Imagining America without illegal immigrants: the millions of immigrants living illegally in the U.S. have long been a source of controversy. But what would life be like without them?

Try imagining America without illegal immigrants--many of the people who flip the burgers, clean the toilets, and watch the kids. Would the country be a better place?

President Bush reopened the national debate about immigration last month with a proposal to grant temporary visas to undocumented workers. His plan would let millions of illegal immigrants obtain three-year renewable work visas, if they can show that they have jobs and their employers certify that no Americans can be found to perform the work.

The announcement was the President's first big election-year policy initiative, one intended in part to appeal to Hispanics, a particularly fast-growing sector of the electorate. Bush's proposal won praise from immigrant advocates, but drew sharp criticism from many quarters. (See Debate, about the guest-worker proposal, p. 28.)

George J. Borjas, a professor of economics and social policy at Harvard and an expert on illegal immigration, doesn't like the President's proposal.

"The one good thing you could say about it is, it takes seriously the fact that the United States is not going to deport 10 million people," he says. "We have to do something about these people."

Most everyone agrees that mass deportation is unlikely. But imagining what would happen in the U.S. if the illegal immigrants suddenly disappeared is one way of understanding the economic backdrop to Bush's initiative.

CHEAP LABOR

The Pew Hispanic Center estimated in 2001 that the unauthorized labor force in the United States totaled 5.3 million workers, including 700,000 restaurant workers, 250,000 household employees, and 620,000 construction workers. In addition, about 1.2 million of the 2.5 million wage-earning farmworkers live here illegally, according to a study by Philip L. Martin, a professor at the University of California at Davis who studies immigration and farm labor.

That is a whole lot of cheap labor. Without it, fruit and vegetables would rot in fields. Toddlers would be without nannies. Towels at hotels in states like Florida, Texas, and California would go unlaundered. Commuters at airports from Miami to Seattle would be stranded as taxicabs sat driverless. And home improvement projects across the Sun Belt would grind to a halt.

"There would be a ripple effect across the economy," says Harry P. Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy institute at the University of Southern California, a Latino research group.

But Borjas argues the disruption would not be long lasting. As proof, he says, look no further than places like Iowa, where foreign-born residents are relatively rare, but there are people working in hotels, fast-food restaurants, and all the rest.

Most illegal immigrants, in fact, are concentrated in a handful of states--California, Texas, New York, Illinois, and Florida--leaving many parts of the U.S. relatively untouched by the influx. The Immigration and Naturalization Service estimates that 87 percent of illegal immigrants live in just 15 states.

AND IF THERE WERE NONE ...

If there were no undocumented workers to tend to the gardening, Californians who wanted a nice lawn would pay more for it, eventually drawing low skilled workers from other parts of the country, Borjas says, adding that American workers would be the better for it.

"The workers would be slightly wealthier, and the employers would be slightly poorer, but everything would get done," he says.

Laura Hill, a research fellow at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, says there would be a spike in prices for lettuce, spinach, and strawberries, which are typically picked by undocumented workers. But farmers and agricultural companies would eventually find cheaper ways to harvest the crops. "Who knows, but maybe it would turn into new technology being developed," she says. If not, Americans would look elsewhere, including other countries, for cheaper substitutes.

DEBATE OVER FINANCIAL IMPACT

Some immigration experts also suggest that American taxpayers would be better off financially if the country's illegal residents returned home. Mark Krikorian, executive director of Center for Immigration Studies, which favors greater restrictions on immigration, argues that there would be less stress on the social-welfare system.

"Immigrants overall use at least one major welfare program at a rate 50% higher than natives," Krikorian says, referring to an analysis of 2001 data by his center that found Medicaid use particularly high among immigrants. "That is not because they are morally defective. It is because they are poor and don't have any education, and they end up inevitably stumbling and having needs for the system."

But immigrant advocacy groups disagree. Raul Yzaguirre, president of the National Council of La Raza, a Latino civil rights organization, says the economic impact of immigration plays out differently at the local and national levels.

While hospitals and clinics in Los Angeles County, for example, bear huge health-care costs associated with uninsured illegal immigrants--one study put the total at $340 million in 2002--the federal government enjoys a "bonanza" from many of the same immigrants who pay federal taxes but receive no benefits in return, Yzaguirre says. Contrary to popular perception, many undocumented workers do have payroll taxes deducted from their paychecks. (In some instances, undocumented workers use false Social Security numbers, while others have valid numbers from when they had worked legally.)

Yzaguirre adds that without illegal immigrants, all Americans would be punished by having to pay more for everything from a McDonald's hamburger to a new house.

BLENDING IN WITH LEGAL IMMIGRANTS

Which side to believe? The problem with gathering data about illegal immigrants--and the idea of an America without them--is that they tend to blend into the vast tapestry of legal immigrants. Someone living and working in the U.S. with a valid visa one year can become illegal the next by overstaying the visa. A single household can have both legal and illegal residents, sometimes brothers and sisters.

Patricia Nelson Limerick, chairwoman of the Center of the American West at the University of Colorado, is optimistic about President Bush's immigration proposal. "The hope is that it would lead to some recognition that you don't solve problems of illegal immigration by shutting down the border," she says, "but reckoning with the problems in the home country."

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* Who is most responsible for illegal immigration, the immigrants or the employers who hire them?

* What criteria should U.S. officials use when deciding whether to deport illegal immigrants?

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand the debate over illegal immigrants, specifically whether they help the economy by taking jobs Americans don't want, or whether they are a drain on health care, schools, and welfare programs.

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

POLL: Before reading, ask whether students have a favorable or unfavorable view of illegal immigrants.

CRITICAL TNINKING: Remind students that the term "illegal immigrants" means people who have entered the country illegally. Ask students why, if immigration law is being violated, the authorities, including President Bush, seem to be looking the other way. Would President Bush suggest work visas be given to foreign visitors who had committed some other type of crime?

Note the provision in President Bush's proposal that requires employers to certify that no Americans can perform the work being done by illegal immigrants. How might an employer certify that no American will do the work that he or she has to offer? Does the example of workers in Iowa dispel the argument about Americans refusing to work at certain types of jobs? (See "Debate," p. 28.)

HOME RESEARCH: Have students share the information they learned from the article with their parents. Note especially the allusion to low-cost laborers who harvest America's fruits and vegetables. Students can ask their parents these questions: Would they pay more for their fruits and vegetables to ensure that Americans had these harvesting jobs? If so, how much more (percentage) would they be willing to pay?

POLL REVIEW: Go back to the question asked before students read the article Have any students changed their views?

WEB WATCH: Research both sides in the immigration debate. Go to www.fairus.org to find the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which favors immigration restrictions. Click on the U.S., map to see FAIR'S estimates of immigration's impact on each state. For a contrary view, go to the National Immigration Forum, which supports a liberal immigration policy, at www.immigrationforum.org.

DIRECTIONS: Circle letter next to the best answer.

1. President Bush's proposal on illegal immigrants
   would "allow them to work in the U.S.

   a without documentation.
   b only in certain types of jobs.
   c only if they spoke fluent English.
   d for three years, plus an unspecified renewal time.

2. President Bush's proposal is seen by many
   as an election-year gesture toward Hispanics,

   a who are most likely to vote Republican.
   b whose values are most similar to other Americans'.
   c a fast-growing sector of the electorate.
   d who tend to vote in high numbers.

3. Employers of illegal immigrants would
   have to certify that

   a the jobs are necessary to the economy.
   b no Americans can be found to perform the work.
   c the jobs are not dangerous.
   d the jobs pay a fair wage.

4. A legal, but highly unlikely alternative to allowing
   illegal immigrants live in the U.S., is

   a mass jailings.
   b mass deportations.
   c huge fines.
   d granting immediate citizenship to all of them.

5. The occupation with the most illegal immigrants is

   a farmwork.
   b restaurant work.
   c construction.
   d household Work.

6. There are high concentrations of illegal immigrants
   in all of the following states except

   a Arkansas.
   b California.
   c Illinois.
   d New York.

ANSWER KEY

1. (d) for three years, plus an unspecified renewal time.

2. (c) a fast-growing sector of the electorate.

3. (b) no Americans can be found to perform the work.

4. (b) deportation.

5. (a) farmwork.

6. (a) Arkansas.

Where Illegal
Immigrants
Come From

Top 10 countries
of origin for illegal
immigrants in the
United States

   COUNTRY          NUMBER

 1 MEXICO         4,808,000
 2 EL SALVADOR      189,000
 3 GUATEMALA        144,000
 4 COLOMBIA         141,000
 5 HONDURAS         138,000
 6 CHINA            115,000
 7 ECUADOR          108,000
 8 DOMINICAN         91,000
   REPUBLIC
 9 PHILIPPINES       85,000
10 BRAZIL            77,000

SOURCE: 2002 YEARBOOK OF
IMMIGRATION STATISTICS

THE 10 STATES with the highest number of illegal immigrants

California        2,209,000
Arizona             283,000
Colorado            144,000
Illinois            432,000
Texas             1,041,000
New York            489,000
North Carolina      206,000
Georgia             228,000
Florida             337,000
New Jersey          221,000

SOURCE: 2002 YEARBOOK OF IMMIGRATION STATISTICS

Dean E. Murphy is the San Francisco bureau chief for The New York Times