Importers face uncertainties over renewed port logjams.

Last year, the crush of holiday goods hit the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as early as May, moving up the ports' peak season by about three months.

This year, all bets are off.

Surging apparel imports from China and a general rise in port traffic are raising concerns that the ports could again jam up sooner and in bigger numbers than in previous years. Then again, traffic could keep moving if the federal government clamps down on the apparel imports as some expect.

"There's a lot of uncertainty," admitted Beth Keck, director of international corporate affairs for Wal-Mart Stores Inc., one of the biggest importers at the ports.

Hedging their bets, some importers are already taking steps to bypass the congested ports by directing traffic elsewhere, while some are even exploring sourcing materials from non-Asian countries that don't use the ports.

The peak season traditionally has spanned from August to mid-October, when retailers bring in their holiday goods. But last year, fearing congestion and port labor problems, Wal-Mart and other big box retailers ordered early and the ports were backed up by early summer.

Concern among retailers is even greater this year because the ports are projecting an overall 12 percent to 14 percent increase in container traffic, a problem exacerbated by a flood of Chinese garments that began arriving after World Trade Organization quotas were lifted Jan. 1.

Last week, the surge in apparel imports was cited by the federal government as a major contributor to a record $61-billion trade deficit in February. The trade surplus for China alone ballooned to $5.7 billion in March, up nearly 30 percent from the $4.4-billion mark the previous month.

In the first quarter of the year, Chinese textile and apparel imports were up 62 percent over the like period a year earlier, with cotton knit shirts and blouses up 1,250 percent, cotton trousers up more than 1,500 percent and underwear up 300 percent.

Those figures are cited as among the factors behind the U.S. apparel and textile industry shedding 12,200 jobs so far this year. But under terms of China's entrance into the World Trade Organization, the Commerce Department can implement safeguards that would limit imports on those items to 7.5 percent above annual growth. The process requires 30 days of public input and 60 days of review from trade experts.

Hot Kiss Inc., a Los Angeles manufacturer of teen clothing, is among importers already experiencing delays of up to a week because of the high traffic at the ports.

"I'm struggling right now," said Chief Executive Moshe Tsabag. "If things are late, (my retailers) want a discount. I deal with that every other day. And as we get into the surge of back-to-school goods at the end of May, June and July, things will be very congested."

Tsabag said he is placing orders two to three weeks earlier, despite the fact that his teen clothes are fashion sensitive. But it's unclear if the safeguards would have much of an effect, given that the apparel items at issue make up only a fraction of total port volume.

"Even if safeguards come in, it doesn't solve the port problems," said Ilse Metchek, executive director of the California Fashion Association.

Given that uncertainty, some local clothing manufacturers are looking to have their apparel sewn in countries other than China, with Mexico and Central America. That offers the benefit of shipping across the borders by truck, Metchek said.

But it's not an altogether appealing alternative, with thefts by drivers and hijackings by bandits being a significant problem. In addition, Mexico's maquiladora factories have largely shifted upward from apparel manufacturing to higher value work, such as assembling cellular phones.

There's also the question of what the Big Box stores and other retailers plan to do.

Gap Inc., which relies heavily on factories in Asia and Latin America, has developed flexible routing strategies that allow it to redirect shipments to alternate ports, said spokeswoman Amy Lund.

While Wal-Mart said it does not plan to change its sources of production, there are indications it is seeking a way around West Coast port congestion. Earlier this month, it opened a 20-acre distribution center in Oklahoma and announced plans for another distribution center in Indiana. It also will soon open a 50-acre distribution center in Chambers County, Texas, its largest in the nation, to handle goods from the Port of Houston.

"Some importers are bypassing the West Coast entirely," said Robert Kriger, president of Norman Kriger Inc., a Rancho Dominguez freight forwarder and customs brokerage, who represents apparel importers and exporters.

Ports, shippers respond

Container traffic to the Gulf Coast is expected to increase by 12 percent this year and may double by 2010, as ports along the region have increased capacity to handle the boom in Chinese imports over the last few years, according to Gulf Shipper magazine.

Shipping companies are also increasing service and capacities in other West Coast ports at a higher rate than Long Beach and Los Angeles.

"The companies are betting on the congestion, so they're laying out options for importers to expand shipping to other ports than L.A. and Long Beach," Kriger said.

Then there's a wildcard: the Pier Pass program, which would ease congestion by extending gate hours at both ports into the evenings and Saturdays.

Proponents hope the program will persuade retailers to move as much as 50 percent of their cargo during off-peak hours, using a system that charges fees for daytime moves and reimburses those fees for nighttime and weekend moves. Maritime officials say a more realistic projection is 25 percent to 30 percent. Currently, only 5 percent to 10 percent of container cargo moves during off-peak hours.

However, port officials have delayed the June 1 implementation to July 1 because of technical problems in the system to track cargo.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Maritime Association is expected to hire as many as 1,800 new casual workers by May to help move the freight at the ports, according to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union. But without the start of the Pier Pass program that might not make as much difference as it could.

"There's an inability to move the cargo at night," said David Arian, former president of ILWU Local 13 in Wilmington. "The cargo sits on the docks at night. Once it backs up, there is no more room on the docks to unload the ships and that backs up the ships."