IndyMac Provides Update on First Quarter Mortgage Loan Production.PASADENA, Calif. -- IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange :NDE NDE Nondestructive Examination NDE No Diplomatic Exchange (US Department of State) NDE Near Death Experience NDE Nondestructive Evaluation (ultrasound material evaluation) ) ("Indymac([R])" or the "Company"), the holding company for IndyMac Bank Indymac Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE: IMB) (Indymac®) is the holding company for Indymac Bank, F.S.B. (Indymac Bank®), the largest savings and loan in Los Angeles and the 7th largest mortgage originator in the nation. ,F.S.B. ("Indymac Bank([R])"), is providing this update to give investors a detailed view of the Company's mortgage loan production for the first quarter of 2007. Total loan production for the first quarter was $25.9 billion, down 2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006 but up 27 percent from the first quarter of 2006. The attached schedules give details on Indymac's mortgage loan production regarding:
1. Loan production by documentation type (i.e. the extent to which
income, assets, employment, credit history and appraised value are
documented and verified) plus additional detail by various other
loan attributes including combined loan-to-value ratio ("CLTV"),
FICO score, occupancy status, existence of mortgage insurance and
eligibility for sale to the GSEs.
2. Expected lifetime loss percentages for our mortgage loan production
as per Standard and Poor's LEVELS(R) model1, both in the
aggregate and by documentation type and other loan attributes.
3. The type and amount of our first quarter production, and the
associated credit losses, that would have been eliminated had our
recent guideline cuts been fully implemented at the beginning of
the quarter.
Loan Production by Documentation Type With respect to loan documentation, Indymac segments its loan production into the following five types: [TABLE OMITTED] Key points to take away from the detailed schedules with respect to Indymac's first quarter production: 1. The total production had an average FICO score of 704 and an average CLTV of 74 percent. 2. Only 4 percent of total production had FICO scores less than 620. Of that 4 percent, 76 percent had CLTVs below 90 percent and 60 percent had CLTVs equal to or below 80 percent. 3. 81 percent of total production had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. Of the 19 percent of production with CLTVs greater than 80 percent, 45 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 700 and 76 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 660. 4. With respect to CLTVs by documentation type, 80 percent of Types 2, 3 and 4 had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. 97 percent of Type 4 and 5 loans had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. 5. With respect to FICO scores by documentation type, 82 percent of Types 2, 3 and 4 had FICOs of greater than or equal to 660, and only 2 percent had FICOs below 620. Virtually no Type 3 and 4 loans had FICOs below 620. 6. With respect to occupancy status, 88 percent of total production was owner occupied as a primary residence and 3 percent was owner occupied as a second home. 91 percent of second home and investor properties had CLTVs of less than or equal to 80 percent. Of the 9 percent of production for investor properties, 63 percent had FICOs greater than or equal to 700 and one percent had FICOs below 620. Expected Lifetime Loss Percentages One of the most independent and comprehensive views of the credit quality of loan production is the estimated lifetime loss percentage as determined by Standard and Poor's Noun 1. Standard and Poor's - a broadly based stock market index Standard and Poor's Index LEVELS model. This model is an objective, third party framework that has been developed and tested over various economic cycles. LEVELS is a regression-based model that determines an estimated lifetime loss at the loan level based upon foreclosure foreclosure Legal proceeding by which a borrower's rights to a mortgaged property may be extinguished if the borrower fails to live up to the obligations agreed to in the loan contract. frequency and loss severity for a wide variety of mortgage loans. LEVELS is one of two accepted loss models for loan securitizations in the mortgage industry and is used to structure mortgage backed securities for sale into the secondary market. The number one driver of the model (i.e., the attribute proven to be the most predictive of loan losses) is the LTV/CLTV ratios, followed by borrower FICO score FICO Score A standard credit score which makes up a substantial portion of a credit report that credit bureaus sell to lenders so they can asses an applicant's credit risk and whether to extend them credit. and then numerous other attributes such as loan size, documentation type, occupancy status, loan purpose, geography and debt-to-income ratio The examples and perspective in this article or section may not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please [ improve this article] or discuss the issue on the talk page. , where income is provided. During the first quarter, 84 percent of Indymac's loan production was analyzed an·a·lyze tr.v. an·a·lyzed, an·a·lyz·ing, an·a·lyz·es 1. To examine methodically by separating into parts and studying their interrelations. 2. Chemistry To make a chemical analysis of. 3. using the LEVELS model.2 The estimated lifetime loss rate for this production, in the aggregate, was 0.85 percent in Q1-07 versus 0.84 percent in Q4-06 and 0.74 percent in Q1-06. The year-over-year increase was driven by increased volumes and deteriorating de·te·ri·o·rate v. de·te·ri·o·rat·ed, de·te·ri·o·rat·ing, de·te·ri·o·rates v.tr. To diminish or impair in quality, character, or value: credit performance mainly in two products - higher LTV LTV See: Loan-to-value ratio subprime loans Subprime Loan A loan that is offered at a rate above prime to individuals who do not qualify for prime rate loans. Notes: Subprime loans tend to have a rate that is 0.1% to 0.6% higher than the prime rate. and 80/20 piggyback piggyback 1. A broker trading in his or her personal account after trading in the same security for a customer. The broker may believe the customer has access to privileged information that will cause the transaction to be profitable. 2. loans - which we have substantially eliminated from our product offerings through recent guideline guideline Medtalk A series of recommendations by a body of experts in a particular discipline. See Cancer screening guidelines, Cardiac profile guidelines, Gatekeeper guidelines, Harvard guidelines, Transfusion guidelines. cutbacks. Loss rates for other production remained roughly the same year-over-year. It is important to put the estimated lifetime loss rates into context. Assuming a 35 percent average loss severity rate when the sale of a foreclosed property takes place, an 0.85 percent estimated lifetime loss rate would mean that an estimated 2.43 percent of all loans produced would end up in foreclosure over the life of a loan pool (0.85 percent divided by 35 percent equals 2.43 percent). The flip side Flip side In the context of general equities, opposite side to a proposition or position (buy, if sell is the proposition and vice versa). of this is that 97.57 percent of all of these loans are forecasted to succeed and never end up in foreclosure. Key points to take away from the detailed schedules with respect to how loan attributes impacted lifetime loss estimates for Indymac's Q1-07 production that was run through LEVELS: 1. 53 percent of this production had a LEVELS loss rate of less than 0.48 percent and is therefore considered comparable from a risk perspective to loans sold to the GSEs. 2. Lower documentation requirements on loans are more than offset by other compensating factors, such as lower CLTVs and higher FICOs, with the result that lower documentation loans actually have lower estimated lifetime losses: [TABLE OMITTED] 3. CLTVs have the strongest impact on loss rates: [TABLE OMITTED] 4. Borrower FICO scores have a strong impact on expected lifetime losses: [TABLE OMITTED] Impact of Recent Guideline Cuts Indymac has recently been cutting back its product and underwriting Underwriting 1. The process by which investment bankers raise investment capital from investors on behalf of corporations and governments that are issuing securities (both equity and debt). 2. The process of issuing insurance policies. guidelines guidelines, n.pl a set of standards, criteria, or specifications to be used or followed in the performance of certain tasks. for two reasons: 1) to better align align ( v to move the teeth into their proper positions to conform to the line of occlusion. risks and returns in the current environment and 2) due to temporary poor liquidity in the secondary market on certain products. The attached schedules show what the impact of these cutbacks would have been on our overall production for the first quarter. Had the cutbacks been fully in place for the quarter, our overall production would have been reduced by $8.6 billion, or a 33 percent reduction. Going forward, we do not expect actual production to decline by this magnitude, as some of the displaced displaced see displacement. production will migrate to other Indymac loan products for which the borrowers qualify, such as FHA/VA loans and our new 100 percent financing program (with mortgage insurance) for first time homebuyers that is saleable sale·a·ble adj. Variant of salable. saleable or US salable Adjective fit for selling or capable of being sold saleability or US to the GSEs. In addition, we continue to capture market share for other loan types, as many other lenders are struggling or exiting the business. Finally, we are constantly evaluating the impact of our guideline cuts, and, to the extent that we determine we have gone too far, or liquidity improves in the secondary market, we may revise guidelines in some areas in the future. The impact on credit quality of the guideline cuts would have been as follows: 1. The average FICO score for all production would have increased from 704 to 711, and the average CLTV would have decreased from 74 percent to 69 percent. 2. $3.5 billion of production with CLTVs greater than 80 percent would have been eliminated, or 74 percent of that production. The percentage of total production with CLTVs less than or equal to 80 percent would have increased from 81 percent to 92 percent. 3. $2.0 billion of production with FICOs below 660 would have been eliminated, or 44 percent of that production. The percentage of total production with FICOs greater than 660 would have increased from 81 percent to 84 percent. 4. The percentage of all production with both CLTVs less than 90 percent and FICOs above 660 would have increased from 68 percent to 80 percent. 5. $7.0 billion of documentation types 2, 3 and 4 production would have been eliminated, or 38 percent of that production. 6. The percentage of total production with a LEVELS loss rate of less than 0.48 percent, and therefore considered comparable from a risk perspective to loans sold to the GSEs, would have increased from 53 percent to 68 percent of total production. 7. The estimated lifetime loss rate as per the LEVELS model would have decreased from 0.85 percent to 0.52 percent, in essence reducing Indymac's overall credit risk by 39 percent. As expected and previously forecasted, net credit losses related to loans held for sale increased to $24.1 million during the first quarter from $17.7 million in Q4-06, or to 9.8 bps of loan sales from 7.6 bps. However, 80 percent of these losses, or $19.3 million, would have been prevented with the guideline cuts. As previously disclosed, we expect credit losses to remain high in the second quarter but anticipate that credit loss performance will improve during the second half of 2007 as the guideline cuts take full effect. Re-Affirmed Q1-07 Earnings Guidance Indymac provided this supplemental information in advance of our scheduled conference call next week in response to current market conditions and continued interest from stakeholders Stakeholders All parties that have an interest, financial or otherwise, in a firm-stockholders, creditors, bondholders, employees, customers, management, the community, and the government. . We have previously guided that for the first quarter of 2007 Indymac would earn around a 10 percent return on shareholders' equity Shareholders' Equity A firms' total assets minus its total liabilities. Equivalently, it is share capital plus retained earnings minus treasury shares. Shareholders' equity is the amount by which a company is financed through common and preferred shares. (ROE A fictitious surname used for an unknown or anonymous person or for a hypothetical person in an illustration. A lawsuit is generally named for the persons who are parties to it. ), and we expect that our Q1-07 earnings will be in line with this guidance when we report next Thursday, April 26th. Michael W. Perry Michael W. Perry is the co-host, along with Larry Price, of the conservative Perry & Price show on KSSK-FM in Honolulu, Hawaii. He also hosts the Hawaiian Moving Company television newsmagazine on KGMB in Honolulu. , Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will host the Company's first quarter earnings conference call and webcast beginning at 10:00 a.m. PDT PDT abbr. Pacific Daylight Time PDT Pacific Daylight Time PDT n abbr (US) (= Pacific Daylight Time) → hora de verano del Pacífico PDT , followed by a question and answer period. The earnings data is scheduled to be released before the market opens on that morning. The presentations accompanying the Shareholder Meeting webcast, and the first quarter earnings conference call and webcast, can be accessed, along with Indymac's 10-Q, via Indymac Bank's home page at www.indymacbank.com. If you would like to participate in the call: * Internet webcast access will be available at: http://www.indymacbank.com * The telephone dial-in number is (888) 396-7846 or (706) 758-0230 (international), access code #3829781; and * The replay number is (800) 642-1687 or (706) 645-9291 (international), access code #3829781 To participate on the call, please dial in 15 minutes prior to the scheduled start time. The conference call will be replayed continuously beginning two hours after the live event on April 26th, through midnight on May 2nd and will be available on Indymac's Website at www.indymacbank.com.
Appendix Contents:
Appendix A Actual Mortgage Loan Production Stratification
Table 1 Loan documentation type vs. loan to value
Table 2 Loan documentation type vs. FICO
Table 3 FICO vs. loan to value
Table 4 Occupancy vs. loan to value
Table 5 Occupancy vs. FICO
Table 6 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. loan to value
Table 7 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. FICO
Appendix B Proforma Loan Production Had the Guideline Cuts
Occurred Jan. 1, 2007
Table 1 Loan documentation type vs. loan to value
Table 2 Loan documentation type vs. FICO
Table 3 FICO vs. loan to value
Table 4 Occupancy vs. loan to value
Table 5 Occupancy vs. FICO
Table 6 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. loan to value
Table 7 Loans with mortgage insurance vs. FICO
Appendix C Actual Standard Consumer Loan Production by S&P
Loss Level Stratification
Table 1 Loan documentation type
Table 2 FICO
Table 3 Occupancy
Table 4 GSE eligibility
Table 5 Loan to value
Table 6 Reconciliation from total production to total
S&P production
Appendix D Proforma Loan Production by S&P Loss Level
Stratification Had Guideline Cuts Occurred
Jan. 1, 2007
Table 1 Loan documentation type
Table 2 FICO
Table 3 Occupancy
Table 4 GSE eligibility
Table 5 Loan to value
About Indymac Bank IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NDE) (Indymac([R])) is the holding company for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. (Indymac Bank([R])), the 7th largest savings and loan savings and loan n. a banking and lending institution, chartered either by a state or the Federal government. Savings and loans only make loans secured by real property from deposits, upon which they pay interest slightly higher than that paid by most banks. and the 2nd largest independent mortgage lender in the nation. Indymac Bank, operating as a hybrid thrift/mortgage banker, provides cost-efficient financing for the acquisition, development, and improvement of single-family homes. Indymac also provides financing secured by single-family homes and other banking products to facilitate consumers' personal financial goals. With an increased focus on building customer relationships and a valuable consumer franchise, Indymac is committed to becoming a top five mortgage lender in the U.S. by 2011, with a long-term goal of providing returns on equity of 15 percent or greater. The company is dedicated to continually raising expectations and conducting itself with the highest level of ethics ethics, in philosophy, the study and evaluation of human conduct in the light of moral principles. Moral principles may be viewed either as the standard of conduct that individuals have constructed for themselves or as the body of obligations and duties that a . For more information about Indymac and its affiliates, or to subscribe to Verb 1. subscribe to - receive or obtain regularly; "We take the Times every day" subscribe, take buy, purchase - obtain by purchase; acquire by means of a financial transaction; "The family purchased a new car"; "The conglomerate acquired a new company"; the company's Email Alert feature for notification of company news and events, please visit http://about.indymacbank.com/investors. Certain statements contained in this press release may be deemed to be forward-looking statements forward-looking statement A projected financial statement based on management expectations. A forward-looking statement involves risks with regard to the accuracy of assumptions underlying the projections. within the meaning of the federal securities laws. The words "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "project," "plan," "forecast," "intend," "goal," "target," and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which cannot be predicted or quantified. Actual results and the timing of certain events could differ materially from those projected in or contemplated by the forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including, the effect of economic and market conditions including industry volumes and margins; the level and volatility of interest rates; the Company's hedging strategies, hedge effectiveness and asset and liability management; the accuracy of subjective estimates used in determining the fair value of financial assets Financial assets Claims on real assets. of Indymac; the credit risks with respect to our loans and other financial assets; the actions undertaken by both current and potential new competitors; the availability of funds from Indymac's lenders and from loan sales and securitizations, to fund mortgage loan originations The examples and perspective in this article or section may not represent a worldwide view of the subject. Please [ improve this article] or discuss the issue on the talk page. and portfolio investments; the execution of Indymac's growth plans and ability to gain market share in a significant market transition; the impact of disruptions triggered by natural disasters; pending or future legislation, regulations or litigation An action brought in court to enforce a particular right. The act or process of bringing a lawsuit in and of itself; a judicial contest; any dispute. When a person begins a civil lawsuit, the person enters into a process called litigation. ; and other risk factors described in the reports that Indymac files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K Form 10-K A report required by the SEC from exchange-listed companies that provides for annual disclosure of certain financial information. Form 10-K See 10-K. , Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q Form 10-Q See 10-Q. , and its reports on Form 8-K Form 8-K The form required by the SEC when a publicly held company incurs any event that might affect its financial situation or the share value of its stock. Form 8-K See 8-K. . 1 While Indymac's production is evaluated using the LEVELS model, this data is not audited or endorsed by Standard and Poor's. 2 Production evaluated by the LEVELS[R] model excludes second liens A Second lien financing is a form of financing secured on a second ranking basis by (more or less) the same security, which secures the first ranking financing. The first lien lenders and the second lien lenders agree that, in the event of a security enforcement or bankruptcy, the , HELOCs, reverse mortgages or construction loans. 3 The high loss rates for the >80% <90% and eN90% en 95% buckets appear to have been heavily influenced by their average FICO scores of 666 and 673, respectively, as compared to an average FICO score of 704 for the eN70% en 80% bucket and 705 for the >95% en 100% bucket. |
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