IRAQ - The Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri Factor.

The No. 2 man in Saddam's fallen Ba'thist regime, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, is either dead as one Website message has said, or still alive as another claims. In any event, the Douri factor has become important to the Neo-Salafi effort to establish a Taliban-style emirate somewhere in Iraq's Sunni Arab Triangle. Asia Times Online (ATO) on Nov. 15 said the death of Douri marked a turning point in the Sunni insurgency, adding: "Command of the movement will now almost completely be in the hands of al-Qaeda, which will further cement its moves to fight a global war against America under a unified, open command".

Douri, 63, was dangerous enough for the US government offered a US$10m reward for information leading to his capture. According to a statement from the Ba'th Party, which the US has officially dissolved in Iraq, Douri died after a long battle with leukemia. The statement said: "After 50 years he spent in the militant struggle and in the resistance, ...Douri quits his horse going to the mercy of the Almighty God".

Douri was (or still is) a Sufi and a practicing shaikh (spiritual guide) of two major Sufi schools, Rafahi and Qadri. As a Ba'thist as well, he was a trusted comrade of Saddam. Though Saddam disliked such practices, ATO noted, every Monday he would hold a congregation for his disciples at his residence in Tikrit, where they would recite Sufi rituals. At Friday prayers in Baghdad "he would eloquently hold court in Shaikh Abdul Qadir Gillani's mosque". ATO continued: "Saddam thought that his close comrade from Oaja village near Tikrit was setting the wrong precedents for the secular image of the ...[Ba'th] party. However, Douri and his Sufi circle turned out to be a most useful tool when Iraq was invaded by the US in 2003".

Under Saddam's regime, Douri was vice-chairman of the ruling Revolutionary Command Council (RCC). Douri's family originated in the predominantly Sunni Arab town of al-Dour. He was the one who established co-ordination between the Ba'th Party, the Iraqi Republican Guards and local Islamic groups, not only in Falluja and Ba'quba, but also in northern Iraq, especially in Kirkuk. As many senior people around him were gradually arrested, including Saddam, Douri remained at large, mostly in northern Iraq, including the cities of Mosul, Tikrit, Samarra' and Kirkuk. At one time he escaped to Syria, but returned. One of his sons, Ahmad, became the main financial organiser of the Sunni/Ba'thist insurgency.

For a long time Douri was the acknowledged driver of the insurgency, but in the past few months little was heard of him. The speculation in the insurgency is that he has either died, or once again gone to Syria. His illness was well known - he travelled with a mobile medical unit able to change his blood wherever required. Douri's absence over the past months coincided with the period in which Islamic groups prevailed over the Sunni Arab insurgency and effectively took control.

After Douri, ATO said, "there is no one of his stature or knowledge to lead the remnants of Saddam's era". They have little option but to "stick with the command of the Islamic groups". Then the ATO article adds: "According to people familiar with al-Qaeda who spoke to Asia Times Online, al Qaeda, having acquired absolute control over the Iraqi resistance, aims to march toward its next targets. These include the establishment of a unified command based in Iraq and Afghanistan; to shed its shadowy image and call for jihad and recruitments throughout the Muslim world; and then wage a global battle against America and its allies in the open, contrary to its present strategy under which al-Qaeda, its leadership and operations are underground".