IRAQ - Turkish Plan For Kurdistan.

The Turkish government has a contingency plan to place at least 20,000 troops inside northern Iraq to prevent the co-ruling Kurdish groups from changing the demographic structure of the contested city of Kirkuk, according to Turkish newspapers. The plan ostensibly calls for re-entry of Turkish forces into northern Iraq to rout out Turkish-Kurdish militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and also calls for Turkish troops to prevent further Iraqi Kurdish migration to Kirkuk. The city has a large Turkoman population, and vast oil reserves.

Media reports indicate that large numbers of Kurds are migrating to Kirkuk. They had been displaced under the Saddam regime and are returning to their rightful homes; Turkey claims Iraqi Kurdish leaders Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani want to ensure a Kurdish majority in the city under the next census in order to claim it as rightfully theirs, and seek its inclusion in a federal Kurdistan. Barzani heightened Turkish concern in recent weeks through inflammatory statements which made clear that Iraqi Kurds were seeking the return of Kirkuk to them. He told reporters in Ankara on Oct. 12 Kirkuk had a Kurdish "identity" and vowed to fight any force that would attempt to intercede.

According to news reports published in Istanbul's Cumhuriyet, Milliyet and Sabah between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1, Ankara's contingency plan was reviewed during an Oct. 14 cabinet meeting attended by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Chief of General Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, Defence Minister Vecdi Gonul and Turkish envoy to Iraq Osman Koruturk, among others.

Milliyet reported on Nov. 1 that the plan called for deployment of two army divisions to the area, including a 40,000-strong force to stand ready to enter northern Iraq on 18-hours notice. Those troops would first focus on PKK camps in the Qandil mountain range with air support.

Turkish concerns over the presence of PKK militants in northern Iraq had been heightened by reports that Syrian and Iranian Kurds had joined Turkish Kurds in northern Iraq, Sabah reported on Oct. 31. The daily claimed number of militants present there had increased dramatically from the 2,000 that fled across the Turkish-Iraqi border on the orders of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan four years ago. Sabah cited as "proof" the discovery of Syrian and Iranian nationals among those militants killed in clashes "over the past few days".

Cumhuriyet reported that the Turkish force would consist of 20,000 troops, and claimed military forces had already begun their deployment towards the Turkish-Iraqi border. The daily claimed Turkey had received tacit approval from US officials to intervene in Kirkuk. Cumhuriyet also reported that the contingency plan was further discussed at an Oct. 27 meeting between the Turkish National Security Council and the Turkish armed forces.

The newspapers' reports claimed Barzani and Talabani were operating under the false assumption that Turkey would not take action against the "Kurdization" of Kirkuk before the Dec. 17 European Union summit, when Turkey will begin accession talks with the EU. But Sabah contended: "There are national goals and causes that are more important than the EU...for Kirkuk is in fact not the heart of Kurdistan, but rather that of Turkey's Iraq policy".

It is unlikely that the US has given any sort of tacit approval for a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq. Iraq's Kurds would interpret such as move as an invasion, and large-scale fighting would ensue. Baghdad also would not welcome such an incursion, since it would destabilise the whole of northern Iraq, which has experienced relative quiet since 1992. However, it is clear that something is afoot in northern Iraq.

On Oct. 12 Egypt's Middle Eastern News Agency (MENA) reported that Kurdish paramilitary forces were moving troops further north and digging tunnels and establishing military outposts near Dahuk, close to the Turkish border. MENA said the new peshmerga positions would effectively give them control over the major land entry points along the border.

Turkey has had a long-standing interest in Kirkuk because of its vast oil reserves, and Turkish leaders in 2003 attempted to claim a Turkish historical right to the city.