IT SAYS HERE: CAVONNIER THE WINNER.

Byline: Kevin Modesti Daily News Staff Writer

For the first time since Sunday Silence seven years ago, the Kentucky Derby winner today will come out of the Santa Anita Derby.

But he will not be Alyrob, the impressively bred though inexperienced gelding whose fullback charge to a second-place finish in Arcadia caught the eyes of many California handicappers (as well as the track stewards). The winner, it says here, will be the gelding who held off Alyrob in the fastest final furlong in the past quarter-century of Santa Anita Derbies.

It would be hard to imagine a 10-1 shot in any Kentucky Derby who meets so many handicapping criteria as Cavonnier. He has the pedigree, the seasoning, the major victory that marks a classic contender, a jockey (Chris McCarron) with two Derby victories, and a comfortable post position (4).

In fact, this year, you won't find an 8-5 shot with so few apparent weaknesses, now that Unbridled's Song's task has been complicated by a foot ailment and a bad post (19).

Cavonnier's morning-line odds are too good to pass up. So are value-minded exacta bets connecting him with trouble-ridden Prince of Thieves, improving and well-bred In Contention, inside speedster Zarb's Magic and the colt who is, at least, ``due'' for a win, Editor's Note.