter next to the correct answer.

1. The U.S. military sees the capture of Saddam Hussein as a necessary step in

a ridding the world of dictators.

b defeating opposition to U.S. occupation forces.

c exacting revenge for Saddam's assassination attempt on the first President Bush.

d obtaining repayment of loans made to Iraq.

2. The 1991 Persian Gulf war began after Iraq invaded

a Saudi Arabia.

b Jordan.

c Kuwait.

d Iran.

3. Why didn't the U.S. pursue Saddam after the 1991 war?

a The U.S. believed Saddam's army was too strong.

b U.S. troops were eager to return home.

c President Bush's father, President George H.W. Bush, believed a coup or revolution would topple Saddam.

d Congress decided that the financial cost of pushing into Baghdad would be too high.

4. Why do American leaders believe that Saddam's capture may not end the attacks on the U.S. military in Iraq?

a Saddam is still able to communicate with his guerrillas.

b Osama bin Laden has taken over for Saddam.

c There aren't enough U.S. troops to defeat the guerrillas.

d Many leaders of the rebellion are likely still free.

5. What immediate effect did Saddam's capture have on domestic politics in the U.S.?

a Congress issued formal congratulations to the military.

b It helped Democratic candidate Dr. Howard Dean.

c Polls found it would increase voter turnout in primaries.

d It forced Democratic presidential candidates who had criticized the war to congratulate President Bush.

6. Which of the following factors is cited as inhibiting the capture of Osama bin Laden by U.S. troops?

a Bin Laden is smarter than Saddam Hussein.

b He's being sheltered by Pakistan's government.

c He's hiding in sparsely populated mountainous terrain.

d He can electronically monitor U.S. troop movements.

ANSWER KEY

1. (b) defeating opposition to U.S. occupation forces.

2. (c) Kuwait.

3. (c) President G.H.W. Bush believed Saddam would be toppled.

4. (d) Many leaders of the rebellion are likely still free.

5. (d) It forced Democratic candidates to congratulate President Bush.

6. (c) He's hiding in sparsely populated mountainous terrain.

Michael R. Gordon is chief military correspondent of The New York Times. With reporting by Todd S. Purdum and Adam Nagourney.