Influencing yield: an aggregate of individual decisions produces yield percentage. That's why predicting yield is so tough. (The Admissions Angle).

A young woman came into our office recently, and announced dramatically, "There are two places I'm not going to school: I'm not going to Chicago! And I'm not going to St. Louis!" "Why?" we asked her. "What's wrong with Chicago and St. Louis?" Chicago was just too windy, she insisted, and St. Louis was, well, St. Louis. "There are schools there which could work very well for you," we said. "Have you ever been to either place?"

"No!" she asserted, "and I'm not going to go, either!"

This kind of mindset is not unusual in a 16- or 17-year-old individual. But just imagine that we could convince the young woman to apply to a few colleges in the Midwest: Would she enroll in one of them, if she were accepted? The fact is, almost nothing would change her mind about attending a Chicago or St. Louis school--not $10,000 of merit aid, not personal phone calls, not a wonderful alumni interview. Yet her preconceived notions of geography are the kinds of quirks, nuances, and simplifications that influence so many student decisions. Add them to parental and extended family influences regarding alma maters, distance from home, physical location, safety, cost, and the many other family influence factors we so frequently mention, and you've got myriad criteria that are likely to fall through the cracks in institutional research on yield and enrollment.

Then there is the other end of the enrollment/ yield process. A young man we have been counseling recently made his college decision: a small liberal arts school in Pennsylvania. Reflecting on why he wanted to select this particular college from among several comparable options, he went right back to his initial visit. "I felt so welcomed there," he told us. "It seemed like such a warm and genuine place." That was the emotional fit; the "vibe" that so many kids talk about. And actually, there was a good deal of institutional effort behind that "vibe." It was based on a solid program fit (in this case, music courses and activities), a great tour, a good interview, and pleasant follow-up through the admissions process--follow-up that also, no doubt, helped the Pennsylvania school predict this applicant's eventual enrollment.

LOOKING AT THE FACTORS

As admissions administrators go about predicting yield (or trying to predict yield), and discussing what can influence students at each stage of the admissions process, they must be aware that, a) in most cases, students do not make this important life decision without the influence of their families and, b) in many cases, there may be "quirky" factors afoot as well.

Following are some of the factors that are affecting students' college choices right now--along with our commentary on how schools can address these factors in coming admissions cycles. They may help you in your yield predictions, but always remember: It is an aggregate of individual decisions--prey to no end of influences--that make up the yield percentage. That's why predicting yield is so difficult.

Distance. Fewer than 10 percent of students attend college more than 500 miles from home, and fewer than 20 percent more than 100 miles away. Most families continue to prefer a college "within driving distance"--say, four to five hours away at most. This is especially true in this economic and international security climate.

Size. The "Mama Bears" (universities that are neither too big nor too small, neither too urban nor too rural, with approximately 3,000 to 7,000 students) are looking very good right now. Much smaller than that, and students get concerned about diversity (a lack thereof), isolation (especially in a rural location), and lack of academic and social opportunities (because of fewer majors and programs). Much larger, and students worry about diversity ("too much diversity" for some, as well as problems finding their niche), isolation (alienation in a larger environment), and lack of academic and social opportunities (trouble registering for classes and connecting with faculty). Schools in every category, therefore, need to proactively address concerns and sell strengths (for example, small class size for small schools; plentiful social and academic offerings for large schools).

Academic program. Our research shows that if students are able to pursue the program they want in college, they are generally much happier about their institution. Making it easy for students to find out about academic opportunities early in their college search process will help them determine if they will find the right resources at your school And remember: These days, students are already considering preparation for graduate school, so making statistics available on career, graduate assistance, and post-graduate destinations is helpful, as well

Teaching. Rightly or wrongly, teaching assistants are taboo, and most families will, at best, barely tolerate too many graduate students in the classroom. (Certainly, no one comes to us saying, "I hope I get to work with a lot of TAs in my classes!") If you don't have them, or too many of them, and most of your classes are taught by full-time faculty, emphasize that strength. If you do have lots of TAs, discuss how they are trained and supervised, and what percentage of classes they teach. Please include discussion/ recitation sections. Focus on such special programmatic opportunities as honors and undergraduate research programs to illustrate the strengths of a graduate research institution.

Safety. Don't underestimate the importance of students feeling safe and secure on campus, and parents knowing they are leaving their children in a safe environment. Be open about the frequency and types of crime, crime prevention, security, and violence awareness programs.

Social life. Substance abuse, binge drinking, eating disorders, and mental health issues are serious concerns for families. Most are aware of continuing incidents involving alcohol, sexual assault, suicide, and other serious problems. Addressing these issues up front can assuage families' fears, and educate them about how to interact with the college once a student is enrolled.

Cost. As the economy and the stock market have softened, and tuition, room and board, and fees have increased, families have become more aware of the real price of attendance, the painful aftereffects of a huge loan burden, and the discrepancies between college aid packages. Help families by letting them know about your aid program, and the availability of financial services advisers to work with them in the first year and beyond. Additionally, discuss travel costs, work-study expectations, and general cost of living, and let families know about any supplementary aid to cover travel to and from home. Merit-based aid can affect school choice, though (as we repeatedly acknowledge) it may have unintended consequences on perceptions of school quality and the availability of need-based aid for other qualified students.

Rankings. We are in an era of consumerism, and students and parents are shopping for the best college options. Do rankings matter? Yes and no. We do get questions from parents and students about the comparable ratings or rankings of colleges and universities that have made offers of admission. And, yes, it is difficult for students to pick a school that is significantly less prestigious or lower-ranked than another option. We are usually able to reassure families about the lack of differentiation between a 10th-ranked and 17th-ranked school in the same category, but arguing that a student will receive the same educational opportunities at a third-tier school as at a first-tier school is more difficult. The greater the discrepancy, the likelier that families will rely upon institutional reputation, based on some more or less reliable quantifiable indicator. Parents want to know they are getting value for their money, and that they are providing the best opportunities possible for their children. Students want to go to a school whose name is known among friends, family, and potential employers. It is hard to avoid this dynamic, but discussing the important qualities of the educational process and the particular strengths of your institution can't hurt.

Current peers and parents. Good communication with families presently involved with a particular institution can have long-term consequences for retention and reputation, and thus yield. Parents of currently enrolled students certainly can and do influence prospective parents, as students presently attending affect the views of their prospective peers. Making sure that families currently involved in the college feet cared about and know about institutional successes and developments can help them to reflect positively on their experiences when asked about them by friends and acquaintances.

Communication. Colleges have a great deal of control over this variable, which involves contact with families in the form of admission tours, interviews with students, Web sites, viewbooks, letters, personal notes, and calls. Train your tour guides well, and monitor their progress. A bad tour guide is seldom forgotten; a good one creates untold rewards for your school Though interviewing is scarce nowadays, buck the trend. Conduct interviews with as many students as possible; these face-to-face meetings are another opportunity for positive and professional (as in effective admissions staff training) contacts with students. Web sites truly are the most important source of information for active and inquisitive students. Keep them current, accessible, replete with useful material, and serious. Personal notes (and sometimes, personal calls) can have a very positive impact on students and parents at key times in the admission process. Students can learn more about your real interest in them as a candidate and admitted student, and you can gather some feedback on their likelihood of enrolling. Humanizing and personalizing the admission process will dramatically increase your college's chances of enrolling attractive students, and--along with the effective handling of the other variable factors we've looked at here--help you predict (and influence) a healthier yield.

Howard Greene and Matthew Greene, independent education consultants (www.greenesquide.com), are the authors of the Greenes' Guides to Educational Planning.