IT'D BE FOOLISH TO RUSH A TRADE.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

The Dodgers have spent half the season patting themselves on the back. You could start right there in trying to explain all the arm injuries.

Not that the self-congratulation has been undeserved. Though rated also- rans before the year's first pitch, stung by a superstar's walkout threat, distracted by the general manager's ouster, weakened by injuries to eight front-line players and forced to lean heavily on an untested catcher, they've been contenders for the division title or the wild-card playoff spot.

The day before the All-Star break, Jim Tracy sat behind his Dodger Stadium desk and expressed confidence that his seemingly overmatched roster could hang tough for 2 1/2 more months against the Arizonas and Atlantas of the baseball world.

``We're halfway up the hill. I want to go all the way up the hill with this group,'' the Dodgers manager said, nodding toward the clubhouse across the hall. ``They haven't given me any indication as to why I should think (they aren't capable).''

Asked if he meant to direct that we-can-do-it message to the players alone, and if he might say something different to the front office, Tracy was noncommittal.

``I know they (his bosses) see the job this group has done,'' he said.

In the week since that conversation, the time for back-patting has passed and the time for realistic assessment has arrived.

Kevin Brown's latest and most serious injury, suffered Sunday in Pittsburgh and confirmed Monday, leaves Tracy, interim general manager Dave Wallace and club boss Bob Daly facing a hard choice.

The three-headed ruling group, with a combined 31 months in their jobs, must decide if the Dodgers really are contenders, or if they're fortunate to be as close as they are to the National League West-leading Diamondbacks and the NL wild-card front-running Braves.

The decision could have an impact on the club beyond this fall.

If they believe the Dodgers really are contenders, they'd be justified in trading away young players to reinforce a rotation that, without Brown for at least four weeks and Darren Driefort and Andy Ashby for the season, has a combined 17 victories in starting roles in 2001.

But if they aren't deep-down confident they can win the World Series for the first time in 13 years (and not just make the playoffs), they'd be foolish to gamble.

To make a trade before the end-of-July non-waiver deadline, they must determine that Brown will be able to return in time to help them if they make the playoffs. Only with Brown and Chan Ho Park leading their rotation would they frighten a postseason opponent.

Monday, the forecast of Brown's recovery time from a severe elbow sprain varied from Dodgers source to Dodgers source. Dr. Frank Jobe's four-week estimate was right in the middle.

The club hailed the result of Jobe's examination in Inglewood as good news, considering what it had feared a day earlier. It was delighted that, because Brown might not be lost for the year, any trade attempt will be viewed as less desperate, meaning other teams won't have all the leverage in negotiations.

But that doesn't mean other teams will be rushing to help the Dodgers. Considering how the industry received the contracts for Brown ($15 million a year), Dreifort ($11 million) and Ashby ($7 million), the injuries will be viewed as the triumph of the Gods of Baseball over the Big Dodger in the Sky.

It will be impossible to replace Brown and risky to give up too much of 2002 for an uncertain 2001.

Of course, it's not easy to admit to yourself or to your fans that you're non-contenders. Don't expect a White Flag Night promotion at Dodger Stadium anytime soon.

Whoever said discretion is the better part of valor (Shakespeare? Bacon? Berra?) did not have to answer to 30,000 fans a night.