ISG Exit Strategy.

The US-Congress-appointed and Bush-endorsed Iraq Study Group (ISG), headed by respected former US secretary of state James Baker and former Democratic congressman Lee Hamilton, is talking about a change of course in Iraq. The two main strands of Baker's recommendations centre on a phased withdrawal of US troops and the involvement of Iran and Syria.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, has welcomed the idea of Damascus and Tehran being involved, saying this it will stabilise Iraq "within months". But the idea of involving governments which Bush insists are sponsors of global terrorism is likely to have been flagged up purely to make the prospect of the first option, the staged withdrawal, more palatable.

The problem remains that if the US, British and other coalition forces abandon Iraq before it is in a position to defend itself, the various terrorist groups now running around the country will step into the vacuum and take control, creating a safer haven for terror organisations to stage attacks against the West. Blair insisted on Oct. 17 that British forces will not "walk away" from Iraq because that would leave extremists everywhere "emboldened", reaffirming an assurance made on Oct. 16 by Bush that the US will stay the course.