Indicators.
Latin America and the Caribbean
GDP Industrial production
% change on year ago % change on year ago
LT Consensus
Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F latest
Argentina 11.2 Q1 '04 8.7 7.4 3.8 11.3 May '04
Brazil 2.7 Q1 '04 -0.2 3.8 3.5 7.8 May '04
Chile 4.8 Q1 '04 3.3 5.0 4.8 4.5 May '04
Colombia 3.8 Q1 '04 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5 May '04
Ecuador 3.4 Q1 '04 2.7 4.8 4.0 -9.0 May '04
Mexico 3.7 Q1 '04 1.3 4.1 3.6 2.1 May '04
Peru 4.6 Q1 '04 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.2 May '04
Venezuela 29.8 Q1 '04 -9.2 10.5 3.3 -- --
Unemployment
% rate Producer prices Consumer prices
% change on year ago
LT Consensus
Forecast *
latest latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 14.4 Q1 '04 8.5 May '04 3.7 7.5 8.4
Brazil 12.2 May '04 (+) 8.8 May '04 9.3 7.1 5.6
Chile 9.6 Apr-Jun '04 4.2 May '04 1.1 2.4 3.0
Colombia 13.6 May '04 5.3 May '04 6.5 6.1 5.4
Ecuador 11.5 May '04 18.0 May '04 6.1 3.7 3.3
Mexico 3.5 May '04 (+) 9.5 May '04 4.0 4.1 3.8
Peru 9.1 May '04 5.4 May '04 2.5 3.0 2.6
Venezuela 14.1 Dec '03 30.9 May '04 27.1 27.0 24.3
Exchange rates Current account
end of period per US$ as % of GDP
LT Consensus LT Consensus
Forecast * Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 2.91 2.95 3.04 6.3 4.0 1.6
Brazil 2.89 3.13 3.29 0.8 0.7 -0.1
Chile 599 621 630 -0.8 1.3 0.5
Colombia 2,778 2,781 2.949 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.6 0.5 0.0
Mexico 11.24 11.48 11.80 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2
Peru 3.46 3.50 3.56 -1.7 -1.2 -1.2
Venezuela 1,598 2,096 2,657 11.2 10.4 8.6
International reserves
US$ billions
LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 14.2 17.6 17.9
Brazil 49.1 50.6 49.9
Chile 15.8 16.6 17.1
Colombia 10.8 11.5 11.7
Ecuador 1.2 1.4 1.7
Mexico 57.4 60.3 60.6
Peru 10.2 10.7 10.9
Venezuela 21.0 23.6 26.3
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, Bear
Stearns, CS First Boston, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan
Stanley, Santander Central Hispano Investment, Salomon Smith Barney,
UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
(+) open unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Consumer prices Interest rates
% change on year ago % per year
latest year ago deposit lending
Argentina 4.3 May '04 14.3 2.45 6.33 May '04
Bolivia 4.4 May '04 3.1 7.08 10.84 May '04
Brazil 5.2 May '04 17.2 15.09 54.80 May '04
Chile 0.6 May '04 3.5 1.69 5.16 May '04
Colombia 5.4 May '04 7.7 7.81 15.16 May '04
Costa Rica 11.4 May '04 10.2 9.50 23.17 May '04
Dominican Rep. 65.3 May '04 20.1 22.69 32.93 May '04
Ecuador 3.0 May '04 8.3 4.01 9.79 May '04
El Salvador 4.8 May '04 1.9 3.47 6.05 May '04
Guatemala 7.1 May '04 5.5 4.19 13.93 May '04
Honduras 7.9 May '04 8.1 11.22 20.17 Apr '04
Jamaica 16.8 May '04 6.2 8.04 17.59 May '04
Mexico 4.3 May '04 4.7 2.67 7.05 May '04
Panama 1.7 May '04 1.8 2.25 8.87 Apr '04
Paraguay 3.1 May '04 19.6 4.49 35.90 May '04
Peru 3.2 May '04 2.4 2.90 14.50 May '04
Trinidad & Tobago 3.0 Dec '03 4.3 2.30 9.50 Mar '04
Uruguay 9.4 May '04 26.6 -- -- --
Venezuela 23.1 Apr '04 33.5 12.84 17.67 May '04
Exchange rates
August 3rd, 2004
currency per US$ per euro
Argentina Peso 2.94 3.54
Bolivia Boliviano 7.71 9.28
Brazil Real 3.05 3.66
Chile Peso 625.72 752.68
Colombia Peso 2,556 3,075
Costa Rica Colon 431.39 518.92
Dominican Rep. Peso 43.03 51.77
Ecuador Sucre 1.00 30,073
El Salvador Colon 8.75 10.52
Guatemala Quetzal 7.72 9.29
Honduras Lempira 17.76 21.36
Jamaica Dollar 55.00 66.16
Mexico Peso 11.38 13.69
Panama Balboa 1.00 1.20
Paraguay Guam 5,817 6,997
Peru Sol 3.30 3.97
Trinidad & Tobago Dollar 6.22 7.48
Uruguay Peso 29.44 35.41
Venezuela Bolivar 19.16 2,305
Exports of goods
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 3,350 May '04 31,253
Bolivia 190 May '04 1,864
Brazil 7,941 May '04 79,935
Chile 2,756 May '04 24,980
Colombia 1,312 May '04 13,424
Costa Rica 550 May '04 6,096
Dominican Rep. 1,335 Q1 '04 5,531
Ecuador 632 May '04 6,452
El Salvador 269 May '04 2,997
Guatemala 389 Apr '04 4,595
Honduras 145 May '04 1,418
Jamaica 308 Q3 '03 1,088
Mexico 16,095 May '04 173,214
Panama 1,220 Q1 '04 5,192
Paraguay 161 May '04 1,472
Peru 976 May '04 10,105
Trinidad & Tobago 1,345 Q3 '03 4,552
Uruguay 277 May '04 2,494
Venezuela 8,236 Q1 '04 29,667
Imports of goods International reserves
US$ millions ([dagger])
US$ millions
trail-
ing 12 year
latest months latest ago
Argentina 1,779 May '04 17,165 16,181 May '04 11,386
Bolivia 124 Apr '04 1,648 562 May '04 521
Brazil 4,823 May '04 51,913 50,364 May '04 43,213
Chile 1,929 May '04 20,732 16,128 May '04 15,857
Colombia 1,365 May '04 14,614 11,238 May '04 10,444
Costa Rica 687 May '04 7,821 1,721 May '04 1,594
Dominican Rep. 1,707 Q1 '04 7,711 397 May '04 500
Ecuador 572 May '04 6,797 901 May '04 785
El Salvador 538 May '04 5,764 1,855 May '04 1,708
Guatemala 795 Apr '04 8,466 2,837 May '04 2,363
Honduras 309 May '04 3,549 1,544 May '04 1,413
Jamaica 869 Q3 '03 3,299 1,751 May '04 1,278
Mexico 16,062 May '04 178,520 60,277 May '04 55,691
Panama 1,344 Q1 '04 6.079 848 May '04 1,264
Paraguay 210 May '04 2,136 1,079 May '04 755
Peru 758 May '04 8,601 10,400 May '04 9,979
Trinidad & Tobago 914 Q3 '03 3,648 2,536 Apr '04 2,024
Uruguay 279 May '04 2,543 2,356 May '04 1,046
Venezuela 3,338 Q1 '04 11,823 18,905 May '04 11,859
([dagger]) Excluding gold IMF, definition
SORUCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
Rest of the World
GDP
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Belgium 1.9 Q1 '04 1.1 1.5 1.9
Canada 1.6 Q1 '04 1.7 2.7 2.9
China 9.8 Q1 '04 -- -- --
France 1.7 Q1 '04 0.2 1.8 2.3
Germany 1.5 Q1 '04 -0.1 1.6 1.8
Hong Kong 6.8 Q1 '04 9.1 8.7 8.0
India 8.2 Q1 '04 8.1 7.3 7.5
Italy 0.8 Q1 '04 0.4 1.2 1.6
Japan 5.4 Q1 '04 2.7 2.8 1.3
Korea 5.3 Q1 '04 2.7 5.4 5.4
Netherlands 0.8 Q1 '04 -0.8 1.1 2.0
Russia 8.0 Q1 '04 7.3 4.9 4.5
Spain 2.9 Q1 '04 2.3 3.0 3.2
Switzerland 1.5 Q1 '04 -0.5 1.7 1.9
United Kingdom 3.0 Q1 '04 2.3 2.6 2.1
United States 3.9 Q1 '04 3.1 4.4 3.1
Consumer prices
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Belgium 2.6 May '04 1.6 1.2 1.3
Canada 2.5 May '04 2.8 1.8 2.3
China 3.8 Apr '04 -- -- --
France 2.6 May '04 2.1 1.5 1.7
Germany 2.0 May '04 1.1 0.7 1.0
Hong Kong -0.9 May '04 -2.6 -0.5 0.5
India 3.5 May '04 3.8 4.4 6.0
Italy 2.3 May '04 2.7 1.9 1.9
Japan -0.5 May '04 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
Korea 3.3 May '04 3.5 2.7 2.4
Netherlands 1.5 May '04 2.1 1.7 1.8
Russia 10.2 Apr '04 13.6 10.1 9.2
Spain 3.4 May '04 3.0 2.3 2.5
Switzerland 1.0 May '04 0.6 0.1 0.5
United Kingdom 2.8 May '04 1.4 1.3 1.7
United States 3.1 May '04 2.3 1.5 2.6
Interest rates Exchange rates
% per year August 3rd, 2004
Lending per US$ per euro
Belgium 6.70 May '04 0.83 --
Canada 3.75 May '04 1.33 1.60
China 5.31 May '04 8.27 9.94
France 6.60 May '04 0.83 --
Germany 2.02 May '04 ([double dagger]) 0.83 --
Hong Kong 5.00 May '04 7.80 9.38
India 11.00 May '04 46.23 55.60
Italy 2.08 May '04 ([double dagger]) 0.83 --
Japan 1.78 May '04 110.67 133.15
Korea 6.00 May '04 1,164 1,401
Netherlands 2.75 May '04 0.83 --
Russia 12.80 May '04 29.13 35.04
Spain 2.01 May '04 ([double dagger]) 0.83 --
Switzerland 3.19 May '04 1.28 1.54
United Kingdom 4.25 May '04 0.55 0.66
United States 4.00 May '04 -- 1.20
International reserves ([dagger]) Unemployment rate
US$ billions % rate
latest year ago latest
Belgium 10.8 May '04 10.6 12.3 May '04
Canada 35.9 May '04 37.3 7.3 May '04
China 463.1 May '04 345.0 -- --
France 29.0 May '04 28.6 9.8 May '04
Germany 49.8 May '04 52.8 11.2 May '04
Hong Kong 120.0 May '04 116.1 6.9 Apr '04
India 115.4 May '04 79.5 -- --
Italy 30.8 May '04 32.6 8.7 Q1 '04
Japan 807.2 May '04 534.2 4.8 May '04
Korea 166.5 May '04 128.3 3.3 May '04
Netherlands 10.4 May '04 10.2 4.4 May '04
Russia 81.8 May '04 61.1 -- --
Spain 13.3 May '04 31.2 10.9 Q2 '04
Switzerland 48.7 May '04 41.4 3.8 May '04
United Kingdom 41.6 May '04 38.0 2.8 May '04
United States 71.8 May '04 71.2 5.3 May '04
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition.
([double dagger]) Money market rate.
SOURCE: EIU, IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
COPYRIGHT 2004 Freedom Magazines, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
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