Ice Breaker.

The rapid and unexpected breakup of the Arctic icecap may help break the icejam at critical climate negotiations in the Hague this November. But the equally dramatic collapse of the coal market in China may turn out to be an even more effective ice breaker.

When the Russian icebreaker Yamal neared the North Pole last July, the scientists and tourists aboard gradually became aware that something was amiss. As later reported in a New York Times story that caused worldwide reverberations, the observers found only thin patches of ice floating in large expanses of open water. The usual 2- to 3-meter thick pack ice was virtually nonexistent. And when the Yamal arrived at the North Pole itself, the passengers found completely open water, a phenomenon never before reported in the 91 years since Robert Peary and Matthew Henson reached the North Pole by dogsled in 1909. But human memory is the wrong scale on which to measure this development: the last time the North Pole was completely ice-free was 50 million years ago.

Of course, there have been patches of open water here and there in the Arctic for as long as memory serves, and--as some scientists noted in the aftermath of the Times article--the constant shifting of the ice pack as a result of wind and water currents could mean that next year there will be ice at the Pole once again. But the basic conclusions drawn by the scientists on the Yamal--that the Arctic as a whole is losing its ice cap--have been corroborated by numerous other observations. A small Canadian police boat transiting the sub-polar Northwest Passage from Alaska to Greenland in late summer, for example, reported seeing virtually no ice, and was able to navigate the complex route in a remarkable six weeks.

Scientific observations, made from both above and below the ice, lead to an unarguable and momentous conclusion: The earth's frozen top is melting at an extraordinary rate. Satellite photographs have shown a 10 percent reduction in the area covered by Arctic ice, while sonar measurements taken by U.S. submarines have tracked a 40 percent decline in its average thickness since the 1950s--a decline far exceeding the rate of melting previously estimated. Scientists at the University of Bergen's Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Norway have concluded that by the middle of this century, the entire Arctic could be ice-free in summer. Among the myriad signs of human-induced global climate change--fossil fuel combustion was recently estimated to have raised atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to their highest levels in 20 million years--this melting of the Arctic may be the most dramatic.

While the shipping industry is already beginning to view the liquidation of the Arctic as a potential short-term opportunity (it could cut the transit distance between Europe and the Far East by as much as 5,000 kilometers), the impact on the human race as a whole is likely to be far more profound. The disappearance of the Arctic ice cap would represent a fundamental shift in the earth's biosphere. It would bring far-reaching but hard-to-predict ecological and economic consequences.

One of the most dramatic effects of this warming, ironically, could be a drastic cooling of the climate in Europe. Scientists have recently learned that Arctic ice is a key part of the "engine" that drives the powerful oceanic conveyor belt--the Gulf Stream--that provides northern Europe with the relatively warm and stable climate which has allowed European societies to flourish over the past few millennia. Shutting it down would change the climate of Europe more than at any time since the last ice age. And because the Gulf Stream is one of the largest features in the oceanic circulation system, its reversal would have effects all over the world. Moreover, with less ice to reflect the sun's rays, the global warming that caused the ice to melt in the first place would accelerate.

Just as the evidence of Arctic melting was turning from a rivulet to a river, another starting but less-heralded report--one that may provide a kernel of hope for slowing the melting--emerged from 10,000 kilometers to the south. Early this year, the government of China reported that the combustion of coal in that country had fallen by 17 percent last year.

China is the world's largest consumer of coal, and its huge reserves led the IPCC and other analysts to conclude that China will be the largest contributor to increased global carbon emissions in the future. Their assumption is that the temptation to burn the country's cheap coal would be irresistible, despite the huge amount of pollutants its combustion generates. But instead, thanks to the new reform policies the government has enacted in recent years, this was the third consecutive year in which China's use of coal declined, bringing its annual consumption to a level that is 25 percent below the record high it had reached in 1996. More pointedly, it meant that the United States, not China, is now the world's largest coal consumer--for the first time in 15 years.

This, too, is a trend with planetary significance. Coal contributes 40 percent of the climate-altering carbon dioxide gas that enters the atmosphere each year, and China's reduction in coal use has helped pull global carbon dioxide emissions down for two consecutive years, despite the fact that the global economy grew 5.5 percent during the period. But even more important than the reduction achieved directly may be the impact this shift could have on the actions of other countries.

With its 1.3 billion people, rapidly industrializing economy, and massive coal resources, China has long been viewed as the most intractable element in the global energy equation. Some U.S. industry representatives suggested that it may be pointiess for countries in Europe and North America to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions if such reductions are likely to be overwhelmed by the effects of China's projected increase in coal--burning emissions. This argument--if they won't behave, why should we--has contributed to a three-year delay in enacting the binding emissions limits contained in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change.

The recent news from the Middle Kingdom effectively eliminates that rationale for further delay. China's ongoing program to reduce subsidies for coal, and for large industries more generally, is reaping surprisingly prompt and dramatic results: energy efficiency has improved, polluting industries have been shut down, and many coal mines have been closed, while the economy itself continues to grow at a robust 5 percent annual rate. It is now the United States that is in the embarrassing position of explaining why its emissions are growing faster than China's even though U.S. per capita emissions are already nine times as high.

Along with China's reforms, other signs of progress are now becoming more visible. Booming sales of wind- and solar-power generation are providing carbon-free energy in many parts of the world. Today, Denmark is getting close to 9 percent of its electricity from the wind--about as much as the United States gets from hydropower. BP, the world's second largest oil company, announced in June that its initials now stand for "Beyond Petroleum," and said it had plans to put solar cells on all of its service stations. And the world's automakers are racing hard to put the first hydrogen fuel cell cars on the road. DaimlerChrysler plans to have 100,000 of the vehicles in showrooms in 2004.

As environmental officials from around the world head to the Hague this November to complete work on the Kyoto Protocol, they will face a huge task. Scientists believe that stabilizing the earth's climate will require roughly an 80 percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions from the current level. The recent reduction in China's emissions and the growth in new energy technologies represent only small steps in the right direction. But they do suggest that the melting of Arctic ice may not be the only important thaw now under way. Some formerly intransigent parties to the climate debate are finally warming to the idea that global energy needs can be met without belching billions of tons of carbon gas into the atmosphere.

Christopher Flavin is president of the Worldwatch Institute.