IRAQ - The Salafi Bet.

The Sunni Arabs, about 20% of Iraq's population, make up the core of the insurgency. But the most deadly fighters are suicide bombers belonging Salafi groups, who are mostly non-Iraqi volunteers led by the Jordanian/Palestinian terrorist Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi. This group is desperately trying to disrupt the political process. Leading al-Qaeda's Iraq branch, Zarqawi has vowed repeatedly that he will ignite a civil war between the Sunni and Shiite Arabs.

The Salafis are the most radical, most fanatic fringe of Sunnism. Worse than the fascists, they apply the medieval concept of tattarrus which allows them to kill even innocent Sunnis, as well as Shiites and non-Muslims - be they military or civilian, women and children, Arabs or Kurds, and so forth. They are gaining their own momentum in Iraq, where they include Iraqi Kurds and Turkomans, as well as volunteers from Syria, Saudi Arabia, other Arab countries, Europe and other parts of the world (see news1cIraqSalafJul4-5). Salafi insurgents in Iraq are connected to such suicide bomber cells as those who hit in London on July 7 and those who hit in Sharm el-Shaikh on July 23 (see news5cWorldTerroAug1-05).

Some of Iraq's Sunni Arabs actively fight while others provide aid or look the other way. Even the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS), which claims to control over 3,000 Sunni mosques across Iraq, has access to the Salafi terrorist groups. The AMS continues to maintain links to Zarqawi's group. This is despite Zarqawi's recent warnings that his al-Qaeda Organisation for Jihad in Mesopotamia will be executing any Sunni Arab who takes part in drafting the constitution and in the Shiite/Kurkish-led political process.

Yet recently there has been progress in luring a relatively large group of the Sunni Arabs to participate in politics, including the constitutional process. Some who urged an election boycott just six months ago now want their fellow Sunni Arabs to vote in upcoming elections, and a core group has helped draft the constitution. A Sunni Arab walkout ended in late July.

Nevertheless, the Salafi insurgents are going full throttle, stepping up attacks against Iraqi civilians and security forces. May was the most violent month for Iraqi civilians since the US-led invasion to remove Saddam in March 2003, said Lt. Gen. John R. Vines, commander of the US-led Multinational Force (MNF) in Iraq. Iraqi officials say 434 civilians were killed in May, up from 299 in April, and that another 151 Iraqi police and 85 Iraqi soldiers were killed - both figures up sharply from April.

A Pentagon report to Congress says the insurgents "remain capable, adaptable and intent on carrying out attacks". The Pentagon conceded that the insurgency's Salafi fringe allied with Zarqawi has a big impact through its propaganda and the dramatic nature of its attacks. The top US commander in the Middle East, Gen. John Abizaid, told Congress recently the insurgents' strength had not fallen in the last six months.

Even more troubling, there are signs that long-standing Sunni-Shiite Arab tensions are on the rise, if not yet reaching a long-feared civil war, as Shiite Arabs continue to bear the brunt of the suicide attacks. And US officials have expressed high-level concerns about Sunni Arab complaints of Shiite-led police abuse.

US officials are so intent on keeping the political momentum - citing it as one of Iraq's few bright spots - that they are pressing for the Aug. 15 constitution deadline even if that means leaving out key points. Marr said there remained only one way to defeat the insurgents "and that's to get enough Sunnis...to turn against them". But she did not hide her pessimism, saying: "I think we have to prepare ourselves for a rather long process here. ... I'm sorry to have to say that, and I hope I'm wrong. But that's the way it looks to me from Baghdad".