Identifying the world's poor; ILO research to focus on special indicators.

Identifying the world's poor

How many among the world's 5,000 million inhabitants are really poor? Nobody knows. Nor has there been an internationally recognized yardstick to measure real poverty.

What should be the criteria to assess poverty? Can one regard as poor a community living in a relatively undeveloped environment, with no easy access to roads, health or education, even though they may have an adequate income to feed their respective families? Does one define poverty purely in income terms or should the definition include the essential components of a socially satisfying life including such facilities as electricity, roads, health, education and other amenities such as sports and entertainment? A society in some remote kraal in central or southern Africa may consider these amenities as luxuries but for others in more developed regions, these constitute the basic elements of every-day existence.

The need for accurately assessing the spread--or decline--of poverty has become all the more important in the light of the population explosion and the turbulence in the world economy which threatens to make the poor even poorer. Accurate--and timely--information on the extent and trends in poverty would be a first step in helping national governments to take preventive measures against the spread of penury among their peoples.

The ILO is, perhaps belatedly, conducting research to identify social and economic indicators of poverty in various communities. At first glance, this may appear to be a somewhat simplistic effort since poverty as such has generally been defined on the basis of an individual's income. But there are other factors which directly or indirectly undermine an economically and socially satisfying life for the individual or the community. A composite picture of the prevalence of poverty among particular communities calls for a relatively accurate picture of the various social and economic indicators which constitute poverty.

"This is what we hope to evolve", says Mr. Tokman, Chief of the ILO's Employment and Development Department. "Our research has two goals: first, to suggest an alternative way of monitoring poverty changes through a set of key indicators or proxies of poverty which are available on a regular and continuing basis and which will go beyond the concept of poverty line; and secondly, using these indicators to assess what has happened to selected poverty groups and countries over a given period."

How can one evolve such a poverty yardstick? While a clear-cut formula has yet to emerge, researchers are looking into a series of indicators which should, they hope, give them a clearer picture.

In trying to assess urban poverty, for instance, the researchers are concentrating on a set of social and economic indicators linked to employment opportunities and wage incomes such as: labour force participation, trends in different sectors of employment, real wages for unskilled labour and for specific occupations, the output indices for industry and services as well as income flows based on national accounts data.

Assessing rural poverty is an equally complex task. The problem, here is to find out which of the rural socio-economic indicators or a combination of these can provide an accurate picture. The research will focus, among other things, on real wages of agricultural labourers, agricultural output, including the output of export crops, per capita availability of food, the price of food and price indices for farm exports as well as the terms of trade between agriculture and industry.

Another facet of the research will be the evaluation of a rapid assessment surveys system for monitoring of employment and poverty. A long-term solution to the problem of monitoring employment and poverty on a regular basis will probably require the development of a simple low-cost system of rapid data collection. "Conventional household surveys are too expensive and cumbersome to be used for this purpose. There is a need for some system of small-sample household surveys focused on vulnerable groups to secure data on a few key employment and poverty variables. Our research will centre on a review of existing rapid assessment systems which could be modified for employment and poverty monitoring including a realistic assessment of the advantages and limitations of such a system."

The informal or unorganized sector which has of late emerged as a major provider of employment in many developing countries will also be studied in the current effort. Much of what happens in the informal "sector is linked to developments in the organized sector. Ideally, the ongoing research will provide a mechanism which will relate anticipated changes in the organized labour markets with employment and incomes in the non-organized sector", says Mr. Tokman.

The completion of the research and evolution of specific models for assessing poverty and employment should be of considerable help to governments, Mr. Tokman contends.

While different yardsticks may be used for different communities and for different regions, policy-planners can benefit through the use of the indicators to assess the decline or spread of poverty in particular societies so that appropriate programmes can be evolved and implemented in time. Other multilateral organizations and major aid donors can also use these yardsticks in drawing up their aid programmers which can be targeted towards groups in need.