Iran's Supremacists Stage A Coup By Pushing Larijani Out & Defying The West.

*** Those Behind Ahmadi-Nejad Want A War With The US; The IRGC Missile Chief Gen. Mahmoud Chaharbaghi On Oct 20 Said Iran Could Fire 11,000 Rockets Within 'One Minute' Of An Attack; Israeli Military Expert Martin Van Creveld On Oct 24 Said: 'This Is Nonsense - Short- Range, Inaccurate Katyushas Apart - No Country Has Nearly That Many Rockets'; And Iran's Anti- Aircraft Defence System, Mostly Russian, Is As Vulnerable As That Of Syria Which Failed To Prevent Sept. 6 Air Strike On A Nuke Facility In The Deir Ez- Zor Region Said To Have Been Built By N. Korea

*** WTI, Which Rose Above $92/B On Oct 26, Could Hit $100 In The Event Of A War

TEHRAN - Using President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad as a front, the supremacist wing of Iran's Shi'ite theocracy has staged another coup by getting rid of Ali Larijani, who on Oct. 20 resigned as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and as chief negotiator over Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions. It is now steering Iran towards a confrontation with the West. Ahmadi-Nejad has said repeatedly there is no need for Iran to negotiate over its nuclear programme. He says for Tehran "the nuclear file is closed".

The supremacists, whose spiritual guide is Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, include a radical faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which controls Iran's nuclear programme and to which Ahmadi-Nejad and Larijani's successor Sa'id Jalili belong. With Mesbah-Yazdi being the most uncompromising among intolerant theocrats in Iran, the supremacists believe Iran as a nation is superior to the others. They think Iran is capable of defeating the US in the Middle East and, by implication, of controlling the world through Islam.

However, the Shi'ites only account for 10% of a Muslim world of 1.4 bn which is predominantly Sunni. Arab opponents of Iran accuse it of trying to revive the Persian empire to dominate the Middle East through a combination of sectarian and nuclear means. Leading this opposition are the Sunni politicians of Iraq, Sunni Arab states allied with the US, and organisations affected negatively by the behaviour of the theocracy. As a result, Tehran is falling into a trap of Arab-Persian conflict (see news17-IranInArabPersianConfrntnOct22-07).

Ahmadi-Nejad on Oct. 23 said Tehran had no need for negotiations over its nuclear programme, indicating a lack of interest in talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Speaking hours before Jalili had talks in Rome on UN Security Council (UNSC) demands for a suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment, Ahmadi-Nejad said: "We believe if you talk about your [inalienable] rights, you will definitely lose part of them". Jalili was accompanied to Rome by Larijani and the latter did most of the talking with Solana and the international media.

Ahmadi-Nejad's words, uttered before he returned from Armenia, came amid an acute political crisis which led to Larijani's resignation and his replacement with Jalili, a puppet of the supremacists. The move, a consolidation of supremacist power, provoked a chorus of domestic criticism.

Ali-Akbar Velayati, a senior foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: "It would have been definitely better if this had not happened in the existing negative international atmosphere", adding that officials should have practised "tolerance". More than 180 members of the conservative-dominated parliament issued a statement on Oct. 23 thanking Larijani for his "valuable efforts".

The talks with Solana - representing the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany - were at the heart of a long-running dispute between Larijani and Ahmadi-Nejad. While Iran wants to continue its co-operation with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Ahmadi-Nejad has been opposed to talks with Solana, since he has said Iran would never accept a suspension of uranium enrichment as demanded by UNSC resolutions.

Khamenei, however, has kept Larijani as his representative on the SNSC and in negotiations with both Solana and the IAEA. This has caused confusion among the six world powers, with Larijani's presence giving them an assurance that Khamenei's pragmatism prevails - while Jalili's role is providing signals to the opposite.

Jalili, 42, was until Oct. 20 a deputy foreign minister of minor importance. He once served in Khamenei's office. But, like his ally Ahmadi-Nejad, Jalili is a puppet of the IRGC and lacks the negotiating skills of Dr. Larijani, a son and son-in-law of prominent ayatollahs and a highly respected figure in the conservative camp to which Khamenei belongs. The message behind the duality in Iran's negotiating posture now is that Tehran expects confrontation, even a military one.

First signs of IRGC's opposition to EU talks emerged earlier in October when, in a reference to Larijani, Ahmadi-Nejad attacked those who "on their own negotiate on the nuclear issue...but should know if they want to go for a new game, there will be no achievement but regret and disgrace for them". Larijani decided to resign after that speech but Khamenei asked him to stay on. He is to remain at least until Iran completes a "work plan" - the August deal with the IAEA whereby Tehran should clear up questions about suspect behaviour in its nuclear file. The resignation was also prompted by the Oct. 16-17 visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Larijani hinted Putin had given Khamenei a warning; Ahmadi-Nejad presented the visit as a big victory for Iran.

US Hits IRGC/Quds: US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Oct. 25 announced sweeping unilateral sanctions against the IRGC and its international arm, the Quds Force. She and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called for other states and international financial institutions to follow the US. Ms Rice said: "These actions will help to protect the international financial system from the illicit activities of the Iranian government. They will provide a powerful deterrent to every international bank and company that thinks of doing business with the Iranian government".

Some of Washington's closest allies in Europe, however, expressed misgivings. They fear the move could complicate efforts to reach agreement on new UNSC sanctions, which Washington and the EU want to see passed before end-2007. The FT on Oct. 26 quoted a French diplomat as saying: "We understand the concern of the US but we prefer to go to the UN". Referring to the Oct. 25 combination of anti-nuclear proliferation and anti-terrorism measures, he added: "We shouldn't mix everything. For us, non-proliferation is what comes first as the pressing issue".

The Oct. 25 steps call Quds a backer of terrorism for aiding "the Taliban and other terrorist organisations". They classify the IRGC; the logistics arm of Iran's defence ministry; Iran's largest bank, Bank Melli; and Bank Mellat as "of proliferation concern" for their role in Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile works. They ban transactions between the organisations and persons or firms in the US - as well as freezing any assets they may have under US jurisdiction. Banks Saderat and Sepah, previously hit by US sanctions, were named by the Treasury as financers of terrorism. The IRGC is not entirely military - about 30% of its operations is business-related, generating about $2 bn in annual income. US officials say the steps will choke their dollar financing by prohibiting other banks or firms accessing the US financial system on their behalf.

The move comes in the context of increased US frustration over Russian and Chinese reluctance to agree a package of UN sanctions against Iran. US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said: "We are six months past the date where we should have seen a third [UNSC]...resolution". Russia has warned it will be less willing to contemplate UN action if the US or EU make unilateral moves.