IRAQ - Rift Between The Arabs & Kurds.

For better or worse, the Dec. 15 elections will preserve the current status quo. The likelihood is they will show that Iraqis continued to vote along sectarian lines, with no real vision towards a united country. Temporarily, they will draw attention away from the monumental, irreconcilable rift which has developed between Iraq's Arabs and Kurds. Kurds are taking steps to consolidate their future independence; how Iraqi Arabs will react once the US stops providing them with security remains to be seen.

Control over Kurdistan's natural resources has been a demand of the Kurds since the fall of Saddam's regime. Perhaps naturally, Iraq's Arab majority has reacted un-enthusiastically.

During the writing of the constitution, Sunni Arabs argued vigorously that the country's resources should be shared by all Iraqis, claiming that ethnic control over resources would lead to an unraveling of the country. This was a particularly convenient argument considering the lack of developed natural resources in Sunni areas, and Kurdish voracity in regaining control of Kirkuk shortly after Baghdad's fall.

The exact power structure for resource control remains undecided, particularly with respect to newly discovered resources. This ambiguity has not prevented the Kurds from being bold with respect to their own territory.

In an unprecedented move, the Kurdistan Regional Government recently approved an oil exploration deal near the northern city of Zakho. While bombs were going off in Baghdad in the days before Dec. 15, in the north ribbons were being cut, inaugurating drilling operations. This was a stark reminder of how wide the gap is between the two parts of Iraq.

The ceremony came with a message from the northern region's prime minister: The central government would not get a piece of the pie. Politicians in Baghdad did not know how to react to the development.

Largely due to the surreptitious nature of the deal, there was no prior official discussion of its merits. Given the vagaries of the constitution on issues such as this, there was no sure way of telling whether the deal was even legal.

The drafters of the constitution intentionally avoided defining a clear policy on exploration and other similar endeavours. However, this matter cannot be ignored forever.

A recent statement by the President of Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, announcing that Kirkuk would be fully under Kurdish control by 2007, has added to the concerns of Iraq's Arab majority, which is keen to maintain control over resources within the country's borders.

A quote from a leading Arab politician in Baghdad is telling: "Kurdistan is running away from Iraq. What is the difference between them and an independent country now?" The difference may, at this stage, indeed be theoretical.

Iraq's Kurds are concentrating on things other than establishing security and stability in their region, making them markedly different from other Iraqis for the moment.

It is no accident that the preponderance of new hospitals, schools and government buildings being opened in Kurdistan are being given traditional Kurdish names. And Iraq's Kurds are consciously setting themselves apart from their Arab compatriots.

To that end, there is no support in the north for any non-Kurdish parties. Instead, once the election results are out, Kurds will most probably have put the same politicians in power who have long used fear of Arab domination to convince their constituencies to tolerate them.

The two leading Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), are seen by most Kurds as corrupt, as well as responsible for much of the disunity plaguing inter-Kurdish relations during the 1990s.

However, backing a new leadership is universally regarded today as unrealistic and untimely. This is due to a combination of Kurdish success in drafting the constitution, but also fear of the spread of instability to the north which would be fanned by the party leaders themselves.

Iraqi Arabs and Turkey now have their hands tied by the US with what they can do about the Kurds. But what happens when the Americans leave? Reports that the Kurdish Peshmerga forces are being trained by Israelis is not likely to ease their worries.

Some have predicted that the liberalism of the new constitution on federal rights is likely to reduce tensions and prevent violence. This analysis is overly optimistic.

The Sunnis' sense of injustice when it comes to the new power balance in Iraq will not be remedied by federalism. Some experts speculate that only when Iraqis learn to go their separate ways, will there be cause for optimism.

Federalism does not offer this separation. While the American public and military are impatient for US forces to withdraw, US policy blunders make it all the more necessary for them to stay.

Oil Found In Kurdistan: Less than a month after it began drilling its first well, the small Norwegian firm Det Norske Oljeselskap AS (DNO) on Dec. 22 said it found oil near Zakho, 250 miles north-east of Baghdad. The well was drilled under a deal between the Kurdish provincial government and DNO signed in 2004. The start of the project angered many Sunni Arabs, who called it a first step towards Kurdish secession from Iraq. DNO said it found the oil at a depth of about 1,150 feet and that drilling would continue to possible deeper reservoirs. It said the reservoir could be 2,600 feet thick.