IS ARNOLD STRONG ENOUGH IN LONG RUN?

Byline: Rick Orlov Staff Writer

The debut of Arnold Schwarzenegger, the politician, drew raves for an opening night performance.

The question now is whether he and his gubernatorial campaign will have the legs to become a blockbuster or be canceled Oct. 7 after an eight-week run.

That was the consensus of a number of political consultants and experts as Schwarzenegger took out his papers to enter the election to pick a successor to Gov. Gray Davis if a majority votes to recall him.

``I think the announcement and the way he handled it was a brilliant orchestration,'' said Arnie Steinberg, a Republican political strategist and consultant. ``But, having said that, it appears he's more interested in showmanship than in running for governor.''

Steinberg said he is concerned about the way Schwarzenegger kept the decision to run so closely guarded that he even caught his staff off guard.

``That indicates a candidate who can't be managed,'' Steinberg said. ``It almost appears reckless. If he can't confide in his top people, it suggests there might be a problem beneath the surface.

``Anyone running for governor will be under a microscope with intense media scrutiny. If he's banking on not facing that or controlling that and not having debates, it's an extremely dangerous strategy.''

But the ``Arnold impact'' was felt immediately.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who financed the recall campaign, dropped out. Two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, got in the race because of the expected impact of Schwarzenegger on the election.

Mark Baldassare, director of the Public Policy Institute of California, said the one thing that cannot be denied is the star power Schwarzenegger brings to the campaign - evidenced by the wide television coverage given his announcement and his first day as a candidate.

``He has created an intense public interest in this recall,'' Baldassare said. ``His presence in the campaign crates a whole new level of public and media interest that otherwise wouldn't be there.''

Which is a sword that cuts both ways for Schwarzenegger as the election draws nearer and he is asked more specific questions about how he would handle the state's problems and on his own background.

``It is one thing to go on the 'Tonight Show' and get a lot of hoopla,'' said Democratic consultant Kam Kuwata. ``It's quite another thing to face daily questions from the California and national press corps.

``Will this be a campaign of Jay Leno questions where glib answers and sound bites are allowed to carry the day? Or will he have to provide real answers to real problems. Right now, he's providing glib answers and great one-liners. That might not hold up for long.''

And there is the Schwarzenegger reputation - an issue he himself described to Leno as ``womanizing.''

In 2001, when he was first being mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate against Davis, Democrats released a barrage of information from tabloids listing accusations of various romantic liaisons.

``The way this is shaping up, we won't have to do anything,'' said Bob Mulholland, the political director of the California Democratic Party. ``The tabloids and the regular media will take care of it for us. They're already out there asking questions.''

Baldassare, however, said Schwarzenegger's presence has been able to push aside those issues as he has dominated the campaign for two days.

``We'll have to see how long that lasts,'' Baldassare said. ``In terms of whatever media coverage there is, it will make it more difficult for the other candidates to get their messages out.''

Marty Kaplan, associate dean of the USC Annenberg School for Communication, cautioned not to either overestimate or underplay the celebrity factor that Schwarzenegger brings.

``I find it most interesting that there is the assumption people can't help themselves by being attracted to a celebrity,'' Kaplan said. ``It's as if being a celebrity is a force and we can only react like a character in a movie.''

But with a short campaign and high name recognition, Kaplan said, Schwarzenegger can be a factor in both bringing people to vote for the recall and for his candidacy.

``In this circumstance, you are looking at a plausible winner getting only 15 percent of the vote,'' Kaplan said. ``With two Democrats - Bustamante and Garamendi - splitting the vote with several others, Arnold could emerge as the victor.''

But it also is not known how well Schwarzenegger will do among die-hard Republicans - who generally are at odds with his positions favoring abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.

``Right now he's a novelty factor,'' said Steinberg, the GOP strategist. ``But he could have a difficult time because of the attention he is getting. Any mistake he makes will be overblown.

``And then there are the other candidates. They will be in this to win and you could see them begin to cannibalize one another,'' he said.

Rick Orlov, [phone]

rick.orlov(at)dailynews.com