InvestaPundit.They say the market as a whole is smarter than any individual investor. Therefore, it ought to be exponentially smarter than any one political pundit An expert or knowledgeable person. From "pandit" in Hindi. See guru. . That, anyway, is the theory behind the Iowa Electronic Markets The Iowa Electronic Markets, or IEM, is a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes. , a project run by the University of Iowa's business school. Just as investors can buy futures contracts on the price of pork bellies Pork Bellies The commodities underlying the majority of futures contracts trading pork livestock. Notes: A pork belly is the actual name for the cut of the hog. This cut is then used for commercial pork supplies of bacon, pork meat, etc. , political junkies can risk real money on political outcomes--such as, in the graph below, the 2004 Democratic nomination. In past elections, political futures markets have outperformed public opinion polls as predictors better than half the time. It looks like the market's crystal ball is still working, By late October, when a Washington Post/ABC News poll found Howard Dean Howard Brush Dean III (born November 17, 1948) is an American politician and physician from the U.S. state of Vermont, and currently the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, the central organ of the Democratic Party at the national level. leading Joseph Lieberman, John Kerry  Editing of this page by unregistered or newly registered users is currently disabled due to vandalism. , Wesley Clark, and Dick Gephardt by only three or four points each, Dean had already emerged as the market's clear favorite. Maybe Al Gore picked up a few easy bucks before making his endorsement? [GRAPHIC OMITTED] |
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