Implications For Afghanistan's Neighbours.

Among Afghanistan's immediate neighbours - Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China - there are winners and losers. The spread of Afghan refugees through the region is only one part of the problem. Each of these countries, but some more than others, have a strategic stake in what happens in Afghanistan.

The biggest loser is Pakistan, which had invested a lot in its Afghan strategy for over 20 years. After it gained independence in 1947, the country had viewed itself as being bounded by hostile countries on its eastern and western frontiers, India and Afghanistan respectively. Afghanistan, under Zahir Shah, was the only country which refused to vote in favour of Pakistan's entry into the UN. The Durand Line, which forms the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, has not been recognised by any Afghan regime, including the Taliban. From the 1950s to the 1970s, there were demands for Pashtunistan, a state encompassing much of western Pakistan.

Thus, the anti-Soviet Jihad provided the right opportunity for Pakistan to influence events in Afghanistan. After the jihad, it supported virtually all the groups in Afghanistan at one time or another. Finally, it backed the Taliban and succeeded in establishing them over 90% of Afghan territory. But after Sept. 11, Pakistani President Gen. Musharraf has been forced to betray the Taliban and provide all the intelligence necessary to ensure its destruction. Now, even in the best-case scenario, it is likely that only a small group of pro-Pakistani Afghans will be part of the post-Taliban regime. The Durand Line remains unrecognised, and the Pashtuns are likely to be unhappy with the situation on both the Pakistani side of the border and within Afghanistan.

Iran, like Pakistan, is concerned about strategic implications but it is likely to emerge as a winner from the current crisis. Tehran believes the US will use any foothold it gains in Afghanistan and Pakistan to put pressure on Iran. One way of doing this would be to promote oil and gas export pipelines Central Asia via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Arabian Sea. Proposals already exist for a pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan, with Unocal of the US having abandoned the idea by the late-1990s after the Taliban became too controversial to do business with. In addition, Iranian observers believe that Washington's goal is to turn the Central Asian states into "American protectorates" like the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries. But, whatever happens, Iran's position within Afghanistan itself will be better than it was during the 1990s. Its strategic rival in Afghan matters, Pakistan, is certain to have a weakened role in the country. Moreover, the possibility of rapprochement between the US and Iran cannot be ruled out.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been mainly concerned with the export of the Taliban's ideology from Afghanistan. Their decision to offer military facilities to the US ensures that this is not likely to happen, for two reasons: (1) the US military is set to destroy the Taliban, and (2) Washington will help both countries to strengthen their defences against Islamic militancy. In addition, the US is also likely to look aside when the leaders of Tashkent or Dushanbe decide to crack down on domestic opposition. In short, Phase One of the war against terrorism will help regimes in both countries to consolidate their positions in power.

China, although supportive of the war against terrorism, has been more discreet than most countries directly affected by the events in Afghanistan. It has faced growing unrest in Xinjiang province, where Muslim Uighurs are seeking independence. Islamic militant Uighurs have made use of training camps in Afghanistan to spread their activities in Xinjiang. Yet while China is pleased that such facilities in Afghanistan will be destroyed, it is concerned about the implications of a US foothold in Afghanistan. It is also concerned about the way in which Pakistan returned to the US orbit, after having moved very close to Beijing in the 1990s.