Iran & Pakistan Provide Key Bases For Al-Qaeda; Hizb Ut-Tahrir Now Plays Major Role.

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NICOSIA - A temporary "jihad alliance" between Tehran and Osama bin Laden coincides with a sectarian truce between the Sunni/Wahhabi kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Shi'ite theocracy of Iran, which could also be temporary. But of primary concern to the Western powers is that Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf, now at the weakest point of his presidency, has turned his country into a key base for bin Laden and the Taliban. Like the Iran-led axis, these are at war with the US at a time when the Americans are busy preparing for a tough presidential election in 2008.

Playing a major role in the background of this war is Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), a Sunni trans-national organisation which is close to the Neo-Salafi movement and providing the main manpower base for al-Qaeda in Europe and other parts of the world. HuT is a twin of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), another Sunni trans-national which focuses on the Arab region but has HuT-backed branches in non-Arab parts of the Muslim world (see overleaf).

Quoting Western officials, the FT on July 7 pointed to growing evidence of Iranian territory being used as a base by al-Qaeda to help in terrorist operations in Iraq and elsewhere. The paper said it was not clear how much the al-Qaeda operation, described by one official as a money and communications hub, was being tolerated or encouraged by the Iranian government.

The FT reported the Western officials as saying the group's operatives, who link the al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan with their disciples in Iraq, the Levant and North Africa, moved with relative freedom in Iran, adding: "The officials said the creation of some kind of al-Qaeda hub in Iran appears to be separate from the group of seven senior al-Qaeda (AQ) figures, including Sa'd bin Laden, son of the group's figurehead, that Iran is said to have detained since 2002".

The paper quoted a "senior US official" as saying the information had produced different assessments, adding: "The most conservative, cautious intelligence assessment is that [the Iranian authorities] are turning a blind eye. But there are a lot of doubts about that. They are benefiting from the mayhem that AQ is carrying out. They don't have to deal with al-Qaeda to benefit".

Yet while Tehran might be content with the pressure al-Qaeda is placing on the US occupation in Iraq, Iran as a Shi'ite theocracy surrounded by mainly Sunni states, has long been wary of al-Qaeda's fierce Neo-Salafism. The FT quoted a "former Iranian official" as saying Tehran feared al-Qaeda and did not want to distract it from Iraq, dismissing any idea that Iran was supplying it with weapons, adding: "Our relationship with al-Qaeda, at an intelligence level, can be said to be successful as long as they are at a distance".

Several Sunni extremist groups, some presumed linked to al-Qaeda and from various ethnic groups including Kurds, are in Iran. US-led military action in Iraq has got some to seek refuge over the border. In the past, Tehran has been a target of al-Qaeda attacks. A militant Sunni group based in Pakistan and possibly linked to al-Qaeda was suspected of the 1994 bombing of the shrine of the seventh Shi'ite Imam, Reza, in Mashhad, killing 26 people.

Iran has shown growing concern over Jundullah, a radical Sunni group from the restive south-east area of Baluchestan which has carried out violent attacks in recent years. Three years ago, Pakistani officials said members of al-Qaeda had begun leaving Pakistan's border region close to Afghanistan and heading for Iraq. Of the routes used, going overland via Iran was the easiest. That traffic might have increased as links between al-Qaeda and its Iraq offshoot intensify.

China is said to be arming insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, an issue which has alarmed the US and its allies. The US faces other problems in Iraq (see sbme1-IraqChinaJuly9-07). These include Turkey, which has massed about 140,000 troops on the Iraqi border in preparation for an attack on Kurdish rebels of the PKK.