IRAQ - The Short- To Long-Term Gauls.

The Bush administration has defined "victory" in Iraq as a staged concept. According to a US intelligence briefing published earlier this month, the short-term goal is this: "An Iraq is making steady progress in fighting terrorists and neutralizing the insurgency, meeting political milestones; building democratic institutions; standing up robust security forces... and tackling key economic reforms..."

The medium-term: "An Iraq that is in the lead defeating terrorists and insurgents and providing its own security, with a constitutional, elected government in place, providing an inspiring example to reformers in the [Greater Middle East - GME] region, and well on its way to achieving its economic potential".

The long term: "An Iraq that has defeated the terrorists and neutralized the insurgency; that is peaceful, stable, democratic..." and secure and is a partner against terrorism, WMD proliferation and is "proving the fruits of democratic governance to the region". This means there could be US troops in Iraq for many years, or for decades.

These fairly expansive goals are not different from those articulated at the outset of the war - but wide-ranging and with implications beyond Iraq's borders. The Neo-Salafi insurgency, a Sunni fundamentalist insurgency which the US and the Iraqi government call terrorism, consists mostly of suicide bombers (see ood5bbIraqNeoSalafiNov21-05).

On Nov. 17, Congressman John Murtha, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, made a speech at the US House of Representatives calling for rapid pullout of US forces from Iraq. A decorated Marine from the Vietnam war and generally viewed as a defence hawk, he thus opened an intense debate on US strategy in Iraq, including the question of whether, when, and under what circumstances US forces would begin to be withdrawn from the country.

President Bush gave a speech at the US Naval Academy and released a document entitled "National Strategy for Victory in Iraqi". Bush said Americans and the US military deserved such a "clear strategy for victory" against "the enemy in Iraq".