Iran War Games Suggest Tehran Anticipates US-Led Invasion; Odd Moves On Minorities.

*** The New Israeli Govt. Of Ehud Olmert Will Spend The Rest Of This Year Exhausting The Possibility Of Talks With The Palestinians Before Embarking On A Unilateral Programme Of Withdrawals From The West Bank; He Would Spend That Time Trying To Persuade The Sceptical EU Govts. That Israel Had No Option But To Go It Alone If Negotiations Foundered; Hamas Won't Let Abbas Succeed Where It Has Failed; Bush 'Accepted' The View That Israel Must Act Alone If Things Don't Turn Out The Way USA Had Wanted For A Peace Process Gone Wrong - Partly Thanks To Actions By The Arab Side; Assad's Regime Keeps Waiting

NICOSIA - The command of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite force of a Shi'ite theocracy drifting towards confrontation with Western powers over its nuclear ambitions, seems to anticipate a rapid US-led and multi-fronted invasion of the country. Judging by the pattern of its exercises in recent months, the IRGC has mobilised in various parts of the country and shifted from conventional to guerrilla warfare. It has deployed the largest force in the oil-rich province of Khuzistan, which borders with southern Iraq.

IRGC planners are said to believe that the first step taken by a US-led invading force would be to occupy Khuzistan, secure the Strait of Hormuz and cut off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks. But Asia Times Online (ATO) on May 24 quoted foreign "diplomats who monitor Iran's army" as saying the Iranian leadership had "acknowledged it stands little chance of defeating the US Army with conventional military doctrine".

However, Western defence experts discount the possibility of a conventional military invasion in the first phase of a war on Iran. They say the first phase would consist of massive air/missile waves of attacks with no foot soldiers to be involved. A land invasion would follow destruction of the strategic targets.

For its part, IRGC's shift to guerrilla warfare against an occupying army in the aftermath of a successful invasion mirrors developments in Iraq - where ATO says "a triumphant US campaign has been followed by three years of slow hemorrhaging at the hands of insurgents". Tehran seems to argue that it is at a high level of preparedness and points to a number of war games carried out in recent months along its coastal zones, from Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz in January to the Persian Gulf in April and the Khorramshahr naval base and the north-western parts of the Persian Gulf as from May 21.

Experts say this would be a quick war, in contrast to the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war characterised by trench fighting and tens of thousands of dead in return for minuscule advances. And while doing a series of military exercises testing its new military dogma, Iran has been quietly restructuring its military.

In December, more than 15,000 members of the regular armed forces participated in war games in north-western Iran's strategically sensitive East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan border provinces which focused on irregular warfare carried out by highly mobile and speedy army units. A second exercise was launched in the partly-Arab Khuzistan, aimed at quelling insurgencies in areas subject to ethnic unrest and prone to foreign influence.

Involving 100,000 troops, the exercise in Khuzistan provided a taste of how the theocracy would respond to further disturbances in the strategic, oil-rich province. The exercise came on the heels of news that the irregular Basij forces that led Iran's offensives against Iraq in 1980-88 were being bolstered by "Ashoura" forces with riot-control training.

It is part of a fundamental transition which the IRGC is undergoing as it moves away from focusing on waging its defence on borders and towards drawing the enemy into the heartland and defeating it with asymmetrical tactics. But the US may have a different strategy.

At the same time, the IRGC is moving away from a joint command with the regular armed forces and taking a more prominent role in controlling Iran's often porous borders, even as it makes each of Iran's border provinces autonomous in the event of war.

ATO said in its May 24 report: "From several interviews with Iranian officials, researchers and foreign diplomats, it is clear that the Iranian army considers itself ready to repel a US land offensive and increasingly sees itself as the main regional power". In line with the new feeling of invulnerability sweeping through Iran's military elite, IRGC commander-in-chief Gen. Yehya Rahim Safavi in April warned that "the Americans should accept Iran as a great regional power, and they should know that sanctions and military threats are not going to benefit them but are going to be against their interests and against the interests of some European countries".

The new asymmetrical-warfare plan appears to be aimed at neutralising US-led offensives across the Mandali-Ilam (central Iraq-central Iran) axis. The Iranian Zagros mountain range offers a natural first line of defence. It has been reported that the IRGC is building new bases at Khorramabad, Pessyan, Borujerd, Zagheh and Malayer in the province of Lorestan, which would assure the logistics of a quarter of a million troops and provide temporary shelter for half a million refugees from the border. These bases are supposedly complementing older ones further west at Sahneh and Kangavar.

ATO quoted an IRGC member "Hossein" as saying: "We know for a fact that no two Western wars are similar, and we know there are at least three possible scenarios of attacking these [nuclear] sites, including using their submarines in the Persian Gulf, commandos from the sea, or Mujahideen-e-Khalq trained in Israel and Azerbaijan to destroy the Bushehr nuclear power plant from the inside".

"Even while Iran's military is choosing to go low-tech", ATO added, "the country's leadership is continuing to apply advanced technology to military uses. Tehran is continuing with development of its long-range missiles and is forging ahead on its indigenous satellite program that centers on Russian-supplied technology".

Iran's ageing air-defence system will be boosted by Russian-supplied land-to-air rockets. Iran also has ageing Chinese missiles which it upgraded and could deploy on coastal batteries, fast attack boats or even warplanes. ATO said: "were Iran to possess the fearsome Russian-made 3M-82 Moskit anti-ship missiles, it could turn the Persian Gulf into a death trap for the US fleet".

ATO quoted "Abdurrahman Shayyal, a Saudi Middle East and North Africa analyst", as saying: "While Iranian air power is somewhat limited, it has much in terms of land-to-air weaponry and has improvised much as well. Furthermore, Iran has proved rather hard to infiltrate, and its military installations and bases are very well protected".

With the confrontation between Washington and Tehran escalating, a new US-inspired plan to establish an anti-Iranian security regime has further raised tension in the Persian Gulf. Apart from running covert operations inside Iran's ethnically mixed border provinces, the US is marshalling an alliance of Iran's Arab neighbours in the intensifying face-off.

The Western media reported recently that the US was trying to create a regional missile-defence system for the Arab side of the Gulf (GCC) which would be integrated with real-time intelligence using sophisticated US Navy Aegis cruisers. But ATO quoted Muhammad Reza Saedabadi, an assistant professor at the Institute of North American and European Studies at the University of Tehran, as saying: "Any security regime for the Persian Gulf that doesn't include Iran will not succeed. It's splitting the region. It's good for the arms race and for arms sales to Persian Gulf (GCC) states, but not for regional security".

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice keeps raising the tension by refusing to offer Iran a guarantee that the US would not attack it, having recently said: "Iran is a troublemaker in the international system, a central banker of terrorism. Security assurances are not on the table".

While seen as potentially threatening by GCC states, Iran commands significant popularity among indigenous Shi'ite communities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. To a lesser extend, Sunnis in the GCC region and the wider Middle East applaud Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad for his strident anti-Western rhetoric, which emphasises his country's independence and echoes the anti-imperialist liberation ideology of pan-Arabism of the 1960s. Reflecting this mood, the English-language Gulf News on May 23 published an editorial titled "An American offer we must refuse". It said: "As if the region was not volatile enough, the US now wants to install an advanced missile system in GCC states. Gulf countries have enough problems trying to walk a narrow path between the various positions...so there is no need to exacerbate things further by introducing into the region such controversial measures as heightened security controls and advanced missile systems".

At a "consultative summit" in Riyadh on May 6, the six GCC states indicated that they did not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. But they were also opposed to the use of force against it. Their position bears greater similarity with the stance taken by Russia and China than the one adopted by the US and its EU allies. (Created on May 25, 1981, the GCC's members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

ATO quoted the Saudi analyst Shayyal as saying: "The US is being completely ridiculous. While it wishes to police the region, it is dealing with a country that is significantly more powerful than Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Vietnam, and every other country bar Germany that it has ever fought".

Israel's new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on May 24 addressed a joint session of the US Congress where he spoke of a "dark and gathering storm casting its shadow over the world", comparing Iran's nuclear ambitions with slavery and the Soviet gulags. Referring to calls by Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad for Israel to be wiped off the map, Olmert described Iran as an "existential threat".

The Bush administration has rejected calls for a direct dialogue with Iran and said it had taken steps towards closing differences with Europe, China and Russia on a package of incentives and threats of punishment for Tehran. After a day of talks in London on a package intended to persuade Iran to give up its uranium enrichment programme, Secretary of State Rice on May 24 said more work needed to be done in coming days or weeks.

The US and EU are working with China and Russia on an approach which everyone involved calls "carrots and sticks". The carrots are a set of benefits, effectively integrating Iran into a web of co-operation with the West on economic, nuclear energy and security issues if it suspends uranium enrichment and takes other steps. The sticks are a set of economic and diplomatic sanctions if Iran refuses. (So far Iran has said it will not suspend uranium enrichment, an activity it defends as civilian in nature while Western governments have maintained that it is a prelude to making nuclear weapons).

EU and US officials on May 24 indicated that the two sides still differed on their approaches towards incentives and punishments. The Europeans favour offering Iran extensive help with civilian nuclear technology and commercial incentives in a way that would require US participation of some sort. They seek a "security framework" for Iran to address its concerns about being attacked. The Bush administration has resisted both ideas, especially anything that would suggest the US giving some sort of guarantee for the survival of the Shi'ite theocracy. The New York Times has quoted a "senior State Department official" as saying: "Security guarantees are not on the table".

The Bush administration is resisting direct talks with Iran, despite calls for such talks from some policy experts, retired diplomats and others in Washington. European officials say they have got signs from some Iranian officials in the last year that they would welcome direct talks with the US.

Among those favouring such talks has been Ali Larijani, the chief Iranian negotiator on nuclear matters and head of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). Larijani is also close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked with Bush about the possibility of direct negotiations with Iran when she was in Washington recently. But there appeared to be little appetite within the US administration for such an approach. The NYT quoted an administration official as saying: "Is there a discussion on the matter? Yes. Is there a change in policy? No".

Talks On Iraq: On the other hand, officials say the US does want to talk to Iran, but about Iraq, not about Iran's nuclear programme. They say, though, that a firm decision to pursue such talks has not been made.

The US and EU are trying to iron out differences among themselves and with the Russians and the Chinese. The American and European objective is to enhance the offer of incentives to Iran, so as to overcome Russian and Chinese opposition to punitive action if Iran rejects the incentives. But the Bush administration does not want to promise any commercial benefits, whether in helping construct a light-water nuclear reactor or in selling airplanes to Iran, if they involve an immediate lifting of US sanctions on companies engaging in such activities.

In addition, the administration is concerned about the European proposal to establish a security framework in the region which, at least in some fashion, would guarantee protection from attack or overthrow of government. The US, with a long and bitter history of conflict with Iran, finds such an idea distasteful.

US Vice President Dick Cheney leads the charge for regime change in Tehran, including support of dissident groups. But Europeans contend that, without the US participating in a security guarantee, Tehran will not abandon the option of pursuing a nuclear weapons programme - even though Iran officially denies that it has embarked on such a programme.

Visiting Bahrain, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on May 24 said: "The media has repeatedly described the dispute over Iran's nuclear ambitions as a showdown between Tehran and Washington, when in fact competent international organisations and the global community are involved and concerned. It is not a specific Iranian-American conflict, but rather a conflict between the international community and Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council have already stated their opposition".

Steinmeier, on a six-country tour in the Gulf to bolster pressure on Tehran, said diplomacy and concerted efforts were significant. "The international community expects Iran to dispel all doubts that its programme will not be used for military purposes", he said at the end of talks with the Bahraini Foreign Minister, Shaikh Khaled bin Ahmad al-Khalifa. Steinmeier added that all countries needed to work together to ensure that Iran did not develop nuclear military capabilities that could lead to further escalation and insecurity.

Asked by a German reporter if Bahrain's Shi'ites supported the Iranian nuclear weapons, Shaikh Khaled dismissed the reflection, saying "if there were an atomic bomb in the region, it would make no distinction between Sunnis and Shi'ites. Everyone in Bahrain is against the possibility of an atomic bomb in the region".

Visiting Baghdad on May 28, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki ruled out talks with the US over Iraq "for the time being", saying Tehran's decision to accept Washington's offer had been exploited for "propaganda" and that the US had "raised other issues" without specifying what they were.

The proposal was made in March by US Ambassador to Iraq Zilmay Khalilzad and accepted by Iran once endorsed by Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and a key Shi'ite ally of Tehran. But the prospect drew strong criticism in both Washington and Tehran from opponents of direct talks between the two countries. In April, the US said the idea was on hold until a new Iraqi government was formed.

Potential dialogue over Iraq has been complicated by manoeuvring among the US, Europe, Russia and China as they try to agree a common policy towards Iran's nuclear programme.

Mottaki was speaking at a press conference with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. In a sign of improved relations between the two neighbours since the overthrow in April 2003 of Ba'thist dictator Saddam, Zebari said Baghdad accepted Iran's right to "scientific and technological abilities to research in the field of nuclear energy for peaceful uses" and praised "the wisdom of the leadership of the Islamic Republic in handling this subject".

While the US and British have accused Iran of backing some Iraqi insurgents, Tehran has claimed that Washington and London have been involved in provoking violence among Iran's ethnic minorities, including the Arabs of the oil-rich south-western province of Khuzistan. Iraqi politicians have long called for talks between the US and Iran to ease regional tension and improve Iraq's security. Ahmad Chalabi, the influential Iraqi Shi'ite, said last year Baghdad could not "sit idly by while other people fight on our territory".

Mottaki later met with Iraq's Kurdish President Jalal Talabani and new Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. The two countries are seeking to extend co-operation in transport and energy, to expand trade, and to improve security for Iranian pilgrims visiting Iraq's Shi'ite holy sites. On May 27, Mottaki visited Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf.