IRAQ IN NO-WIN ZONE : U.S. WARPLANES REPULSE THREAT; CLINTON SAYS GOALS ACHIEVED.

Byline: Michael E. Ruane, Steven Thomma and David Hess Knight-Ridder Newspapers

Iraqi air defenses briefly challenged U.S. warplanes in the sky over Iraq on Wednesday, but the showdown in Iraq appeared to be developing into a clear military and political win for President Clinton.

Clinton declared that U.S. military goals in Iraq had been achieved and that Saddam Hussein may be ending his incursion into the northern part of the country.

Earlier Wednesday, Iraq sent two MiG-29s in a feint toward U.S. planes patrolling the southern no-fly zone that was widened Wednesday by Clinton's order, and one of Iraq's mobile missile batteries began tracking an American F-16, said Defense Secretary William Perry.

The American jet fired back a radar-seeking air-to-ground missile, and the tracking stopped.

The incidents, which Perry did not deem serious, came after two days of U.S. cruise missile attacks on air-defense facilities in the area.

The president and other administration officials said the barrage of missile strikes had strategically crippled Saddam, and hinted that the week-old crisis might be easing.

``The situation in northern Iraq seems to have changed,'' the president said in a brief afternoon statement. ``There has been a withdrawal of the forces, a dispersal of the forces. But it's too soon to say that this is permanent or that further action will not be taken.''

In addition, he said, ``the missile strikes that were conducted over the last few days have been successful. The targets were either destroyed or sufficiently damaged so that we can say that our mission has been achieved.''

If that declaration holds in coming days and weeks, it would be a political windfall for Clinton, who avoided the draft and has been under attack from Republicans for being a weak leader in foreign and military affairs.

Nearly three out of four Americans approve of Clinton's handling of Iraq, according to a poll conducted Tuesday for the ABC News program ``Nightline.''

The poll of 515 people had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. The 73 percent approval rating was up dramatically from the 58 percent who approved of Clinton's handling of Iraq in October 1994.

But the gain could be temporary. By leaving Saddam in power and leaving his troops in northern Iraq, Clinton could suffer politically if the dictator starts causing trouble again before the presidential election in November.

Clinton's upbeat comments on the military situation were echoed by Perry and by Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Ralston, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

``We believe that some force movement has taken place,'' Ralston said at the Pentagon on Wednesday morning. ``But . . . we're still watching them very closely.''

Perry, who appeared at the Pentagon with British Defense Minister Michael Portillo in the afternoon, said: ``We . . . observe a general pullback of Iraqi forces that were in the north.''

The administration seemed eager to show that the suggestively named ``Operation Desert Strike'' in southern Iraq had brought the desired effect in the north, where Saddam sent 40,000 troops and tanks last weekend to exploit a split in rebel Kurdish factions.

While the Iraqi leader's forces were ravaging the northern Kurds who are technically under the protection of an allied no-fly zone, the president ordered strikes hundreds of miles away in the south.

Starting Tuesday, the Pentagon unleashed a two-day barrage of 44 cruise missiles in the no-fly zone in southern Iraq. The president had ordered that zone to be extended as of noon Wednesday.

Criticized for not coming directly to the Kurds' aid, some Clinton aides at first argued that U.S. interests lay in protecting the Saudi oil fields to the south and in making the extended no-fly zone safe for U.S. aviators.

Wednesday, though, officials began claiming that the strikes had also strategically crippled Saddam and reduced his ability to menace his neighbors as well as his people.

``This has changed the strategic situation,'' Clinton said, ``particularly in the southern part of Iraq, which Saddam used as a staging ground for his invasion of Kuwait, and then in 1994 for the massing of his troops near the Kuwaiti border.

``He is strategically worse off than he was before these strikes began,'' the president said.

It remained to be seen, though, exactly how much long-term damage Saddam has sustained.

In March, Army Gen. J.H. Binford Peay III, whose Florida-based Central Command has responsibility for Iraq, told Congress that Iraq's air defenses had been rebuilt to their potent prewar level and that its army was again robust.

``What we have in Iraq is a downsized force significantly upgraded, weak in air, strong in army, that is significantly more capable than the other neighboring states are able to handle,'' Peay told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Peay said then that the Iraqi army had 23 divisions, down from 51 at the start of the Persian Gulf War in 1991. But what he lost were mostly lower-quality units.

Wednesday, Perry said that half of Iraq's Russian-built MiGs based in the extended area of the southern no-fly zone scurried to safety before the noon deadline Wednesday.

And while Perry claimed that all the fixed SA-2 and SA-3 anti-aircraft missile sites attacked this week suffered ``serious degradation,'' it was a mobile anti-aircraft missile battery across the new zone boundary that tracked the F-16.

It was attacked all the same, Perry said: ``Our rules of engagement permit us to attack any radar which is illuminating us in a threatening way, even though it is north of the no-fly zone.''

``In my view, now is the appropriate time to settle the matter,'' said Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind. ``Saddam has repeatedly attempted to break the shackles we imposed, and he's doing it again - and he'll continue to do it unless we take action to stop him.''

CAPTION(S):

2 maps

MAP: (1) PUNISHING IRAQ

(2) Iraq