Indicators.
Latin America and the Caribbean
GDP Industrial production
% change on year ago % change on year ago
LP Consensus Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F latest
Argentina 11.3 Q4 8.3 6.4 3.4 12.2 Jan '04
Brazil -0.1 Q4 -0.2 3.7 3.6 1.7 Jan '04
Chile 3.3 Q4 3.3 4.8 4.9 1.8 Jan '04
Colombia 4.2 Q4 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.9 Dec '03
Ecuador 2.7 Q3 2.4 4.3 3.1 2.4 Jan '04
Mexico 20.0 Q4 1.3 3.2 3.4 0.8 Jan '04
Peru 2.8 Q4 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 Jan '04
Venezuela 9.0 Q4 -9.2 8.6 4.3 -- --
Unemployment
% rate
latest
Argentina 14.5 Q4 '03
Brazil 11.7 Jan '04 (+)
Chile 7.4 Dec '03/ Feb '04
Colombia 17.0 Jan '04
Ecuador 11.4 Jan '04
Mexico 3.8 Jan '04 (+)
Peru 11.1 Jan '04
Venezuela 14.1 Dec '03
Producer prices Consumer prices
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 1.2 Jan '04 3.7 7.2 8.0
Brazil 4.5 Jan '04 9.3 6.2 5.2
Chile -4.9 Jan '04 1.1 1.8 2.9
Colombia 5.3 Jan '04 6.5 5.8 5.4
Ecuador 1.5 Jan '04 6.1 4.6 3.5
Mexico 6.1 Jan '04 4.0 4.0 3.7
Peru 2.7 Jan '04 2.5 2.5 2.5
Venezuela 28.4 Jan '04 27.1 35.1 23.5
Exchange rates Current account
end of period per US$ as % of GDP
LT Consensus Forecast * LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 2.91 2.91 3.02 6.7 5.2 3.7
Brazil 2.89 3.07 3.24 0.8 -0.4 -1.1
Chile 601 598 611 -0.7 -0.1 -1.5
Colombia 2,779 2.861 3,048 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8
Mexico 11.22 11.39 11.74 -1.5 -2.2 -2.6
Peru 3.46 3.51 3.57 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6
Venezuela 1,598 2,380 2,810 11.8 8.6 7.3
International reserves
US$ billion
LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 13.7 17.5 19.4
Brazil 49.3 52.5 51.8
Chile 15.9 16.2 16.6
Colombia 10.7 11.1 11.3
Ecuador 1.2 1.5 1.7
Mexico 56.5 58.8 59.3
Peru 10.1 10.8 11.3
Venezuela 21.0 21.9 22.5
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, Goldman
Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central Hispano
Investment, Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE (+) open
unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Producer prices Consumer prices
% change on year ago
LT Consensus Forecast *
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 1.2 Jan '04 3.7 7.2 8.0
Brazil 4.5 Jan '04 9.3 6.2 5.2
Chile -4.9 Jan '04 1.1 1.8 2.9
Colombia 5.3 Jan '04 6.5 5.8 5.4
Ecuador 1.5 Jan '04 6.1 4.6 3.5
Mexico 6.1 Jan '04 4.0 4.0 3.7
Peru 2.7 Jan '04 2.5 2.5 2.5
Venezuela 28.4 Jan '04 27.1 35.1 23.5
Exchange rates Current account
end of period per US$ as % of GDP
LT Consensus Forecast * LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 2.91 2.91 3.02 6.7 5.2 3.7
Brazil 2.89 3.07 3.24 0.8 -0.4 -1.1
Chile 601 598 611 -0.7 -0.1 -1.5
Colombia 2,779 2.861 3,048 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2
Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8
Mexico 11.22 11.39 11.74 -1.5 -2.2 -2.6
Peru 3.46 3.51 3.57 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6
Venezuela 1,598 2,380 2,810 11.8 8.6 7.3
International reserves
US$ billion
LT Consensus Forecast *
2003 2004F 2005F
Argentina 13.7 17.5 19.4
Brazil 49.3 52.5 51.8
Chile 15.9 16.2 16.6
Colombia 10.7 11.1 11.3
Ecuador 1.2 1.5 1.7
Mexico 56.5 58.8 59.3
Peru 10.1 10.8 11.3
Venezuela 21.0 21.9 22.5
* LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, Goldman
Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central Hispano
Investment, Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE (+) open
unemployment (economically active, seeking work)
Consumer prices
% change on year ago
latest year ago
Argentina 2.7 Jan '04 39.6
Bolivia 4.2 Jan '04 2.9
Brazil 7.7 Jan '04 14.5
Chile 0.8 Jan '04 3.0
Colombia 6.2 Jan '04 7.4
Costa Rica 11.0 Jan '04 9.2
Dominican Rep. 50.9 Jan '04 13.5
Ecuador 3.9 Jan '04 10.1
El Salvador 2.4 Jan '04 2.8
Guatemala 5.9 Jan '04 6.2
Honduras 6.9 Jan '04 8.7
Jamaica 14.1 Dec '03 7.3
Mexico 4.2 Jan '04 5.2
Panama 1.7 Dec '03 1.8
Paraguay 12.0 Jul '03 11.8
Peru 2.8 Jan '04 2.3
Trinidad & Tobago 3.0 Dec '03 4.3
Uruguay 10.5 Jan '04 27.2
Venezuela 26.6 Jan '04 33.8
Interest rates
% per year
deposit lending
Argentina 2.62 9.90 Jan '04
Bolivia 11.04 16.61 Jan '04
Brazil 15.12 56.60 Jan '04
Chile 2.06 5.54 Jan '04
Colombia 7.98 14.76 Jan '04
Costa Rica 9.67 23.42 Jan '04
Dominican Rep. 18.92 29.92 Jan '04
Ecuador 5.34 11.74 Jan '04
El Salvador 3.37 6.80 Jan '04
Guatemala 4.17 14.00 Jan '04
Honduras 11.21 20.24 Dec '03
Jamaica 8.44 19.18 Jan '04
Mexico 2.20 5.45 Jan '04
Panama 2.44 9.83 Dec '03
Paraguay 7.13 38.94 Jan '04
Peru 2.90 14.50 Jan '04
Trinidad & Tobago 2.59 9.50 Nov '03
Uruguay -- -- --
Venezuela 12.56 20.52 Jan '04
Exchange rates
April 8th, 2004
currency per US$ per euro
Argentina Peso 2.81 3.41
Bolivia Boliviano 7.68 9.34
Brazil Real 2.87 3.49
Chile Peso 587.15 714.50
Colombia Peso 2,601 3,166
Costa Rica Colon 418.56 509.35
Dominican Rep. Peso 42.21 51.36
Ecuador Sucre 1.00 30,423
El Salvador Colon 8.75 10.65
Guatemala Quetzal 7.84 9.54
Honduras Lempira 17.46 21.25
Jamaica Dollar 55.00 66.50
Mexico Peso 11.23 13.67
Panama Balboa 1.00 1.22
Paraguay Guarani 5,686 6,920
Peru Sol 3.34 4.06
Trinidad & Tobago Dollar 6.15 7.44
Uruguay Peso 29.70 36.14
Venezuela Bolivar 1,918 2,334
Exports of goods
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 2,279 Jan '04 29,476
Bolivia 157 Nov '03 1,622
Brazil 5,800 Jan '04 74,079
Chile 2,068 Jan '04 21,221
Colombia 1,095 Jan '04 13,020
Costa Rica 481 Jan '04 6,122
Dominican Rep. 1,413 3Q '03 5,464
Ecuador 525 Jan '04 6,095
El Salvador 254 Jan '04 3,139
Guatemala 369 Jan '04 4,464
Honduras 307 3Q '03 1,335
Jamaica 295 2Q '03 1,016
Mexico 12,680 Jan '04 165,054
Panama 221 3Q '03 798
Paraguay 486 2Q '03 --
Peru 838 Jan '04 9,099
Trinidad & Tobago 975 2Q '03 4,318
Uruguay 198 Jan '04 2,261
Venezuela 443 Dec '03 5,282
Imports of goods
US$ millions
trailing
latest 12 months
Argentina 1,599 Jan '04 14,613
Bolivia 143 Nov '03 1,612
Brazil 4,212 Jan '04 48,822
Chile 1,779 Jan '04 19,432
Colombia 1,195 Jan '04 13,877
Costa Rica 618 Jan '04 7,608
Dominican Rep. 2,070 3Q '03 8,386
Ecuador 533 Jan '04 6,447
El Salvador 452 Jan '04 5,770
Guatemala 734 Jan '04 8,159
Honduras 838 3Q '03 3,179
Jamaica 844 2Q '03 3,246
Mexico 12,873 Jan '04 170,801
Panama 780 3Q '03 3,074
Paraguay 569 2Q '03 --
Peru 698 Jan '04 8,223
Trinidad & Tobago 885 2Q '03 3,664
Uruguay 228 Jan '04 2,258
Venezuela 927 Nov '03 7,760
International reserves ([dagger])
US$ millions
latest year ago
Argentina 14,697 Jan '04 9,322
Bolivia 644 Jan '04 594
Brazil 53,084 Jan '04 38,610
Chile 16,017 Jan '04 16,423
Colombia 11,112 Jan '04 10,957
Costa Rica 1,676 Jan '04 1,688
Dominican Rep. 253 Jan '04 392
Ecuador 903 Jan '04 721
El Salvador 1,935 Jan '04 1,687
Guatemala 2,808 Jan '04 2,342
Honduras 1,373 Jan '04 1,475
Jamaica 1,195 Dec '03 1,645
Mexico 62,953 Jan '04 51,501
Panama 1,224 Jan '04 1,203
Paraguay 934 Jan '04 619
Peru 10,134 Jan '04 9,519
Trinidad & Tobago 2,451 Dec '03 2,028
Uruguay 2,130 Jan '04 679
Venezuela 16,850 Jan '04 7,565
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition
SOURCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
Rest of the World
GDP
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Belgium 1.2 Q4 1.1 1.5 1.9
Canada 1.6 Q4 1.7 2.7 2.9
China 9.9 Q4 -- -- --
France 0.6 Q4 0.2 1.8 2.3
Germany 0.2 Q4 -0.1 1.6 1.8
Hong Kong 5.0 Q4 9.1 8.7 8.0
India 10.4 Q4 8.1 7.3 7.5
Italy 0.1 Q4 0.4 1.2 1.6
Japan 3.4 Q4 2.7 2.8 1.3
Korea 3.9 Q4 2.7 5.4 5.4
Netherlands -0.5 Q4 -0.8 1.1 2.0
Russia 5.7 Q3 7.3 4.9 4.5
Spain 2.7 Q4 2.3 3.0 3.2
Switzerland 0.0 Q4 -0.5 1.7 1.9
United Kingdom 2.7 Q4 2.3 2.6 2.1
United States 4.3 Q4 3.1 4.4 3.1
Consumer prices
% change on year ago
EIU forecast
latest 2003 2004F 2005F
Belgium 1.6 Jan '04 1.6 1.2 1.3
Canada 1.2 Jan '04 2.8 1.8 2.3
China 1.8 Oct '03 -- -- --
France 2.0 Jan '04 2.1 1.5 1.7
Germany 1.2 Jan '04 1.1 0.7 1.0
Hong Kong -1.4 Jan '04 -2.6 -0.5 0.5
India 4.3 Jan '04 3.8 4.4 6.0
Italy 2.2 Jan '04 2.7 1.9 1.9
Japan -0.3 Jan '04 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
Korea 3.4 Jan '04 3.5 2.7 2.4
Netherlands 1.3 Jan '04 2.1 1.7 1.8
Russia 11.3 Jan '04 13.6 10.1 9.2
Spain 2.3 Jan '04 3.0 2.3 2.5
Switzerland 0.2 Jan '04 0.6 0.1 0.5
United Kingdom 2.8 Dec '03 1.4 1.3 1.7
United States 1.9 Jan '04 2.3 1.5 2.6
Interest rates
% per year
Lending
Belgium 6.70 Jan '04
Canada 4.25 Jan '04
China 5.31 Dec '03
France 6.60 Jan '04
Germany 2.02 Jan '04 ([double dagger])
Hong Kong 5.00 Jan '04
India 11.00 Dec '03
Italy 4.72 Jan '04
Japan 1.80 Jan '04
Korea 6.30 Jan '04
Netherlands 2.75 Jan '04
Russia 12.20 Jan '04
Spain 2.01 Jan '04 ([double dagger])
Switzerland 3.19 Jan '04
United Kingdom 3.75 Jan '04
United States 4.00 Jan '04
Exchange rates
April 8th, 2004
per US$ per euro
Belgium 0.82 --
Canada 1.31 1.59
China 8.27 9.99
France 0.82 --
Germany 0.82 --
Hong Kong 7.79 9.48
India 43.40 52.81
Italy 0.82 --
Japan 105.29 128.14
Korea 1,131 1,377
Netherlands 0.82 --
Russia 28.53 34.71
Spain 0.82 --
Switzerland 1.28 1.55
United Kingdom 0.54 0.66
United States -- 1.22
International reserves ([dagger])
US$ billions
latest year ago
Belgium 10.9 Jan'04 12.0
Canada 36.3 Jan'04 37.4
China 420.6 Jan'04 312.9
France 34.7 Jan'04 27.6
Germany 51.0 Jan'04 51.2
Hong Kong 123.6 Jan'04 115.5
India 102.1 Jan'04 70.6
Italy 30.6 Jan'04 31.8
Japan 731.4 Jan'04 469.6
Korea 157.4 Jan'04 122.8
Netherlands 10.7 Jan'04 9.9
Russia 80.2 Jan'04 45.5
Spain 17.4 Jan'04 34.1
Switzerland 49.9 Jan'04 41.1
United Kingdom 42.1 Jan'04 37.0
United States 74.2 Jan'04 67.4
Unemployment rate
% rate
latest
Belgium 12.9 Jan'04
Canada 7.9 Jan'04
China -- --
France 9.7 Dec'03
Germany 12.2 Jan'04
Hong Kong 8.5 3Q'03
India -- --
Italy 8.3 3Q'03
Japan 4.9 Jan'04
Korea 3.7 Jan'04
Netherlands 4.0 Dec'03
Russia -- --
Spain 9.3 Jan'04
Switzerland 4.1 Dec'03
United Kingdom 3.1 Jan'04
United States 6.3 Jan'04
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition.
([double dagger]) Money market rate.
SOURCE: EIU, IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
Exchange rates
April 8th, 2004
per US$ per euro
Belgium 0.82 --
Canada 1.31 1.59
China 8.27 9.99
France 0.82 --
Germany 0.82 --
Hong Kong 7.79 9.48
India 43.40 52.81
Italy 0.82 --
Japan 105.29 128.14
Korea 1,131 1,377
Netherlands 0.82 --
Russia 28.53 34.71
Spain 0.82 --
Switzerland 1.28 1.55
United Kingdom 0.54 0.66
United States -- 1.22
International reserves ([dagger])
US$ billions
latest year ago
Belgium 10.9 Jan'04 12.0
Canada 36.3 Jan'04 37.4
China 420.6 Jan'04 312.9
France 34.7 Jan'04 27.6
Germany 51.0 Jan'04 51.2
Hong Kong 123.6 Jan'04 115.5
India 102.1 Jan'04 70.6
Italy 30.6 Jan'04 31.8
Japan 731.4 Jan'04 469.6
Korea 157.4 Jan'04 122.8
Netherlands 10.7 Jan'04 9.9
Russia 80.2 Jan'04 45.5
Spain 17.4 Jan'04 34.1
Switzerland 49.9 Jan'04 41.1
United Kingdom 42.1 Jan'04 37.0
United States 74.2 Jan'04 67.4
Unemployment rate
% rate
latest
Belgium 12.9 Jan'04
Canada 7.9 Jan'04
China -- --
France 9.7 Dec'03
Germany 12.2 Jan'04
Hong Kong 8.5 3Q'03
India -- --
Italy 8.3 3Q'03
Japan 4.9 Jan'04
Korea 3.7 Jan'04
Netherlands 4.0 Dec'03
Russia -- --
Spain 9.3 Jan'04
Switzerland 4.1 Dec'03
United Kingdom 3.1 Jan'04
United States 6.3 Jan'04
([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition.
([double dagger]) Money market rate.
SOURCE: EIU, IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
COPYRIGHT 2004 Freedom Magazines, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
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