IRAQ - Resurgence In The Shi'ite World - Part 8 - Civil War May Spread.

Gen. John Abizaid, head of US Central Command (CentCom) which oversees the Iraq war and other parts of the Middle East, on Aug. 3 told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that Iraq could descend into civil war if the recent surge in violence in Baghdad is not stopped. He said: "The sectarian [Shi'ite-Sunni] violence is probably as bad as I've seen it. If not stopped, it is possible Iraq could move towards civil war".

The danger is that the Shi'ite-Sunni violence may spread to other Middle East countries and across the 1.4 bn-strong Muslim world, as Shi'ites in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province have been demonstrating in support of an Iranian-sponsored Shi'ite group, Hizbullah, in its war with Israel in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni country of the Wahhabi order, from which very radical Neo-Salafi groups have emerged including al-Qaeda of Osama bin Laden.

Gen Abizaid was responding to a question about a leaked memo from William Patey, the outgoing British ambassador to Iraq, which warned that civil war was a more likely outcome in Iraq than the emergence of a stable democracy. Patey's memo to PM Tony Blair and his cabinet, leaked to the BBC on Aug. 3, added: "Even the lowered expectation of President [George W.] Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt".

Gen Abizaid's remarks prompted Sen. John Warner, the committee's influential Republican chairman, to suggest that Congress might have to re-examine the authority it gave the president to wage war in Iraq, saying: "I think we have to examine very carefully what Congress authorised the president to do in the context of a situation if we're faced with an all-out civil war and whether we have to come back to the Congress to get further indication of support".

Gen. Peter Pace - chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was testifying alongside Abizaid and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - agreed that Iraq could descend into civil war, though he said that outcome was not "probable". But under questioning from Sen. John McCain, a Republican and likely presidential contender, Pace conceded that a year ago he would not have considered even the possibility of civil war.

Some Republican senators joined Democrats in questioning whether the US military had expected a year ago that violence would be at the current levels, with an estimated daily death toll of 100 in Baghdad. The acknowledgments of increasing violence in Iraq come as the US military has had to delay the departure of some troops to bolster counter-insurgency efforts in Baghdad.

Gen Abizaid appeared to play down suggestions by Gen. George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq, that significant troop cuts could still be possible this year. Gen Abizaid said "some reductions in forces" were possible, but would depend on the situation in Baghdad.

Sen. McCain, who has often criticised Rumsfeld for not sending more troops, said he was concerned that the military was employing a strategy of "whack-a-mole" by redeploying troops from areas that are not under control to other violent areas. McCain said: "It's very disturbing. If it's all up to the Iraqi military, General Abizaid...then I wonder why we have to move troops into Baghdad to intervene in what is clearly sectarian violence". Sen. Hillary Clinton, a New York Democrat, lambasted Rumsfeld for what she said was his mishandling of the war.