IRAQ - US Wait Till '06.

In March and again in July, Gen. Casey, who also commands the 147,000 US troops in Iraq, had predicted a "fairly substantial" cut in American forces next spring and summer if the political process goes positively and progress is made in developing Iraqi forces. Pentagon officials said that meant a reduction of perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 troops. But after briefing US lawmakers behind closed doors on Capitol Hill on Sept. 28, Casey was more cautious when asked whether the troop reduction was still possible. He told reporters: "I think right now we're in a period of a little greater uncertainty than when I was asked that question back in July and March" - noting that Iraqis vote on the draft constitution on Oct. 15 and, if they endorse it, then elect a new government on Dec. 15. He said: "This constitutional referendum and whether it is supported by the Sunnis to a large degree, I think, is something that we just have to watch to see how that comes out. So until we're done with this political process here, with the referendum and the elections in December, I think it's too soon to tell".

The constitution largely reflects the views of the Shi'ite Arab majority and the Kurds - leading the US-backed Iraqi government - rather than the minority Sunni Arabs who controlled Iraq under Saddam.