Iraq, Lebanon & The Palestinians Face Civil War Prospects; But Bush Won't Rush Out.

*** Saudis Warn The Iran Theocracy They Will Launch An Oil Price War And Military Hostilities If The Shi'ites In Iraq Tried To Massacre The Sunnis In The Event of US Withdrawal; This Comes After VP Dick Cheney Had Talks In Riyadh With King Abdullah Nov. 25; National Security Chief Prince Bandar Later Flew To Amman To Brief Abdullah II On The Outcome Of The Nov. 25 Meetings, As Sunni Arab Regimes Now Co-ordinate Their Moves Regarding Iran & Syria; US-Led Forces Catch Jaysh Ansar Al-Sunna 'Emirs' Of Iraq, Tikrit, Al-Qa'im, Ramadi, Ba'quba, Baiji And Baghdad As The Americans Concentrate Their Efforts On The Neo-Salafi Militant Groups Who Want To Set Up A Caliphate 

Amman - Before crisis talks in Amman between visiting US President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, King Abdullah II of Jordan on Nov. 26 warned that the Middle East was on the verge of three civil wars - in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. He said "something dramatic" needed to come out of the Nov. 30 meeting between Bush and Maliki.

The warning added to the intensifying pressure on the Bush administration to map out a fresh strategy for ending the war in Iraq, which on Dec. 4 entered its 1,354th day. King Abdullah said the US needed to see the "big picture" and pursue a regional solution, indicating his support for American engagement with Iran and Syria in pursuit of an end to worsening violence. But Bush does not want to engage Syria, while he might have a dialogue with Iran for the sake of a stable Iraq (see fap6-IraqCwarDec4-06).

King Abdullah told CNN: "We're juggling with the strong potential of three civil wars in the region". Engagement with Iran is expected to be a key recommendation from the Iraq Study Group (ISG), a US Congress-mandated bipartisan commission led by former secretary of state James Baker and former Democrat congressman Lee Hamilton. The ISG met on Nov. 27-28 for deliberations before delivering its report to the White House on Dec. 6.

The diplomatic push for a co-ordinated regional approach to the conflict in Iraq gained momentum on Nov. 27 when Iraq's Kurdish President Jalal Talabani began a visit to Tehran for talks on easing sectarian tensions. President Bush first indicated his administration was ready to consider a radical change in direction of its Iraq policy in the wake of Republican defeats in the Nov. 7 mid-term elections. Democrats, emboldened by their sweep of Congress, on Nov. 26 stepped up pressure on the administration to announce a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq. Congressman Ike Skelton, the incoming chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, called for troop withdrawals to begin within the next year.

Hundreds of thousands of opponents of Lebanon's pro-West government on Dec. 1 took over the centre of Beirut, demanding the resignation of PM Fou'ad Siniora and formation of a national unity government. The crowd was kept away from government offices by lines of soldiers, barbed wire and army vehicles. The most senior opposition politician to address the demonstration, Christian leader Gen. Michel Aoun, railed against the government's "mistakes" and "corruption". He called on his followers to "continue the sit-in, but not in these numbers, until we reach our goals".

Thousands of activists stayed well into the evening. Opposition men vowed to blockade the main government offices in central Beirut - a move which pro-government figure Samir Franjiyeh on Dec. 1 described as "a civil war decision" and a coup attempt co-sponsored by Iran and Syria. This is where Siniora and several of his ministers have been staying since the Nov. 21 assassination of anti-Syria Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel (see news22LebNov27-06).

Ministers on Dec. 1 again vowed to stay on. The demonstrators, mainly from the Iran-sponsored Hizbullah movement and the Syria-backed Amal party of Shi'ite Parliament Speaker Nabir Berri, were decked out in their colours. Many brandished Lebanese flags and had their faces painted in the Lebanese colours. They were markedly more exuberant than the million of anti-Syria government supporters who attended Gemayel's funeral ceremony in the centre of Beirut in the previous week. Hizbullah's Shi'ite followers and Gen Aoun's Christian supporters appeared to have only partially overlapping political agendas but they were united in their disapproval of the Sunni leader of the anti-Syria camp, Sa'd Hariri, the son of assassinated former PM Rafiq Hariri. "Die, die, Sa'd die", several groups of demonstrators chanted. Hizbullah's supporters mainly voiced anger at what they described as the government's "betrayal" of the Shi'ites during their

34-day war with Israel in July and August. The FT on Dec. 2 quoted "63 year-old Fatemi Nasri who had come [to central Beirut] from the south of Lebanon together with her granddaughter" as saying: "I am here for our dignity. Siniora supports Israel and America".

Many demonstrators took up the theme of the government's alleged pro-Israel bias, with some disparaging chants taking aim at anti-Syria minister Ahmad Fatfat, calling him "a Jew". Banners demanded the resignation of the "Feltman government", in a reference to the US ambassador in Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman.

Gen Aoun's supporters, who appeared to number less than 500, were more focused on the alleged corruption of the cabinet, with many referring to it as "a government of thieves". But their main reason for attending the demonstration was a demand which had so far remained unvoiced by either Hizbullah or Gen Aoun's movement. The FT quoted a "group of demonstrators sporting [Aoun's] orange umbrella's on their heads" as saying: "We are here because we want the general as president of Lebanon".