IRAQ - The Realities Facing Saddam.

The internal situation facing Saddam has not changed much since the 1992, by which time the domestic situation had stabilised, relatively, in terms of political risks as the Kurdish and Shiite rebellions had been put down. But the pressure on the regime has been kept up by the US and Britain, acting through the UN Security Council. Through diplomacy and military pressure, the US has reduced the area of Iraq under the Baathist regime's effective control.

Saddam is limited in the actions he can undertake below the 33rd parallel and above the 36th parallel, where American-imposed no-fly zones are in force. Saddam has full control only in the three degrees of latitude between the 33rd and 36th parallels.

Iraq as a whole lies between the 29th parallel in the south and the 37.5th parallel in the north. In the no-fly zones as well as in central Iraq, Iraq has in recent years been facing continuous pinprick attacks by US jets. This has become a routine matter, to the extent that it does not merit much media attention any more.

Washington's objective through such tactics is to keep the regime on edge, encourage the Iraqi people to revolt, and increase dissatisfaction within the military to a level where commanders may consider they have no option but to jointly oust Saddam. This could be seen from comments made by various US officials throughout the past decade.

Yet all this has not had the desired effect. On the contrary, it may have made both the regime and the people more stubborn in resisting the sanctions, with most Iraqis now blaming the US instead of Saddam for their suffering - especially in light of the latest events on the Arab-Israeli front.

Saddam also knows that if he manages to survive, his reputation as the only leader who has successfully challenged the might of the only superpower will be cemented. He also knows that, provided the country is not partitioned, Iraq after the sanctions are lifted would become the most important oil exporting country next to Saudi Arabia. It would become the biggest and most attractive market in the Middle East for international contractors, plant suppliers, manufacturers, service providers, etc.

Still the chances for the sanctions being lifted are slim, because (a) unanimity is needed on the council for that to happen, and (b) the US backed by Britain aims to keep the embargo in place until Saddam is no longer on the scene.

From the American standpoint, and more specifically from the Bush administration's perspective, anything less than Saddam's ouster would amount to a political victory for the Iraqi leader. This is something Washington cannot tolerate as it could have serious negative effects in the Middle East, with special implications for countries allied to the US.

The state of affairs within Iraq has deteriorated considerably since the January-February 1991 Gulf war. While the government has carried out reconstruction activities and the basic essentials are available, the people are suffering as a result of shortages in critical areas like medicine, baby foods, etc. For the general public, the main challenge to be faced is survival on a day to basis.

With the sanctions in place, notions of globalisation have little or no meaning to a country which is unable to import medicines unless it gets authorisation from a UN committee dedicated to the task. Little goes into or out of Iraq without the US intelligence community being aware of it. But Iraq still manages to smuggle out more than 100,000 b/d of oil for which Saddam gets 100% of the revenues, with one of the export routes being the Turkish border.

Washington has turned a blind eye to this because of the costs incurred by Turkey by ending its trade with Iraq, while Ankara has maximised its benefits by making the Incirlik Air Base available for US air raids into Iraq.

Baghdad is also exporting 100,000-150,000 b/d to Syria and it is giving Jordan oil sanctioned by the UN. So about 300,000 b/d of oil is sold outside UN financial control. In addition, UN monitored exports are averaging 250,000 b/d of which Saddam gets a third. This means the Iraqi leader is getting some $4 billion/year in oil revenues, according to some sources, while British officials have suggested no more than $1.5 billion per year comes under his direct control. By contrast, they said, over $24 bn of Iraqi oil revenues are under UN supervision.